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Area forecast discussion for western South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming 
National Weather Service Rapid City South Dakota
227 am MST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

Short through Thursday night
issued at 216 am MST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

Water vapor shows upper ridge axis over the northern plains...with a
strong wave flattening the ridge over the northern rockies. Another
wave is noted over southwestern Wyoming. At the surface...Lee trough has advanced
through the western Dakotas...with cold front pushing into northern Montana.

Today...cold front over northern Montana will move quickly southeastward and cross the
County warning forecast area during the afternoon hours. Winds will increase by late morning as
850mb winds of 40-45kts attempt to mix towards the surface...with
winds increasing further this afternoon behind the cold front as lapse rates
steepen. Current Wind Advisory looks good. Could be a few -shra
from northestern Wyoming through the Black Hills into southwestern South Dakota as wave currently
over southwestern Wyoming moves eastward...but moisture is limited. Temperatures will be
quite mild again today...but still about 10-15f degrees cooler
than yesterdays record breaking warmth.

Tonight...winds will decrease during the evening with surface high
settling into the western zones by morning.

Thursday...plenty of insolation expected with surface high covering
the northern plains. It will be noticeably cooler with temperatures in the middle
30s to middle 40s.

Long term...Friday through Tuesday
issued at 216 am MST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

One more above average day is expected on Friday...with
highs in the 40s to around 50 degrees. Medium range models are in
better agreement on a stronger cooldown for this weekend and early
next week...though GFS ensemble still shows a fairly large spread of
possible temperatures through the period. Northwest flow will bring a
Canadian cold front across the area early on Saturday. Shortwave
energy behind the front will bring a chance for snow Saturday into
Saturday night. Any accumulations look to be light across the area.
Northwest flow aloft will continue to bring weak disturbances across
the area through the rest of the extended...with considerable cloud
cover and at least some low chances for probability of precipitation across portions of the
area...mostly far northeast Wyoming...the Black Hills...and far northwest
South Dakota. High temperatures will be near average on Saturday...then generally
below average from Sunday through Tuesday.


Aviation...for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning
issued at 216 am MST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

VFR conditions can be expected through the forecast
period. A passing cold front will bring gusty northwest winds of 15
to 30 kts with gusts to 40 kts late this morning and afternoon...
strongest winds over the western South Dakota plains. There will also be a
chance for light rain showers across northeast Wyoming and southwest South Dakota
during the day.


Unr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...Wind Advisory from 11 am this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
for sdz001-002-012>014-025-026-031-032-072-073.



Short term...Johnson
long term...26

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