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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
545 am CDT Sat may 30 2015

Discussion...

The 12z taf discussion is included below.

&&

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
LIFR fog and ceilings exist ahead of a cold front...with MVFR ceilings and
improving visibilities behind it. Expect most sites to go to hi end MVFR
or VFR by midday or early afternoon...with some deterioration of
conditions tonight.

Lacy

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 403 am CDT Sat may 30 2015/

Discussion...
pattern shift away from the historically wet weather of the past
few weeks beginning to take shape and will give US all a chance to
dry out. Unseasonably cool weather today will transition to
weather more typical of early Summer next week.

In the meantime area of rain associated with a slow moving upper
level wave centered near lzk continues to gradually move out of
northwest Arkansas early this morning. At the same time...cold
front entering northeast Oklahoma will continue to usher in drier
low level airmass through much of the forecast area by the end of
the day. While isolated showers or a thunderstorm remains possible
with the frontal passage this morning...the better chance of rain
today outside of northwest Arkansas early on will be south of the Red
River where ongoing mesoscale convective system continues to move along stationary
boundary draped across North Texas. Some elevated storms still may
develop north of this boundary and impact parts of southeast OK
this morning.

With all this in mind will be able to cancel a large portion of
the Flash Flood Watch...leaving part of the area south of I-40 and
a few counties of northwest Arkansas. Will also trim back expiration time
to 18z with the arrival of drier air over the rest of the area.

Also...some dense fog has developed in areas south of the
approaching front...however with the arrival of the front
visibility should improve.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 72 54 75 56 / 10 10 10 10
fsm 76 58 76 59 / 30 10 10 10
mlc 73 56 75 55 / 30 10 10 10
bvo 71 50 74 51 / 10 10 10 10
fyv 70 52 71 51 / 20 10 10 10
byv 70 53 70 53 / 30 10 10 10
mko 72 55 74 56 / 20 10 10 10
Mio 70 53 72 53 / 20 10 10 10
f10 72 56 74 56 / 20 10 10 10
hhw 78 58 78 59 / 50 20 10 10

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM Saturday for okz049-okz053-okz073-
okz075-okz076.

Arkansas...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM Saturday for arz002-arz011-arz020-
arz029.

&&

$$

Aviation...30

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