Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
941 PM CDT sun Apr 20 2014
upper level low moving across Texas/OK Panhandle region this evening.
Initial band of light rain pushing through eastern OK has had very
little thunder associated with it...at least north of the Red
River. More organized convection continues across far western OK
closer to center of low. Chance of measurable rainfall...albeit
light in most areas...still looks high and will continue to let
probability of precipitation stand as most short range guidance expands convection
eastward later tonight. Have reduced thunder probability for
the rest of the night however as instability remains modest at
best. Will also lower forecast mins slightly across northwest Arkansas
based on current readings. Update will be out shortly.
Previous discussion... /issued 628 PM CDT sun Apr 20 2014/
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Ceilings will lower to MVFR late tonight and will likely remain
MVFR for the rest of the forecast period. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms will be possible just about anywhere anytime but
have tried to limit the mention to the most likely time frames.
Previous discussion... /issued 258 PM CDT sun Apr 20 2014/
upper wave...currently moving into the Oklahoma Panhandle will
continue shifting east into the area tonight. Showers will begin
to increase in coverage this afternoon into the evening hours with
scattered thunderstorms developing as middle level lapse rates continue
to steepen in association with approaching wave. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will likely continue through much of the day
Monday before upper trough axis shifts east Monday evening.
Weak front will move into northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas
Monday night with dry air filtering into the area behind boundary
into Tuesday. Upper ridge will quickly build over the Southern
Plains by middle week. Warm/windy conditions will develop during the
day Wednesday as low level moisture quickly surges back north.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday as another cool front moves into the area before stalling
over southeast Oklahoma/west central Arkansas Thursday night.
Zonal flow aloft develops Friday into the weekend with the potential
for a series of upper level disturbances to traverse the area.
Atmosphere is expected to become unstable by this time as rich
Gulf moisture increases along/south of stalled front with strengthening
wind fields aloft. Could see multiple rounds of severe weather
during this time continuing into Sunday as potent upper low moves
out of the central rockies.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 60 76 53 77 / 80 60 10 0
fsm 60 76 57 78 / 80 60 40 0
mlc 59 75 57 78 / 80 60 30 0
bvo 59 76 48 78 / 80 60 10 0
fyv 54 72 52 72 / 70 70 40 0
byv 55 75 52 74 / 70 80 40 0
mko 60 75 54 76 / 80 60 20 0
Mio 59 74 51 76 / 70 60 20 0
f10 60 76 55 77 / 80 60 20 0
hhw 59 75 59 79 / 80 60 40 0