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Area forecast discussion for western South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming 
National Weather Service Rapid City South Dakota
1133 am MDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

Short through Friday night
issued at 245 am MDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

Current surface map shows high pressure ridge across Montana into
western Dakotas. Initial upper level shortwave currently crossing
the western Dakotas...with bulk of thunderstorm activity east and
south of the forecast area. A weak secondary shortwave crosses the
area this afternoon. Sufficient instability for scattered
thunderstorms. Surface high builds across the area tonight...then
shifts eastward for Friday. Isolated thunderstorms possible for
the Black Hills Friday afternoon/early evening.

Long term...Saturday through Wednesday
issued at 245 am MDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

Under northwest flow aloft...very warm and mostly dry
weather is expected on Independence day...with isolated
showers/storms possible...especially over the Black Hills area.
Stronger shortwave energy is prognosticated to rotate around a Canadian low
pressure system on Sunday...along with a cold front...bringing more
widespread and better chances for showers and storms Sunday into
Sunday night. Flow aloft early next week will become more
zonal...which could bring weak disturbances across the area during
this time and result in near daily chances of precipitation. Will keep low
chance probability of precipitation across much of the area...especially southern and
western portions of the County Warning Area. Temperatures should be slightly below
average next week.


Aviation...for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday
issued at 1133 am MDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

VFR conditions generally expected this afternoon and tonight.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon from the Black Hills eastward...generally dissipating by
early evening. Local MVFR conditions are possible with any heavier


Unr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


Short term...7
long term...pojorlie

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