HS 015

========= weather bulletin for the high seas for Metarea VII, east of 20e. Issued by the South African Weather Service on the 16th may 2012 at 16:00 UTC.

For southeast sector of Metarea VII, prepared by reunion, see area 2 below.

Note: wx observations. ====================== Could all vessels experiencing unexpected, severe wx/sea state please make every effort to report this to saws via cape town radio.

Area 1: ======= forecast valid from 162200 to 172200 utc:

Wind in knots, wave heights in metres. No sea state given if waves less than 3m.

Note the wind speeds quoted here are the expected average speeds. Individual gusts may exceed these values by a factor of up to 1.5. Wave heights are significant wave heights which may be accompanied by individual waves 1.5 to 2.0 times higher.

Gale warnings: ==============

1. Cape east: NW 35 to 40 in the southwest, becoming W to SW reaching 35, in the west at the end of the period. 2. Marion forties east: W to NW 35 to 40.

Synoptic situation at 12:00 UTC =============================== high 1026 hpa 27s02e high 1022 hpa 33s34e high 1022 hpa 34s52e low 994 hpa 44s06e low 986 hpa 50s35e low 1018 hpa 33s43e

1. Cold front: 33s10w 35s07w 40s03e into 44s06e 45s23e into 50s35e

Area forecast: ==============

Cape east (32.5s/40s, 20e/50e) wind : anti-cyclonic 05 to 15 in the northeast at first, otherwise NW 10 to 20, reaching 30 to 40 in the southwest, becoming W to SW 25 to 30, reaching 35, in the west at the end of the period. Vis : moderate in rain in the east at first, otherwise good, becoming poor in rain and showers in the southwest in the second half of the period. Sea : 3.5 to 4.5m, reaching 5.0 to 6.0m in the west at the end of the period, SW swell.

Durban east (25s/32.5s, East Coast/55e) wind : cyclonic 10 to 20 in the northwest at first, otherwise se 10 to 20, becoming N to NE 10 to 20 in the west. Vis : moderate in rain and showers, becoming good in the west. Sea state: 3.0 to 3.5m, mainly SW swell.

Mozambique channel: wind : se to SW 15 to 25. Vis : moderate in showers and thundershowers becoming good towards the end of the period.

Madagascar east: wind : E to se 15 to 25, but cyclonic 10 to 20 in the south. Vis : moderate to poor in showers and thundershowers.

Marion forties east: (40s/50s, 35e/50e) wind : W to NW 20 to 30, reaching 35 to 40. Vis : moderate to poor in showers and rain. Sea state: 4.5 to 5.5m reaching 6.0 to 7.0m at first, SW swell.

Area 2 ======= marine meteorological bulletin from Meteo-France/La Reunion on area ack (amsterdam-Crozet-kerguelen)

Date: 12/05/16 at 1700 UTC

Averaged wind speed on Beaufort scale. (Wind gusts may be stronger than averages given here).

Part 1: warning : nil.

Part 2: general synopsys, 12/05/16 a 1200 UTC : high 1021 hpa near 34s/48e slowly moving eastward. Deepening low 1008 hpa near 27s/66e, moving southeastward 10/15 kt with convergence line axis 22s/69e, 25s/71e, 30s/72e, 34s/69e. Waving cold front axis 46s/45e, 48s/50e, 47s/60e, 46s/70e, 48s/75e, 50s/78e, 55s/80e moving eastward 20/25 kt.

Part 3: forecast for 24 hours from 12/05/16 at 1800 UTC to 12/05/17 at 1800 UTC : wam (30s/40s,50e/65e) : scattered showers. Wind : anticlockwise 3 to 5. Sea : moderate. Moderate SW swell. Vis : good.

Ams (30s/40s,65e/80e) : showers and squalls over eastern area. Wind : becomming clockwise 5/6 then setting up S to SW 4/5 over western area. Sea : moderate to rough. Moderate SW swell. Vis : poor in precipitations.

Cro (40s/50s,50e/65e) : showers. Wind : W 5/6, locally 7. Sea : rough to very rough. Moderate to heavy SW swell. Vis : poor in showers.

Ker (40s/50s,65e/80e) : showers. Wind : W to NW 5 to 7. Sea : rough. Moderate to heavy SW swell. Vis : poor in showers.