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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
300 am MST Sat Aug 30 2014

Synopsis...mostly and dry conditions will continue
through the Holiday weekend. Then...some moisture will sneak into
areas near the international border for a slight chance of
thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. The moisture is expected to
become more pronounced late in the week with an increase in shower
and thunderstorm activity.


Discussion...dry west-northwest flow aloft over the area this weekend as
August comes to a close. It was hotter in spots on Friday versus
forecast especially out in western Pima. Models suggesting a degree
or two warmer today thus have made some slight adjustments up in the
weekend highs.

Remaining warm to hot Labor Day and Tuesday with upper ridge parked
over the area. During these two days...moisture and afternoon
thunderstorm activity will be slowly pushing north across Sonora mx.

As the upper high slides east Wednesday and Thursday...southerly
flow will increase across the area...thus allowing moisture to
return to the area. Models are at odds on depth of this moisture
increase but should be enough to support slight chance of afternoon
and evening storms both days. A possible tropical storm near the
Mexican coast and close to southern tip of Baja California may Friday and Saturday
may bring an additional boost in moisture values from the south.
Went with near climatology probability of precipitation for these two days along with cooler
daytime temperatures...somewhere near normal for early September.


Aviation...valid through 31/12z.
Expect a few to scattered clouds with bases around 8-12k feet above ground level
through Sunday morning. The bulk of these clouds will be east of
ktus. Surface winds will be mainly less than 10 kts into early
Sunday morning. Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments.


Fire weather...dry conditions will prevail through Monday. There is
a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly near the international
border south to southeast of Tucson Tuesday. Thereafter...
thunderstorm chances will gradually increase by the end of the
upcoming week as moisture increases across the area. Expect light
terrain driven winds into early next week. Gusty outflows associated
with thunderstorms will then occur during the latter part of next


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none.



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