Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
609 am CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Weak wave moving across NE Texas will result in VFR ceilings across
southeast OK and wc Arkansas. Low chances for rain...afternoon thunderstorms and rain will
accompany this feature...however coverage will remain too low for
a taf mention. Remaining elements to remain VFR through the taf
period as well.
Previous discussion... /issued 318 am CDT Wednesday Aug 20 2014/
weak upper vorticity maximum currently over North Texas will lift north-northeast today
into the region around developing upper high over the Gulf Coast states.
This should provide at least a limited chance for isolated showers/
thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this
afternoon. In addition...potential for increased cloud cover could
keep high temperatures a degree or two cooler than would occur
Main weather story will be the hot/humid conditions as the slow
warming trend continues through the weekend as upper high builds
into the arklatx region. Heat indices in the 100-105 degree range
are likely each afternoon Thursday through Saturday. Upper high
begins drifting north in middle Mississippi River vally into early
next week which may shave a couple of degrees off of highs...however
above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the
extended periods. Limited precipitation chances return by Tuesday
of next week as low level moisture begins to increase. Generally
stayed close to the warmer European model (ecmwf) guidance through the weekend
given recent temperature trends over the last few days.