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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
314 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015

Discussion...
a cold front currently located near a Jay to Okemah line will
sweep through the remainder of the forecast area by 12z this
morning. Temperatures will be noticeably colder today when compared
to the near record heat of yesterday. Temperatures will be mostly
a few degrees cooler on Friday as a surface high settles over the
middle-west in the wake of the departing cold front.

It continues to look like a wet weekend across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas as Pacific moisture surges into the Southern Plains
from the southwest. The precipitation will move into eastern Oklahoma
Friday night before overtaking the entire forecast area on Saturday.
The precipitation will end on Sunday as a middle-level shortwave in the
developing northwesterly flow aloft pushes a cold front through the
region. The precipitation type will predominately be rain through
Saturday evening before the potential of a wintry mix enters the
picture across northeastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Rain...
snow...sleet and even some freezing rain will all be possible late
Saturday night into Sunday. This forecast was made using a blend
of models that was trended slightly to the colder GFS solution. The
GFS is more aggressive in moving the cold front through the region Sunday
morning and hangs on the precipitation a little longer than the European model (ecmwf).
Either way...any accumulations of snow and ice will likely be minor given
the recent warm spell and the marginal temperatures during the event.

Monday morning looks like the coldest morning during this forecast period
as high pressure settles over the region behind the weekend cold front.
Kept the remainder of the forecast dry despite the passage of another
cold front mid-week.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 53 27 48 35 / 0 0 0 20
fsm 57 30 55 35 / 0 0 0 10
mlc 55 30 52 35 / 0 0 0 20
bvo 53 21 48 33 / 0 0 0 30
fyv 50 26 51 32 / 0 0 0 10
byv 49 27 47 31 / 0 0 0 10
mko 53 27 50 33 / 0 0 0 20
Mio 49 24 47 33 / 0 0 0 10
f10 53 29 49 35 / 0 0 0 20
hhw 59 32 54 35 / 0 0 0 20

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...18
long term....10

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