Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
935 am CST sun Feb 1 2015
Forecast updated to remove probability of precipitation over much of the area. See
Strong pv anomaly in the northern stream of the westerlies is
diving southeast over the plains this morning. This system has
effectively shunted the warm conveyor from the southern stream
system out of our area to the south and east...ending the
measurable rainfall over east OK/northwest Arkansas. The concomitant cold front
and strong northwest winds are sweeping across the forecast area as I
type. Wind gusts at or above 40 miles per hour have already been observed
along and west of Highway 75 in NE OK...so the going Wind Advisory
covers this well. The main change in the morning update is to
remove all precipitation chances except in the far east for the remainder
of the day. Still could see some patchy drizzle for awhile
longer...but measurable precipitation chances are now too low to mention.
Previous discussion... /issued 500 am CST sun Feb 1 2015/
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
For the 12z tafs... IFR and LIFR ceilings will prevail at all
sites early this morning as a cold front approaches. After frontal
passage... ceilings will lift to MVFR and eventually VFR levels.
Strong and gusty northwest winds will prevail after frontal
Previous discussion... /issued 338 am CST sun Feb 1 2015/
the steadier rain is ending from west to east across the area
early this morning. A few areas of light rain or drizzle will
remain possible this morning...especially from northwest Arkansas
into southeast Oklahoma. A strong cold front will enter northeast
Oklahoma just before sunrise and will sweep across the area today.
Gusty northwest winds and steady or falling temperatures will be
seen in the wake of the front. Wind gusts near 40 miles an hour
will be possible across parts of northeast Oklahoma and a Wind
Advisory has been posted until 6 PM today for areas generally
along and northwest of a Vinita to Bristow line.
After a chilly Monday...a quick warmup will take place Tuesday
with most places climbing into the middle to upper 50s. Another cold
front will sweep across the area Wednesday and Wednesday evening.
Most models indicate a band of Post frontal precipitation
developing across the area and a wintry mix will be possible
Wednesday night into early Thursday. Some light snow accumulations
may occur...mainly across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
A warming trend will begin Friday and continue at least through
next weekend with temperatures running well above the seasonal
normals. Model discrepancies prohibit going warmer than the low to
middle 60s at this point in time for next weekend...but if the warmer
model solutions verify...some 70s will be possible.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days but
went a bit warmer than guidance for highs Tuesday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 47 16 37 26 / 10 0 0 0
fsm 51 22 40 24 / 10 0 0 0
mlc 50 18 39 24 / 10 0 0 0
bvo 45 15 36 21 / 10 10 0 0
fyv 46 16 36 21 / 10 10 0 0
byv 47 17 35 23 / 20 10 0 0
mko 48 17 37 24 / 10 0 0 0
Mio 46 15 34 23 / 10 10 0 0
f10 47 17 37 25 / 10 0 0 0
hhw 54 22 42 25 / 10 0 0 0
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM Sunday for okz054-okz055-okz056-okz057-