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Area forecast discussion for western South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming 
National Weather Service Rapid City South Dakota
1038 am MST sun Feb 14 2016

Short through Monday night
issued at 302 am MST sun Feb 14 2016

Strong shortwave which brought yesterdays weather is now pushing
toward the MS River Valley. Behind it...northwest flow continues across the
western half of the Continental U.S.. the next wave is crossing the northern rockies and
will push into the region this aftn/evng. This system will bring
chances of precipitation to the area again today. With highs reaching the
40s to lower 50s...precipitation will fall as rain. Upslope enhanced precipitation
will develop across the northern Black Hills this afternoon and evening. Rain across
the Black Hills will change to snow across higher elevations late today
into the evening as temperatures cool off. Precipitation will end areawide late
tonight as the wave pushes E/se. Monday will be a repeat of todays
weather. The next wave will come in from the northwest and cross the region
late Monday into Monday night. This will again bring rain showers to
the area. Strong upsloping over the northern Black Hills will
redevelop...first as rain then changing to snow late in the day.
Highs will be in the middle 40s to middle 50s. Precipitation will gradually
weaken Monday night but linger across portions of the area.

Long term...Tuesday through Saturday
issued at 302 am MST sun Feb 14 2016

Eastern noam mean trough will breakdown in the period...allowing
mean ridging to spread east into central noam. This will result in
a trend to mild/dry conds by middle week as staunch warm air advection spreads into
the northern plains. Before this occurs...another northwest flow impulse
will advect across the northern plains...supporting rain/snow showers
Tuesday. Warm weather can be expected by Wednesday and especially Thursday. Highs
across the forecast area Thursday look to approach and pass 70 at some
locations...especially in the Lee of the bh/S and east where downsloping
will be in place ahead of a deeper upper trough which will arrive
Thursday night/Fri. Retained low chance for rain showers Tuesday night with frontal passage.
Otherwise...thur-Fri low pressure system will support breezy
conds. Active jet across the Pacific looks to support mild zonal flow
next weekend and beyond...keeping Arctic air bottled up in
northern Canada as ridging remains confined to lower latitudes.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z monday)
issued at 1029 am MST sun Feb 14 2016

Mainly VFR conditions expected through forecast period. Shortwave
trough moving through area today...supporting scattered shra/shsn.
Isolated MVFR/IFR ceilings/visible are possible in areas of heavier
precipitation...mainly in northeastern Wyoming and the Black Hills
region. Showers should end across the region by 03z.


Unr watches/warnings/advisories...
South Dakota...none.


Short term...13
long term...jc

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