Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
300 am MST Monday Jul 6 2015
Synopsis...a Pacific low pressure system off the California coast
will bring drier air in from the west the next couple of days. This
will result in a general decrease in thunderstorm activity. Daytime
temperatures will remain close to seasonal normals.
Discussion...Southeast Arizona has been void of showers and
thunderstorms early this morning unlike the past few mornings. A
complex of thunderstorms over northwest Arizona had produced outflow
that was tracking southward toward Phoenix. Thunderstorms were
developing along the outflow boundary northwest and west of Phoenix.
Not sure this outlow will make it as far south as Tucson...but it
will be something to watch for this morning. Otherwise...the overall
weather pattern will call for a decrease in thunderstorm activity
this week compared to last week and over the weekend. A drier
southwest flow will increase across the area as a low pressure
system enters central California and eventually tracks into the
Great Basin region by Friday. Daytime temperatures will remain near
or slightly below normal this week.
Aviation...valid through 07/12z.
Scattered cloud bases around 12-14 kft above ground level this am as drier air moves in
from the west. Expect scattered -tsra/-shra with wind gusts of 35-45 kts
and local MVFR conds near thunderstorms and rain between 06/19z and 07/04z mainly from ktus east
and S. Otherwise...cloud decks this afternoon and evening will mainly be
at or above 8k feet above ground level. Surface wind will generally be less than 10 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening mainly from Tucson east and south. Thereafter...somewhat
reduced coverage of showers and thunderstorms should prevail
starting Tuesday and continuing into next weekend.
Otherwise...generally light terrain driven winds will prevail
outside of thunderstorm influences.
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