Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
240 PM MST Sat may 18 2013 


Synopsis...a low pressure system will move into the region tonight 
and Saturday. Expect gusty winds and somewhat cooler temperatures 
again today. High pressure over the western United States will then 
develop early next week and guide temperatures back to well above 
average. 


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Discussion...upper trough will pass through the area today bringing 
cooler daytime temperatures and a bit of a breeze. Cloud cover over 
the area has been thinning since last night and should be east into 
New Mexico by this afternoon. Gradual warmup will start of Sunday 
and continue into middle-week where Tucson will once again threaten 
triple digits Wednesday and Thursday. 


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Aviation...scattered to locally broken clouds above 15kft above ground level will push on 
east today with sky clear conditions likely by 19/00z. Surface wind terrain 
driven less than 10 kts through 18/16z then west-SW 10-20 kts with higher 
gusts again after 18/18z. Aviation discussion not updated for taf 
amendments. 


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Fire weather...a dry upper level trough will move across the state 
today and be east of the area on Sunday. While this system will be 
dry...temperatures will cool off this weekend with continued breezy 
to locally windy conditions in the afternoon. Dry conditions will 
continue into the middle of next week with above normal temperatures 
into Wednesday. 


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Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


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