Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas Nevada
928 am PDT Friday may 24 2013
Synopsis...a large area of low pressure will remain over the
Pacific northwest through the upcoming Holiday weekend with a dry
southwest flow over the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert.
Mostly clear skies and near normal temperatures can be expected
along with locally breezy conditions each afternoon.
&&
Update...sunny with near normal temperatures today. Winds a bit lighter
than yesterday but still locally breezy this afternoon. No updates
anticipated this morning. -Harrison-
&&
Previous discussion...
248 am PDT Friday may 24 2013
Short term...today through Sunday night...the upper low which has
been entrenched over the Pacific northwest the past few days will
shift slightly to the north today. However the overall pattern of
keeping a trough over the western states will remain in place
through the upcoming Holiday weekend. Although variable high level
moisture will be seen at times...overall the weather pattern will
keep dry southwest flow over the County Warning Area through the period. Winds will
be somewhat lighter today as the low lifts further north and
gradients relax somewhat...however another short wave rotating
through the trough is expected to push into the region on Saturday
with potentially another short wave on Sunday. These two short waves
may enhance winds a bit both days. Overall though it appears that
winds will remain below advisory levels...but breezy to locally
windy conditions will be seen over the weekend. Temperatures are
expected to be below normal with Sunday being the coolest day during
the short term with temperatures generally 5-8 degrees below normal.
Long term...models continue to indicate a longwave trough pattern
over the West Coast during much of the extended period. A shortwave
dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska is still forecast to push into
the Great Basin and Mojave Desert late Monday and Tuesday. Models
are in good agreement that for the most part the trajectory of the
shortwave will take a more inland track and not really dig off the
California coast. This likely means that although we will see
isolated showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon...additional
Pacific moisture will not be pulled in and any precipitation will
mainly remain over the higher elevations and more likely over the
northern half of the County Warning Area. Still...left slight chance probability of precipitation in for
most of the County Warning Area to allow for any deviation to the track.
Temperatures will likely cool several degrees and its possible that
highs on Tuesday will be around 10 degrees below normal. This
shortwave will start to exit the area Wednesday with some lingering
moisture over the eastern half of the County Warning Area. The area will still
remain under a cool northwest flow through Thursday with
temperatures slowly rebounding close to normal. Models do indicate a
weak shortwave ridge moving into the area Friday which will bring
temperatures back to slightly above normal.
&&
Aviation...for McCarran...south winds between 8-12 kts into the
early afternoon before increasing to around 10-20 kts during the
afternoon. Skies will remain clear.
For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...winds generally under 10 kts most locations through middle
morning before increasing once again this afternoon. South to
southwest winds around 15-25 kts are forecast from early afternoon
into early evening. Skies will remain clear.
&&
Fire weather...the upper low which has been nearly stationary over
the Pacific northwest the past few days will continue through much
of the upcoming Holiday weekend. This will result in continued
breezy southwest winds across the district through the weekend. At
this time it appears that winds will remain below critical
thresholds. However...very dry conditions will continue with minimum
relative humidity values lowering to below 10 percent across much of
the district.
&&
Vef watches/warnings/advisories...
Nevada...none.
Arizona...none.
California...none.
&&
$$
Jensen/gorelow
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