Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
557 PM CDT sun Apr 26 2015
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
For the 0z tafs... overcast skies will prevail at all sites...
generally remaining VFR. Thunderstorm activity will move into the
region from the west overnight... affecting eastern Oklahoma sites
by about 6z... possibly sooner at mlc. Convective activity is expected
to reach northwest Arkansas sites by around 14z... and fsm around
9z. Thunderstorms may create temporary MVFR conditions at any site.
Previous discussion... /issued 218 PM CDT sun Apr 26 2015/
shower and thunderstorm chances will ramp up tonight as
thunderstorms that develop across West Texas and western Oklahoma
move east into the area. Thunderstorms are currently developing
in the vicinity of the dry line across West Texas and further development
is expected across the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma near a
stationary boundary. The stationary boundary currently extends from
the Texas Panhandle eastward across North Texas just south of the
Red River. However...the boundary does poke northward into extreme
southeast Oklahoma. All this activity will be enhanced by a middle-level
low currently strengthening over New Mexico. Some of the storms that
move into eastern Oklahoma later this evening will have the potential
to be strong to severe with large hail and wind gusts around 60 miles per hour
possible. The threat for a tornado is not zero especially close to the
the stationary front this evening.
The chances of showers will be greatest Monday into Monday evening as
the aforementioned middle-level low moves into western Oklahoma from
New Mexico. Thunderstorms will become more isolated in nature as elevated
instabilities become less favorable. The showers will come to an end
on Tuesday as the middle-level low exits to the east. Rainfall amounts
during this time-frame will be in the 1 to 2 inch range west of a
Tulsa to Fort Smith line with lesser amounts to the northeast. A
few locations across southeast Oklahoma could see rainfall amounts around
the 3 inch mark.
Dry weather is expected from Wednesday into the weekend as high pressure
prevails at the surface and aloft for the majority of the period. The
next chance of showers and thunderstorms are just outside the scope of
this forecast as a cold front moves into the region. There will be a
slight warming trend during the extended portion of the forecast.