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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
536 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015

concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Widespread and prolonged aviation impacts expected for this
forecast period. Currently low MVFR to IFR conditions prevail and
this is expected to persist through much of the day...with a trend
toward prevailing IFR conditions by late afternoon through


Previous discussion... /issued 251 am CST Friday Nov 27 2015/

much anticipated heavy rain event in progress across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas, with 2 to 3 inches having already
fallen across portions of northeast and also southeast Oklahoma in
the past 12 hours. Axis of heaviest rain will shift into far
southeast Oklahoma as the cold front, currently extending from
south central Oklahoma into the far northwest corner of Arkansas,
becomes quasi-stationary and the tropical moisture plume persists
in that part of the forecast area into Saturday. Even with the
southward shift, light to moderate rain should remain well north
of the front through most of the weekend. No changes will be made
to the existing Flash Flood Watch, with this expected scenario
already well accounted for.

Temperatures behind the front have fallen into the mid 30s across
much of the region north of Interstate 44, with a 20 to 25 degree
temperature drop in less than a half an hour observed following
the frontal passage. Other than the sharp initial drop, however,
temperatures are nearly steady across portions of northeast
Oklahoma that are several hours removed from frontal passage.
There appear to be no additional surges of cold advection behind
the front so most of the aforementioned areas are likely within a
couple degrees of their minimum temperatures over the next 48
hours or so. This has substantial implications for freezing rain
potential this far east. The most likely part of the forecast area
to see temperatures 32 degrees or lower, and consequently
accumulating freezing rain, will be the higher elevation portion
of far northwest Osage County. Even 31-32 degrees, though, is not
optimum temperature-wise for ice accumulation so substantial
impacts from ice, such as extended power outages, are still not
expected in the forecast area, but with northerly winds gusting to
20 mph, minor impacts could occur with even a small amount of
accumulation. A Freezing Rain Advisory will be issued for Osage
County this morning, with a tenth to maybe two-tenths of
accumulation possible from late this afternoon through early
Saturday morning. Rising temperatures on Saturday should lead to a
transition once again to rain that should last through the rest of
the precipitation event.

Light rain may linger into early next week, with the main upper
low likely to remain to the west through the weekend at least. Dry
weather will persist through the rest of the week after the upper
low finally moves east. Temperatures should be below normal.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 37 35 38 35 / 100 90 70 70
fsm 55 43 46 43 / 100 100 90 90
mlc 43 36 39 37 / 100 100 90 90
bvo 35 33 37 34 / 100 90 60 60
fyv 45 37 42 38 / 100 100 80 80
byv 47 37 40 37 / 100 100 80 80
mko 42 36 40 37 / 100 100 80 80
Mio 38 34 38 35 / 100 90 50 70
f10 39 34 38 35 / 100 100 80 80
hhw 60 40 43 41 / 100 100 100 90


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for okz049-053-

Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for okz056>058-060>067.

Freezing Rain Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 am CST
Saturday for okz054.

Arkansas...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for arz001-002-010-




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