Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
547 am CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at
mlc/xna/fyv/fsm...and through most of the period at bvo/tul/rvs.
Scattered thunderstorms will be most likely to affect bvo/tul/rvs
after 08-09z...perhaps affecting the other terminals after 12z.
Light winds this morning will become gusty from the S after
15z...especially at bvo/tul/rvs.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 325 am CDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014/

Discussion...
a surface ridge across the MS valley will shift east today...allowing
breezy southerly winds to return to the area. A modest low-level moisture
return is expected this afternoon...with temperatures warming into
the upper 70s/lower 80s. Cold front across Kansas and a sharpening
dryline across the Texas Panhandle are expected to become active late
today...and some storms could approach parts of eastern OK late
Wednesday night as the cold front nears the region. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through about
middle-afternoon before the front exits the region. The severe weather
threat should remain rather low with this activity considering the
time of day that storms arrive.

Friday is expected to be breezy and warm...with S winds quickly
returning. Some elevated convection isn't completely out of the
question late Friday night into Saturday morning as 30-40 knots
low-level jet and improving low-level moisture overspread the area.

Significant severe weather remains likely for Sunday across much of
the Southern Plains. A strong upper low will eject into the Lee of The
Rockies by Sunday morning...with very broad diffluent flow
dominating the region. The implied low-level lift will aid in
generating convection by Sunday morning along and ahead of the
dryline across far western OK. Forecast instability and wind fields
remain highly supportive of organized severe weather by Sunday
afternoon as the dryline pushes farther east. All modes of severe
weather...including tornadoes...appear possible. Have bumped up probability of precipitation
for Sunday...and later forecasts will continue to fine tune this
developing situation.

Blocking upper pattern will keep the upper low from ejecting east too
quickly...and we'll eventually see a very broad upper cyclone
dominating the eastern two-thirds of the country by early/middle next week.
This will bring an extended period of below average temperatures.

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Aviation...22