Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
215 am MST Wednesday may 27 2015
Synopsis...we'll see dry conditions with a warming trend into early
next week. High temperatures will approach or exceed 100 degrees
this weekend for Tucson and the lower deserts...with middle to upper
Discussion...satellite imagery this morning showed high cloud
spreading in from the west associated with a weak upper level
disturbance approaching northern Baja California. So expect a partly sunny to partly
cloudy day with highs similar to what occurred on Tuesday. Trofiness
will remain over the state on Thursday with highs similar to today.
Upper ridge axis building into California on Friday will move over
the state this weekend...bringing triple digit high temperatures to
the lower deserts including Tucson.
Moisture push across New Mexico this weekend will bring some cloud
buildups over the higher terrain Sunday into early next week.
Possible push of moisture from the tropics associated with a
tropical system south of Baja California. After several days of consistency
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian now showing wide spread on where this system may
end up. Wait and see period.
Aviation...valid through 28/12z. Scattered-broken high clouds above 20k feet above ground level.
Surface wind less than 10 kts through 27/18z...then southwesterly/westerly surface
wind at 10-15 kts with some gusts to 20-25 kts until 28/03z. Strongest
surface wind in the vicinity of kols...kfhu and kdug. After 28/03z...
surface wind generally less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for taf amendments.
Fire weather...dry conditions are expected through the rest of the
work week...with a slight chance of showers and/or thunderstorms in
the White Mountains and along the New Mexico border this weekend
into early next week. Daytime minimum relative humidity values will
generally be in the single digits to middle teens. A little stronger
winds are expected this afternoon east/southeast of Tucson...over
portions of Santa Cruz...Graham and Cochise counties. Otherwise...
expect normal diurnal wind trends this week...with some gustiness
during the afternoon and early evening hours due to strong daytime
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