Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
642 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with kbvo most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the taf's, except at kfsm early this
Previous discussion... /issued 416 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015/
weak frontal boundary north central OK into far
southeast Kansas leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest Arkansas well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line North-
East OK southeast Kansas border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.
00z European model (ecmwf)..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
Arkansas. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous dry forecast at this time.
H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
h500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek. GFS brings energy from East Texas &
la to undercut the ridge..while European model (ecmwf) keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal