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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
528 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WITH 
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SWRLY FLOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A SECOND TROUGH 
IS MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NW. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHRA/TSRA 
MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE LBF CWA. THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH WILL DEEPEN 
AND CUT OFF TONIGHT AS THE FOUR CORNER LOW BEGINS ITS PHASE IN 
TRANSITION. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT N/NE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TONIGHT 
AND NRN PLAIN WED/WED NIGHT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE 
FORCING WILL BRING IS PRECIP TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. 
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED TSTORMS...WILL MOVE INTO SCNTRL 
THIS EVENING...AND WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REST OF THE CWA LATE 
TONIGHT OR WED MORNING. AS THE LOW SWINGS BY THE DAKOTA WED...COOLER 
AIR WILL WRAP AROUND AND PUSH ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE 
AFTERNOON HOUR TOMORROW. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING THE BEST 
CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THIS EVENT AS HEAVIER SHOWERS AND SOME 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRECIP WILL 
GRADUALLY DECREASE WED NIGHT AS THE OPEN WAVE LIFTS NORTH INTO 
ND/CAN. WHEN ITS ALL SAID AND DONE IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL SEE 
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN...WITH PERHAPS SOME AREAS GETTING MORE 
THAN THIS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OVER CALIFORNIA...WEAK ENERGY WILL EJECT
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AROUND
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH THE ECM
AND GFS ARE WRAPPING COOLER AIR AROUND THE LOW INTO THE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C.
THIS COULD MEAN SOME PRECIP FALLS AS SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS...BUT STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM.

TEMPERATURES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY 
BELOW AVERAGE...IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND 
PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

SCATTERED/NUMEROUS -SHRA/ISOLATED -TSRA WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN SD THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD -RA WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ON THE PLAINS AND IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...HELGESON

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