Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1209 PM CDT sun Aug 30 2015

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period
as frontal boundary lifts north of the area/dissipates. Isolated
shower or storm possible near northwest Arkansas sites again today but prob too
low to include in forecast at this time.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 1035 am CDT sun Aug 30 2015/

Discussion...
a few showers were noted earlier within weakening frontal zone
stretching across southeast OK/northwest AR, and some additional development
remains possible through this afternoon. Forecast basically in
good shape, though have removed pops from the morning period.

Previous discussion... /issued 638 am CDT sun Aug 30 2015/

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Patchy light fog nay reduce visibilities to MVFR at some sites
through about 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period. Isolated convection will be possible near the
northwest Arkansas sites today...but the chances of any individual
site being impacted are too low to include in the taf's.

Previous discussion... /issued 405 am CDT sun Aug 30 2015/

Discussion...
isolated showers/thunderstorms currently east
of boundary..running from south central OK to
southwest MO. Low grade pops that area today.

Broad h500 ridge from the southern / Central
Plains to the northeastern states will be in
control for about the next week. This results
in long stretch of generally dry weather for
our area. Isolated showers or thunder may be
generated over the higher terrain southeast
OK and northwest Arkansas in daytime heat but
not enough for 20% pop.

All in all-dry with temperatures not far from
seasonal normals. Gw

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 89 71 93 72 / 10 0 0 0
fsm 91 72 93 71 / 20 30 10 10
mlc 92 72 93 71 / 10 20 0 10
bvo 87 65 93 69 / 10 0 0 0
fyv 86 68 88 66 / 20 30 10 10
byv 85 69 88 68 / 20 30 10 10
mko 87 69 90 69 / 10 20 10 0
Mio 86 69 92 69 / 20 20 0 0
f10 89 71 92 71 / 10 0 0 10
hhw 94 69 95 70 / 20 20 10 10

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...14
long term....12
aviation...14

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations