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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1245 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015

concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Band showers currently moving across taf area with middle level
ceilings. Thunder expected to develop by late afternoon or early
evening... mainly affecting northwest Arkansas taf sites kfyv kxna
krog during 00z to 06z period. VFR late tonight and Wednesday
morning all sites.


Previous discussion... /issued 1100 am CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015/

arc of showers northwest portion of forecast area
moving east and weakening. Expect showers/thunder
to redevelop later on in the afternoon especially
north. Dropped maximum temperatures most locations a degree or
two due to cloud. Gw

Previous discussion... /issued 634 am CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015/

concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
A few showers possible this morning across east OK but heavier precipitation
will likely remain west of area in the short term. Showers/thunderstorms
are expected to develop this afternoon/evening across NE OK with
scattered storms spreading into northwest Arkansas overnight. IFR conditions
will be likely in the stronger convection...especially at bvo.
Further south and east...precipitation will be more scattered in nature
with prob30 groups for the tul/rvs/fyv/xna/rog areas.

Previous discussion... /issued 404 am CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015/

a shortwave was progressing eastward into the Lee of the Rocky
Mountains early this morning per latest water vapor imagery. At
the same time a weak surface frontal boundary was positioned
across Kansas into Missouri. Between these two features...areas of
convection continued over western Oklahoma and the Oklahoma Texas
panhandles as well as north of the surface frontal boundary. Ahead
of the eastward moving cover was increasing
over eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early this morning.

The shortwave is expected to continue its eastward movement into
the Central Plains while the surface boundary sags southward some
toward the Oklahoma Kansas border today. This will allow for
convection to continue to spread eastward into eastern Oklahoma
during the morning hours and into northwest Arkansas this
afternoon. The greater precipitation chances for the County Warning Area looks to be
along and near the Oklahoma Kansas border...near the surface
boundary. Enough deep layer shear along with daytime instability
could create a limited potential for strong to severe storms with
strong winds and hail being the main threats. Also...with model
precipitable water amounts of 1.5 to near 2 inches...heavy
rainfall will also be a threat within any convection.

The majority of the precipitation looks to be mainly along and north of
Interstate 40...which will keep temperatures somewhat in check with highs
in the 80s/low 90s across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas this afternoon. Temperatures over southeast Oklahoma look to
climb into the middle to upper 90s with heat indices around 100
degrees possible.

Chance to likely thunderstorm chances will continue Tuesday night
through Wednesday as the shortwave and the associated vorticity maximum
moves through the Central Plains and pushes off to the east and
the surface boundary lifts back northward. Again...the greater
chances look to be mainly over northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Deep layer shear and instability over the County Warning Area will keep
a limited severe potential going into Wednesday and also Wednesday
night as the low level jet increases and warm air advection strengthens.
Precipitation chances finally start to taper off Thursday night with just
slight chance probability of precipitation over northwest Arkansas Friday before
northwesterly upper level flow shifts away from the region.

The flattened ridge of high pressure currently in place to the
southwest will begin to build back northeastward with rising
heights and a return of southwesterly low level flow across the
Southern Plains. This will bring back the hot and humid conditions
to the County Warning Area for the weekend into next week. Latest model solutions
continue to indicate triple digit temperatures spreading back into
the County Warning Area...especially over locations that receive little to no
rainfall over the next few days. Heat headlines will likely be
needed starting at some point this week and continuing into the
upcoming weekend.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 87 73 96 76 / 60 50 40 20
fsm 94 76 96 77 / 30 30 50 30
mlc 93 76 97 78 / 60 20 20 20
bvo 85 68 92 71 / 60 70 40 30
fyv 87 69 88 70 / 30 50 50 50
byv 89 69 88 70 / 40 50 70 50
mko 89 72 94 75 / 60 40 50 30
Mio 87 69 90 71 / 50 60 70 40
f10 89 74 96 76 / 60 30 20 20
hhw 95 77 99 78 / 10 0 10 10


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...21
long term....30

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