Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas Nevada
910 am PST sun Mar 9 2014
Synopsis...considerable high clouds will be seen through Monday
ahead of a cold front pushing into northern California. Breezy to
windy conditions will develop Monday as the cold front moves through
Nevada. Gusty north winds will linger into Tuesday along with cooler
temperatures. There will be a slight chance of showers over the
Sierra Nevada and the portions of the southern Great Basin Monday
night and Tuesday. A north wind will continue...especially within
the Colorado River through Thursday...however temperatures will warm
by weeks end.
Update...high clouds continue to spread east this morning with most
of the southeast third of the County Warning Area under generally thin cirrus.
However...thicker cirrus was covering the western half of the
forecast area and that may be enough to hold temperatures down a few
degrees across those areas from yesterday. The current grids take in
account for the lower temperatures already and no updates needed at
320 am PST sun Mar 9 2014
Short term...through Tuesday night...positive tilt ridge over the
area will be overrun by high clouds today. Satellite shows leading
edge of high clouds which is associated with a plume of moisture
over the eastern Pacific was advancing east across Nevada and
southeast California. Northwest Arizona is clear early this
morning...however high clouds will continue to spread east
throughout the day. We are looking at lighter winds areawide today
with temperatures similar to Saturday.
Ridge will be suppressed south on Monday as models bring an open
wave across northern Nevada. Any precipitation with the passage of
this wave will be confined to areas which border our neighboring
offices of Reno and Elko. Or more specifically...the eastern slopes
of the southern Sierra of Inyo County...Esmeralda and northern
Lincoln counties. Main affect from this system will be around round
of gusty winds. Southwest-west winds will increase Monday
afternoon/evening ahead of a cold front across northern Nevada.
There could be a brief opportunity for some downslope winds in the
Lee of the southern Sierra but at this time signature is not looking
that strong. The cold front will sweep southeast through the
southern Great Basin Monday evening. Latest hi-res run of the models
suggests frontal passage in Las Vegas would be around midnight. The
front then should clear the lower Colorado River valley and
northwest Arizona by 12z Tuesday morning. We will be analyzing the
need for either a Wind Advisory or lake Wind Advisory for the Lake
Mead nra and lower Colorado Tuesday. Monday will be the warmest day
with temperatures generally falling 5-10 degrees on Tuesday.
Long term...Wednesday through Saturday...weak low pressure aloft
will dig southward across southern Nevada and northern Arizona
Wednesday. This low will be starved of any significant moisture but
may result in some scattered cloud cover midweek...especially in the
eastern half of the forecast area. By Friday the low will depart to
the east with a ridge of high pressure building in across the West
Coast. This will result in continued dry conditions with
temperatures gradually rebounding to above normal values on Friday.
Latest extended guidance builds some very high heights into the
southwest by next weekend which may result in temperatures rising
well above normal...possibly into the 80s across the Las Vegas
Valley and near 90 along the lower Colorado River. Whether this
materializes remains to be seen but above normal temperatures are a
good bet for next weekend.
Aviation...for McCarran...southwest winds expected into the morning
before becoming light and variable after 16z. The wind should remain
relatively light under 8 kts through the day. Increasing high clouds
throughout the day.
For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...north winds around 10 kts in the Colorado River valley
into Sunday morning...otherwise lighter winds generally under 10 kts
are expected areawide. An increase in mainly high clouds will
be seen over much of the area today.
For more forecast information...see US on our webpage:
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