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Area forecast discussion for western South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming 
National Weather Service Rapid City South Dakota
1034 am MST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

Short term...today through Wednesday night
issued at 157 am MST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

Strong northwest flow continues over the central states...with a
120 knots upper jet between the low over the Great Lakes and the
ridge over the western Continental U.S.. middle-level clouds are streaming
through the northern plains...possibly producing a few flurries
across central South Dakota along the stationary boundary. Winds are
light..and temperatures are in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Scattered flurries will continue this morning across west central South Dakota
and the Northern Hills. Chances of rain/snow will be possible this
afternoon and evening along the baroclinic zone as moisture
increases and weak upper energy passes over the area. Profiles
continue to indicate the possibility of freezing rain this evening
across central South Dakota...so have added mention in grids. Highs today
will range from the lower 30s across south central South Dakota...to the
upper 40s farther west.

Winds will become westerly early Wednesday as weak surface low
slides into South Dakota...and warm air will advect into the area. Highs will
be in the middle 40s to middle 50s...warmest along the eastern foothills.
Cooler air begins pushing into the region during the afternoon
with breezy northwest winds. Lows Wednesday night will be in the
20s.

Long term...Thursday through Monday
issued at 157 am MST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

An upper ridge over the western Continental U.S. Will create amplified
northwest flow aloft on Thursday and Friday. Middle level impulses
passing to the east of the forecast area will push a backdoor cold
front into central and western South Dakota with the eastern half
of the forecast area cooling down Friday and Saturday. The upper
trough will cross the region on Saturday followed by an upper
trough that will bring low chances of rain or snow on Saturday
night and Sunday. Mild and dry northwest flow will redevelop behind the
departing upper trough as the Arctic air will remain bottled to
the north due to flow blocking over central Canada. Overall...look
for mild conds for much of the area Wed-thur...with cooler temperatures
over the eastern half Friday-Sat before mild weather returns to all
areas early next week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z wednesday)
issued at 1030 am MST Tuesday Feb 9 2016

VFR conditions will prevail over most of the area today.
Scattered rain/snow showers are expected over parts of central
South Dakota through the afternoon. MVFR ceilings are possible with
any showers. There is a slight chance of freezing drizzle over
central South Dakota overnight tonight...mainly from Lemmon to White River
and east.

&&

Unr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.
Wyoming...none.
&&

$$

Short term...pojorlie
long term...10
aviation...jc

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