Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas Nevada
840 PM PST Tuesday Mar 3 2015
Synopsis...tonight will mark the beginning of an extended dry
period that is expected to last through the weekend into early next
week. Temperatures will remain below normal Wednesday and Thursday
then warm considerably for Friday and the weekend.
Update...some lingering showers remain across areas generally along
and south of Interstate 15. Some light showers are currently moving
through the southern half of the Las Vegas Valley with amounts
between a trace and a single hundredth of inch falling out of them.
Clearing is evident to the north of this activity which will
continue to push southward tonight. I have updated the forecast to
retain isolated showers later into the night as the trough axis
pushes through. Otherwise watching the transition of winds across
our forecast area as north winds push in. Over all the forecast is
in good shape.
Short term...tonight through Friday night.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible through sunset
or shortly thereafter with a noticeable downtrend this evening. The
showers that rolled through the valley this afternoon produced from
a trace to a tenth of an inch of rain along with gusty winds, a few
lightning strikes and some small hail.
Skies will clear from north to south overnight with dry conditions
expected on Wednesday. A cold front draped across the north this
afternoon will push south through the area through the rest of the
afternoon and tonight. This will bring north winds to much of the
area for Wednesday with the strongest winds in the favored Colorado
River valley. Wind speeds should stay sub-advisory levels based on
the latest model forecasts/guidance and no wind hazard products are
anticipated. Mostly clear and dry conditions are forecast Thursday
and Friday with a few high clouds filtering in from the north on
Behind the cold front, Wednesday will see high temperatures remain
8-10 degrees below normal but will then begin to trend upwards
Thursday and especially Friday when highs will warm to above normal
Long term...Saturday through Tuesday...ridging over the West Coast
will hold through the period with dry weather...light winds...and a
warming trend. High temperatures should be at least in the middle 70s for klas
by early next week...perhaps even warmer if the GFS MOS is right.
Aviation...for McCarran...few clouds in the 4-6 kft range but broken
ceilings in the 7-8 kft range will be predominant. Winds should return
to a southwest to west direction around 8-10 kts but could begin
favoring a more northwest direction by the end of the afternoon. Any
shower activity could bring variable wind direction and speed at
times through sunset. Sky conditions will improve by midnight.
Northerly winds are expected overnight then becoming predominantly
northeast at 8-12 kts on Wednesday.
For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...scattered showers and isolated storms are possible
through the afternoon especially east of a line from kdag-kdra-kely.
Ceilings near shower activity will generally range from 4-6 kft. North
winds will push from north to south across the area tonight and
continue into Wednesday. Winds in the Colorado River valley are
expected to be 15-25 kts with higher gusts Wednesday.
Spotter information statement...spotters are requested to report
any significant weather according to Standard operating procedures.
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