Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
457 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
For the 12z tafs... VFR conditions with increasing high clouds
will prevail at all sites throughout the 24 hour forecast period.
There will be a very slight chance of rainfall beginning before
12z Saturday at northeast Oklahoma sites. However... the chance is
too slight to mention in the tafs.
Previous discussion... /issued 347 am CST Friday Jan 30 2015/
high cloudiness will be on the increase today ahead of the storm
system that will affect US over the weekend but otherwise it will
not be too bad of a day for late January. The cloudiness will
thicken and lower some overnight which will help keep temperatures
milder than this morning. Some light rain may begin to affect the
northwest part of the forecast area by late tonight.
The rain will have a tough time pushing east during the day
Saturday so the highest probability of precipitation will remain across the northwest part
of the forecast area. By Saturday night...rain will become
widespread area wide as the upper low to our west opens up and
moves east towards the area. Temperatures throughout this time
period will remain well above freezing.
Most of the rain will be ending early Sunday but a few areas of
light rain may linger into early afternoon. A cold front will
sweep across the area during the day but the coldest air at the
lower levels will not arrive until later in the day. Thus it
appears that rain will continue to be the predominant
precipitation type. A few wet mushy snow flakes may be seen across
the highest elevations of northwest Arkansas Sunday afternoon if
any precipitation remains by that time but near surface
temperatures at the lower elevations where most people live will
remain at or above 40 until the threat of precipitation has ended.
After a chilly day Monday...a quick but brief warmup will take
place Tuesday. Another frontal passage Wednesday will knock
temperatures back down for Thursday. At this point will keep the
forecast dry during this time frame but this may need to be
revisited later. A warming trend then looks to develop just beyond
the range of this forecast heading into next weekend.
Went warmer than guidance for low temperatures tonight due to
thickening cloud cover but stayed close to most other guidance
values the next couple days.