Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
913 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015
consistent consecutive runs of the hrrr validate leaving the
current high probability of precipitation as they are in the forecast. Interestingly... there
continues to be a fairly steep gradient of probability of precipitation along the
northern border of the forecast area and this is well represented
in the current radar data as dry air makes its way into the area from
the north. All other forecast elements appear to remain on track
as well... so will only update the zone forecast product to improve the wording at
Previous discussion... /issued 638 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015/
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Widespread light rain will continue across NE OK west/ a better
chance of thunderstorms nearer kmlc. VFR to periodic MVFR
categories are expected through late evening. Precipitation will expand
as it shifts southward late tonight through Tuesday morning with
lowering ceilings for southeast OK / western Arkansas. Conditions improve from
north to south during the day on Tuesday.
Previous discussion... /issued 307 PM CDT Monday Apr 27 2015/
a large rain shield is across central Oklahoma at this hour
as a middle-level low spins across extreme southwest Oklahoma.
The rain with some embedded thunderstorms will spread across
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this evening and into
tonight. The rain will taper on Tuesday as the middle-level low
moves east of the forecast area. Rainfall amounts will be around
an inch across southeast Oklahoma with lesser amounts to the north.
There could be a few locations across southeast Oklahoma that
could see upwards of three inches of rain with this system which
could lead localized flooding of low lying areas.
For the remainder of the week and into the weekend...dry
conditions are expected as high pressure at the surface and
aloft reigns supreme. A gradual warming trend will also
take place during this time-frame.
The next chance of showers and thunderstorms will be late in the
weekend and into early next weekend as the a cold front moves
through the region.