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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Las Vegas Nevada
145 am PST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

Synopsis...cool conditions with scattered rain and mountain snow
showers will persist today as a trough pushes through the region.
Drier conditions and slightly warmer weather is expected Thursday
before a marked warming trend commences Friday. Over the weekend
high temperatures will rise above normal thanks to high pressure
building across the West Coast...and staying put through early next
week.

&&

Short term...today through Wednesday night.

Shower activity has diminished this morning across most of the
forecast area with the exception of some light returns showing up on
radar across northern Mohave County. I expect that with return of
daytime heating after sunrise this morning things will quickly liven
up again as the trough axis remains overhead and an additional
shortwave pushes through the Great Basin. With the trough axis
passing directly overhead and 500mb temperatures in the -25c to -28c
range...there will once again be marginal instability present to
support a few lightning strikes and perhaps a stronger updraft or
two may produce some small hail.

The shortwave driving this activity along with the entire trough
axis which stretches all the way down into the Baja California will begin to
shift eastward by late afternoon. Drier and more stable air will
invade from northwest to southeast with shower and thunderstorm
chances becoming limited to Mohave County by late in the evening
where a few lingering showers will be possible through the early
overnight period. As the trough exits...a push of northerly winds
will follow as high pressure builds in behind the storm system.
These northerly winds will be strongest down the Colorado River late
Wednesday night through early Thursday morning before slowly
subsiding by early Thursday morning.

Long term...Thursday through Monday.

The medium range models continue to show an amplified ridge along
the West Coast Thursday that will slowly migrate inland over the
weekend and early next week providing dry and mild weather for our
forecast area. A weak upper low is forecast to develop near the base
of the ridge over northern Baja California Thursday through Friday/Saturday
which will lead to periods of north breezes...especially down the
Colorado River valley near Laughlin and Bullhead City. Temperatures
will begin a noticeable warming trend with highs climbing back into
the 70s across the Mojave Desert region for the weekend.

&&

Aviation...for McCarran...skies have cleared overnight with light
and somewhat variable winds. This trend will continue through 19z
before the atmosphere begins to destabilize again with isolated
showers breaking out in the vicinity. Ceilings in the 5-6kft range will
be possible with any activity in the immediate vicinity of the
airfield but broken ceilings in the 7-8kft range will be predominant. West
to southwest winds of 9 to 12 kts favored in the afternoon but
direction and speed may be variable at times due to shower activity
in the area. Improving conditions expected after 00z with a push of
northerly winds expected after 3z.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...scattered showers again possible today especially east
of a line from kdag-kdra-kely. Isolated thunderstorms possible with
strong updrafts and gusty surface winds. Ceilings near shower activity
will range from 4-6kft. A push of northerly winds expected Tuesday
night into Wednesday with winds of 15-25kts possible down the
Colorado River valley.

&&

Spotter information statement...spotters are requested to report
any significant weather according to Standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Short term/aviation...outler
long term...Adair

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