Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas Nevada
130 am PST Friday Feb 12 2016
Synopsis...warm and dry conditions will continue across the region
through early next week. Breezy conditions will occur along the
lower Colorado valley, especially on Sunday and Monday. The next
chance for precipitation comes late next week as a storm system
moves through the area.
Short term...through Sunday night.
High pressure will begin to flatten today as a shortwave trough
moves into the Pacific northwest. Overall there will be very little
overall change from what we saw yesterday with the exception of a
few more high clouds. With the lower heights we will see some
slightly cooler temperatures Saturday and Sunday with temperatures
down about 1-3 degrees. The main effects from this shortwave will be
increasing winds Saturday night into Monday. Most areas will only
see a slight increase in north to northeast winds...but gusty winds
will be felt down the Colorado River valley especially Sunday into
Monday. Although winds will be gusty they are expected to remain
below any advisory levels.
Long term...Monday through Thursday.
Still looks like a pattern change is on the way in the long
term...but the details remain uncertain. Models are in very good
agreement through Wednesday with increasing spread thereafter. For
Monday...upper level ridge off the West Coast will bring northerly
flow aloft. Combined with surface high pressure over the Great
Basin...this will bring gusty north winds down the Colorado River
valley again. The gradient flops over to a northeast-southwest
orientation Tuesday as the upper level ridge moves overhead...so
winds will decrease. The ridge then progresses eastward on Wednesday
as low pressure approaches the California coast. As noted
earlier...the models begin to diverge quite a bit at this
point...with significant differences in how deep the low will be and
how quickly it will pass through. Precipitation chances could begin in the
Sierra as early as Wednesday...with better chances for at least the
northwest half of the County Warning Area on Thursday. If the deeper/slower
solutions verify better...precipitation chances would be delayed until
perhaps Thursday night or beyond...and would also spread south to
include the Mojave Desert. Temperatures will remain well above
normal at least through Wednesday...and perhaps Thursday if the low
is slower to arrive.
Aviation...for McCarran...light winds driven by diurnal processes
will be in control through the end of the week. Winds will remain
at or below 6 kts through Friday night.
For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...keed and kifp will continue to see somewhat stronger
northerly winds during the day but should be at or below 10 kts during the
overnight hours. Diurnally driven winds will continue at the
Spotter information statement...spotter activation is not expected.
Please report any significant weather according to Standard operating
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