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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1105 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
For the 18z tafs... winter weather will continue to affect all
taf sites today... ending from the north this evening. IFR
ceilings and/or visibilities will prevail through this time
period. Conditions will improve to VFR this evening... along with
gusty northerly winds.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 1049 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015/

...

Discussion...
have updated the forecast to reflect upgrading Benton County from
Winter Weather Advisory to winter weather warning... as they are
included in the heavier band of precipitation that is currently
affecting the rest of northwest Arkansas. No other changes to the
forecast are necessary at this time.

Previous discussion... /issued 539 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015/

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Widespread IFR conditions expected through much of today with
rain transitioning to freezing rain...sleet and eventually snow.
Most likely locations for freezing rain impacts will be fsm/mlc.
Ceilings/visibilities will begin to improve from northwest to southeast later today
with VFR conditions in all areas after 06z.

Previous discussion... /issued 356 am CST Wednesday Mar 4 2015/

Discussion...
the leading edge of colder air has pushed through about the northern half
of the forecast area early this morning...with sub-freezing
temperatures just now reaching the Kansas/OK border. Expect the freezing
line to push to near the I-44 corridor by 12z...to mlc and just north of
fsm by 18z...and through all but far southeastern OK by 00z.

Well-defined upper low is currently spinning across the Baja California...with
an impressive fetch of Pacific moisture noted across the Southern Plains.
Area radars have shown a noticeable increase in precipitation over
the past 1-2 hours across northwestern Texas into southwestern/southern OK...and this will
continue today as the entrance region of powerful upper level jet sets
up across the region.

Forecast reasoning concerning precipitation types hasn't changed
much. A rain/freezing rain/sleet mix early this morning across NE OK
and northwest will eventually transition to sleet/snow later this morning
and eventually to all snow later in the day before tapering off this
evening. The highest snow/sleet totals are still expected across
parts of northwest Arkansas...with a few 4+" amounts possible across Carroll and
Madison counties. Forecast snow amounts will hinge on when the
changeover from sleet to snow occurs...and snow amounts may be less
if sleet ends up as the primary precipitation type. Regardless...a
significant amount of sleet will still result in impacts on roads.

Precipitation will likely remain mostly rain through the morning
across southeast OK into west-central Arkansas...with a transition to freezing
rain/sleet holding off until middle-to-late afternoon and eventually to
all snow after 00z. Significant ice accumulations will be possible
particularly across Leflore into parts of southern Latimer and Pushmataha
counties.

While any one precipitation type may not exceed warning criteria for
this event...then combination of freezing rain/sleet and snow and
expected travel impacts warrants the maintenance of the existing
Winter Storm Warning for northwest Arkansas into parts of southeast OK. Current icing
forecast for far southeastern OK is pushing warning criteria...so have opted
to upgrade Choctaw County to a Winter Storm Warning. Winter storm
warnings across southeast OK and possibly west-central Arkansas may need to be extended
beyond 06z...but will allow dayshift to take another look at this.

Thursday will be a cold day...but a much anticipated warming trend
will ensue late this week and through the weekend. Highs are
expected to rebound back into the 50s over the weekend and well into
the 60s by early next week.

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...Winter Storm Warning until midnight Thursday for okz049-okz053-
okz075-okz076.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight Thursday for okz054-
okz055-okz056-okz057-okz058-okz059-okz060-okz061-okz062-
okz063-okz064-okz065-okz066-okz067-okz068-okz069-okz070-
okz071-okz072.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight Thursday for okz073-
okz074.

Arkansas...Winter Storm Warning until midnight Thursday for arz001-arz002-
arz010-arz011.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight Thursday for arz019-arz020-
arz029.

&&

$$

Aviation...06

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