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Area forecast discussion for western South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming 
National Weather Service Rapid City South Dakota
412 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Short term...this evening through Wednesday night
issued at 241 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Dry weather will continue through the short term as the upper ridge
currently over the western Continental U.S. Shifts slowly eastward toward the
forecast area. Northwest flow aloft downstream of the ridge will
bring only some high clouds to the forecast. High temperatures on
Wednesday will be warmer than average...with the warmest temperatures
closest to the thermal axis over northeastern Wyoming and far
western South Dakota. Lows at night will be in the upper 40s to
upper 50s.


Long term...Thursday through Tuesday
issued at 241 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

Upper level ridge remains over plains Thursday...for our warmest day
of the week with highs well into the 80s on the plains. Ridge
flattens Friday as an upper trough approaches the north central U.S.
While a cold front crosses the northern plains...bringing a
chance of showers through early Saturday morning. Instability
parameters are thunder not likely during the late
night/early morning...but an isolated thunderstorm is possible
during the warmer afternoon and evening hours. Surface high builds
in quickly and clears skies behind the front Saturday. Models differ
on the strength of the trough...with the GFS showing deeper trough and
stronger upper ridge rebounding over the western u... a more
cyclonic northwest flow over forecast area Saturday...which would be
cooler than European model (ecmwf) anti-cyclonic flow. Temperatures will be slightly
below normal...but still pleasant. European model (ecmwf) position of the closed low
over Great Basin next week could result in some precipitation.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 411 PM MDT Tuesday Sep 16 2014

VFR conditions will continue next 24 hours.


Unr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


long term...55

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