Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas Nevada
115 PM PDT Thursday Oct 8 2015
Synopsis...high pressure will keep dry and warm conditions across
the area through early next week. Periods of high clouds and well
above normal temperatures are expected. A storm system will bring
increased chances for rain and High Mountain snow late next week.
Discussion...through next Thursday.
Dry and warm weather is expected through early next week as a high
pressure ridge strengthens over California and the Great Basin. This
ridge is a dirty ridge...which means despite the high pressure we
will still be susceptible to periods of middle and high clouds passing
through from storm systems to our north. Nonetheless...temperatures
will be warming 5 to 8 degrees above seasonal normals.
The more interesting part of the forecast comes midweek Onward as
the same storm system which recently brought widespread rain to the
region October 4th-6th retrogrades across northern Mexico and
emerges over the Pacific by late this weekend. Forecast models then
have it making a complete loop as it approaches the Southern
California coast and then moves inland across the southwest....could
this be round two? For now...major forecast models are in pretty
good agreement on this scenario and I have trended the forecast in
this direction. Slight chance probability of precipitation begin across southern zones
Wednesday night before spreading across entire region Thursday and
Friday. Cut off lows like this do have a tendency to be squirely
and poorly handled by our forecast models...so forecast confidence
on timing and details will likely remain on the lower end for
several days before things become more clear. Stay tuned.
Aviation...for McCarran...scattered clouds above 25k feet expected
overnight but otherwise fair weather. Winds will tend to favor
diurnal patterns with northeast winds to 10kts this evening becoming
light and southerly overnight. Similar conditions expected tomorrow
with northeast winds to 10kts expected through the day under scattered-broken
high cloud cover.
For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California... light winds favoring diurnal trends expected through
Friday evening. Locally gusty north wind conditions are possible at
kifp. Periods of scattered-broken cirrus at or above 25k feet
expected...especially after 12z Friday.
Spotter information statement...spotter activation is not expected.
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