Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
908 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015
tonight is pretty much a clone of last night. The current
forecast is on track and will not be updated this evening.
Previous discussion... /issued 635 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015/
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR conditions expected for all sites during the forecast
period. Expect low level wind shear conditions to develop overnight...with
south surface winds increasing by mid-morning.
Previous discussion... /issued 316 PM CDT Monday may 4 2015/
Another warm and breezy day today across much of eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas...with high temperatures very near yesterdays
levels despite the increased diurnal cloud cover resulting from an
increase in low level moisture.
The much advertised active weather pattern arrives tomorrow and
will persist through next weekend. Scattered thunderstorms may
arrive as early as tomorrow morning across portions of southeast
Oklahoma as a modest low level jet develops across East Texas late
tonight. The timing for the more widespread thunderstorms remains
unchanged from the last few days...holding off until tomorrow night
and into Wednesday morning as the leading upper level trough
swings out of the southern rockies and into the central and
northern plains by Wednesday afternoon. The heavy rainfall axis
should affect a good portion of eastern Oklahoma and perhaps far
northwest Arkansas...with 1 to 2 inch rain totals /locally higher/
likely. The heaviest rainfall should occur over areas that
continue to be affected by drought...which is good news.
With southwesterly flow established across the region...subsequent
upticks in thunderstorm coverage should occur Thursday during the
day...late Thursday night and into Friday morning...and also
Friday night....as individual impulses in the mean flow move
through the Southern Plains area. Severe thunderstorm potential
through Friday night continues to look to be on the limited
side...due to weak wind fields.
The severe thunderstorm threat will increase some over mothers day
weekend...as the upper low currently off the coast of British
Columbia ejects into the Central Plains from the southwestern
United States. This will bring the jet stream over the
Oklahoma/Kansas region...resulting in an increase in deep layer
shear. Timing of when this occurs remains in question...with
earlier model runs suggesting Sunday might feature a better chance
of severe weather...but current runs trending toward Saturday.
Still plenty of time to Iron out those details...but the overall
pattern is definitely more favorable for severe storms over the
weekend than through the present work week.
A cold front will accompany the aforementioned upper low late
Sunday and into Monday...bringing cooler and drier weather back to
the region for the beginning of the next work week.