Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas Nevada
958 am PDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014
Synopsis...a Pacific storm system will move across the area today
producing locally breezy south to southwest winds and some cloud
cover. High pressure will bring dry and warm conditions to the
region Wednesday and Thursday. The next storm system approaching the
coast Friday and Saturday will bring increasing southerly winds
while temperatures remain above normal.
Update...locally gusty southwest winds will affect mainly
Lincoln...Clark and Mohave counties today as an upper low over
southern Idaho lifts northeast into the northern rockies. Winds will
weaken tonight and Wednesday as high pressure starts to build over
the region. Tweaked the wind/wind gusts for the rest of
today...otherwise no changes.
230 am PDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014
Short term /through Thursday night/...
Shortwave current moving through northern Nevada with a few
thunderstorms occurring across portions of elko's forecast area.
Outside of a band of mainly high clouds pushing through Mohave
County this morning skies across our County Warning Area are generally clear. We are
expected to see an increase in high clouds this afternoon from the
west...but no precipitation is expected across the area. A weak cold
front will push through the northwest portions of the County Warning Area this
morning...but the models indicate that this front basically washes
out before reaching southern Nevada. Some gusty southwest winds are
expected over mainly Mohave County this afternoon...but most other
areas will mainly see winds in the 10-15 miles per hour range. We will see some
cooling today with readings down about 3-5 degrees from yesterday
and another 1-3 degrees lower on Wednesday. High pressure will start
to build in from the south Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures
starting to warm again on Thursday and dry conditions.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
High pressure at middle and upper levels will be in control
Friday...providing mostly clear skies and well above normal
temperatures. The high will break down and shift east Saturday as
low pressure approaches from the west. Gusty south-southwest winds
will increase across our west and north Friday...then area-wide
Saturday. As mentioned in the previous discussion...models are
indicating some downslope winds along the Sierra Saturday as the
trough axis begins shifting east. There remains some model
differences with the timing and strength of the trough. Our forecast
follows an ensemble approach generally splitting the difference.
So...a dry cold front is currently forecast to push across the
forecast area late Saturday through early Sunday. For those eagerly
awaiting cooler temperatures...mother nature has granted your wish.
On average...the entire area should see about a 10 degree drop in
high temperatures from Saturday to Sunday...taking US closer to
normal for this time of year. We will also see north-northwest
breezes Sunday...in the wake of the front. Some breezes down the
Colorado River valley are possible Monday...but elsewhere should see
lighter winds. High temperatures Monday will remain slightly above
Aviation...for McCarran...few-sct clouds at or above 20kft through much of
today. Southwest winds 10-15 kts for much of today then decreasing
For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...winds are expected to remain around 10kts or less
through the day over much of the area. Winds will be a little
stronger across Mohave County this afternoon with south to southwest
winds 10-18kts. Few-scattered clouds at or above 20kft.
Spotter information statement...spotter activation is not expected.
For more forecast information...see US on our webpage:
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