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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
120 PM MST Monday Jul 27 2015

Synopsis...the weather pattern is becoming more favorable for an
upswing in thunderstorm activity this week as deeper moisture
returns. Otherwise...temperatures will be at near normal levels
through the upcoming weekend.


Discussion...high cloudiness early this morning had thinned and
dissipated across most of the area. This has resulted in enough
surface heating to help trigger a few showers and thunderstorms in
the mountains so far today. Expect the areal coverage of
thunderstorms to be more today compared to the past 2 days...with
the best chance of rain remaining east and south of Tucson. Latest
models continued to support the idea of an increase in thunderstorm
activity this week as a ridge of high pressure aloft amplifies and
becomes centered near The Four Corners region. This will result in a
deep easterly to southeasterly steering flow with moistre working
back into the region. Daytime temperatures will remain near or
slightly above normal readings.


Aviation...valid through 29/00z.
Scattered to occasionally broken clouds 8-12k feet above ground level with isolated-scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain
mainly south and east of ktus including kdug/kols areas and perhaps
isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain in the White Mountains NE of ksad through about
28/03z. More widespread rain showers/thunderstorms and rain expected Tuesday farther north and
west including ktus. Brief MVFR conditions and vrb wind gusts to 35
kts possible in and around the stronger thunderstorms and rain. Outside of storm
influence...surface winds will be less than 12 kts with some higher
gusts from from the west and northwest this afternoon...especially
near ksad. Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments.


Fire weather...moisture is on the increase under the influence of
deeper southerly flow. The result will be an increase in showers and
thunderstorms beginning this afternoon...with convection mainly near
the international border and in the White Mountains. Tuesday through
Friday...more widespread convective activity will occur over all
southeastern Arizona zones. Strong outflows near storms could
produce wind gusts to 40 miles per hour. Otherwise...20-ft winds will generally
be terrain driven and less than 15 miles per hour with some afternoon gustiness
from the west or northwest due to daytime heating. Winds will
develop more of an easterly component beginning Thursday.


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none.



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