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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
344 PM CDT Monday may 25 2015

Discussion...
large convective complex ongoing across the Southern Plains has
developed ahead of compact middle level wave and is interacting with
a broad region of moderate to strong instability. As strong wind
fields spread downstream ahead of the wave the storm complex will
remain organized and maintain the rapid east-NE development through
the evening hours. Rapid onset flash flooding and damaging wind
gusts are the primary severe weather hazards. Additionally...a
transient tornadic risk will persist with potential for both
mesovorticies along linear segments and also with sustained
updrafts augmented with enhanced low level shear downstream of
strong mesoscale convective vortex center.

Precipitation will diminish in coverage late this evening with scattered
convection possibly continuing in the wake of the larger system
and a more sustained dry period during the day on Tuesday. Various
data have been consistent on again developing an area of more
widespread convection Tuesday night into Wednesday across central
and possibly into eastern OK. Forcing aloft is rather nebulous
during this period so uncertainty persists however any convection
that does develop would likely be slow moving and thus a heavy
rain concern.

Wednesday through Friday is expected to remain a lesser coverage
precipitation period. By next weekend the pattern returns to troughing
through the plains along with a slow moving surface boundary through
the area. This will result in an uptick in precipitation coverage and
locally heavy rainfall will again become a concern.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 61 81 65 82 / 70 10 50 40
fsm 64 81 66 85 / 100 20 40 40
mlc 62 80 67 83 / 80 20 60 40
bvo 59 80 62 83 / 50 10 40 40
fyv 61 78 62 80 / 100 20 30 30
byv 61 79 63 80 / 100 30 30 30
mko 61 80 65 82 / 90 20 50 50
Mio 61 79 62 82 / 70 20 50 30
f10 60 80 65 82 / 80 20 60 50
hhw 64 82 68 83 / 80 20 30 30

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until noon Tuesday for okz049-okz053-okz054-
okz055-okz056-okz057-okz058-okz059-okz060-okz061-okz062-
okz063-okz064-okz065-okz066-okz067-okz068-okz069-okz070-
okz071-okz072-okz073-okz074-okz075-okz076.

Arkansas...Flash Flood Watch until noon Tuesday for arz001-arz002-arz010-
arz011-arz019-arz020-arz029.

&&

$$

Long term....07

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