Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion for western South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming 
National Weather Service Rapid City South Dakota
1033 am MST Monday Feb 8 2016

Short through Tuesday night
issued at 219 am MST Monday Feb 8 2016

Upper low spins over Wisconsin...with strong ridge building over
the West Coast...and fast northwest flow in between. Still a
fairly tight pressure gradient across the County Warning Area. Winds have
decreased but still remain breezy at 20-30 kts. Under mostly clear
skies...temperatures are in the 20s.

Region will stay under strong northwest upper flow early this week.
Breezy northwest winds of 20-30 kts will continue across the South Dakota
plains today...strongest across south central South Dakota where low-end
advisory criteria may be met. Highs will be in the 30s to lower
40s...under increasingly cloudy skies.

On Tuesday...upper ridge begins transitioning eastward...and warmer
air will advect in from the west. Baroclinic zone will set up across
western/central South Dakota...and as some midlevel moisture and weak upper
energy move over the region...may be a band of light rain/snow
showers across the eastern County Warning Area through the day and into the night.
May also be some light upslope showers over the Northern Hills.
Overall these areas may see an inch of snow by Wednesday morning.
Highs Tuesday will range from the lower 30s across south central South Dakota
to the upper 40s across northeastern Wyoming.

Long term...Wednesday through Sunday
issued at 219 am MST Monday Feb 8 2016

Very mild temperatures expected on Wednesday as thermal ridge builds
into our western zones and west/northwest bl flow (downslope) prevails. An upper
level disturbance embedded in the fast northwest flow aloft will cross the
northern plains on Thursday and push a backdoor cold front into the County warning forecast area. Some
light precipitation possible within the baroclinic zone but nothing
significant anticipated. This cold front will lead to a wide range
of temperatures from west to east Thursday and Friday...and dependent on
how far west the frontal boundary ends up. A weak upper level trough
will cross the northern plains late Saturday into Sunday and could bring
some light precipitation to our far western zones...but moisture will be
limited. Temperatures over the weekend will generally be above average.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z tuesday)
issued at 1032 am MST Monday Feb 8 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period. Gusty northwest
winds up to 35kts expected through the day...primarily on the South Dakota
plains. Some wind shear is expected on the Wyoming plains this evening
as strong flow remains above the surface.


Unr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


Short term...pojorlie
long term...Johnson

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations