Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
510 PM CST Thursday Dec 12 2013
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
For the 0z tafs... light rain will move into the area this
evening. This could affect sites as early as 9z while
temperatures are below freezing. Have tempo groups containing
-fzra for the affected sites. Temperatures will rise overnight
with light rain continuing. Any threat of freezing rain should end by about
12 at all sites. Ceilings should gradually fall to MVFR levels
during the day Friday.
Previous discussion... /issued 427 PM CST Thursday Dec 12 2013/
high clouds were moving into the County Warning Area this afternoon with temperatures in
the 40s common across most locations. High clouds will continue to
spread across the region this evening and overnight as a wave
currently over the Desert Southwest approaches the Southern
Plains. Southerly winds through the night will transport low level
moisture into the region...increasing dewpoints overnight from
southwest to northeast ahead of the approaching wave. This will
allow for temperatures to fall during the evening hours and then
begin a slow rise overnight. Precipitation chances will become possible
after midnight tonight...with rain being the common precipitation type as
most locations across eastern Oklahoma should warm back
to/slightly above freezing. There could be a few hours of possible
light freezing drizzle/freezing rain mixing with the rain showers
over northwest Arkansas early Friday morning before temperatures
warm above freezing. Will send out a Special Weather Statement
indicating the potential for some light wintry precipitation...though not
expecting much of any impacts or accumulations.
Rain chances continue during the day Friday and into Friday night
as the wave over the southwest pushes into the Southern Plains.
Colder air associated with the wave will allow for a light wintry
mix of precipitation to be possible over parts of far northeast Oklahoma
and far northwest Arkansas early Saturday morning. Again just
minor accumulations will be possible. All precipitation should be exiting
the County Warning Area by Saturday afternoon as the wave shifts off to the east.
After colder temperatures Saturday...temperatures are expected to begin a
warming trend through most of next week as high pressure sets up
over the region. Southerly winds increase by week and become gusty
in the 20 to near 30 miles per hour range. This will help temperatures warm above
seasonal average with highs in the 50s possible.
In the far extended forecast...model solutions are indicating a
strong cold front possibly moving into the region late next week
with much colder air and the potential of wintry weather. Will
continue to monitor as data comes in.