Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
230 PM MST sun Mar 29 2015
Synopsis...strong high pressure aloft will provide near record high
temperatures again today. A few showers are expected mainly east of
Tucson Monday and Monday night. Gusty winds at times the second half
of the week, especially Thursday. Otherwise expect dry conditions
with continued above average temperatures during the latter part of
Discussion...regional ridge continues to drive our weather today
with near record high temperatures this afternoon. Southwesterly
flow aloft on the back side of the portion of the ridge near our
latitude is bringing in dense patches of cirrus level moisture,
otherwise we're pretty dry with precipitable water values around 1/4
of an inch and surface dew points in the teens and 20s.
As a weak low approaches northwest Mexico from the Pacific, some
modest moisture increase should bring our precipitable water values
to around .5 and dew points into the 30s over the next 36 hours.
Probably enough for a few showers mainly east of Tucson by Monday
afternoon or evening.
Troughiness developing through most of the Continental U.S. West of the
Mississippi the second half of the week. However, as is often the
case in a transition season, most of the energy and cool air will be
slated for central and northern portions of the west. For US expect
a nearly zonal flow with enough height and thickness falls to drop
US back toward climatology the second half of the week. More
notably, gusty winds may create some fire weather concerns in
eastern areas Thursday.
Aviation...valid through 30/23z.
VFR conditions will prevail through Monday afternoon. Expect broken-overcast
clouds at or above 20k feet above ground level through 30/12z...then scattered clouds at 10-15k feet above ground level
and broken-overcast clouds at or above 20k feet above ground level. There will be a slight chance of
-shra/-tsra mainly in the higher terrain east of ktus after 30/12z.
Surface wind will be less than 10 kts through 30/18z. After 30/18z...
expect southwesterly-northwesterly surface wind at 8-15 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...there is a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain to the east of Tucson
Monday and Monday night. Otherwise...dry conditions with well above
average daytime temperatures will prevail this week. Expect light
terrain driven winds through Tuesday. Afternoon breeziness will then
be the rule Wednesday through Friday. The strongest wind is expected
on Thursday as a system moves north of the area.
Climate...record or near record high temperatures across Southeast
Arizona again today and possibly Monday in some locations.
Temperatures about 15 degrees above climate normals.
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