Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK 
1200 am CDT sun may 26 2013 


Aviation... 
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm. 
Scattered low ceilings have developed across parts of northeast 
Oklahoma per latest satellite image. Thus...will continue with 
MVFR ceilings spreading across eastern Oklahoma through the 
morning hours Sunday...then lifting back to VFR Sunday 
afternoon/evening. Southerly winds during the day Sunday are 
expected to increase 10 to 25kt across the region with chances for 
showers and thunderstorms. For now will just keep the vcsh/thunderstorms in the vicinity 
for mlc/fsm due to limited chances/coverage. 




&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 932 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013/ 


... 


Discussion... 
isolated convection continues to weaken with the loss of heating 
while becoming focused nearer the center of the weak disturbance 
across North Texas. 00z koun/kshv soundings sampled the deep moist 
axis that resides along the eastern periphery of the 
aforementioned disturbance...and given the lack of inhibition 
within this zone...isolated to scattered convection may sparkle 
through the overnight hours with highest chances across southeast OK. 
This is reflected with the current forecast. The update will 
increase dewpoints into tomorrow based on recent trends...and 
increase sky cover overnight into tomorrow. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
tul 70 83 69 85 / 20 20 20 10 
fsm 66 82 66 85 / 20 30 10 10 
mlc 68 83 67 84 / 20 20 10 10 
bvo 67 83 67 85 / 20 20 20 10 
fyv 63 80 64 83 / 20 30 20 10 
byv 62 80 62 82 / 20 30 20 10 
mko 67 82 66 86 / 20 30 10 10 
Mio 66 81 66 84 / 20 30 20 10 
f10 67 83 66 84 / 20 20 10 10 
hhw 69 82 67 84 / 30 30 10 10 


&& 


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Arkansas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Aviation...20