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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
643 am CDT sun Apr 26 2015

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
MVFR ceilings this morning should be able to lift back to VFR this
afternoon ahead of thunderstorm chances moving into the region this
evening and overnight. Greater precipitation chances look to be over much
of eastern Oklahoma after 00z and with lesser chances after 03z
over northwest Arkansas. Periods of MVFR conditions and heavy rain
will be possible within any thunderstorm activity. Breezy
northeast to easterly winds should be common through the period.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 233 am CDT sun Apr 26 2015/

Discussion...

Back door front is sagging south across the forecast area this
morning...becoming near stationary down over the Red River valley
by this afternoon. Looking aloft...a vigorous vorticity maximum is digging
down into western Arizona at this time...aided by an upper jet maximum in the
110-120kt range diving down its back side. Eventually as this
upper jet energy rounds the base of the parent trough...a broad
middle level cyclone will evolve over the Southern Plains early next
week. As the nose of the upper jet ejects into the Southern Plains
late today...increasing low-middle level warm advection atop the back
door front will result in widespread convection across
western/central OK/TX...with this activity eventually spreading
into eastern Oklahoma tonight. Elevated storms with the potential
for severe hail will be the main threat. Convective chances
decrease going into Monday as we get deeper into the cool air on
the north side of the southward sagging front...but rain chances
will continue through Tuesday as the upper low moves across. The best
potential for heavy rain and possible flooding will be west of our
area today...but this issue will need monitoring as the rains fall
across our area through Tuesday.

Ridging aloft will maintain tranquil weather for the middle to
latter part of the week...with gradually warming temperatures.
Overall...fairly quiet for what is the most climatologically
active period for severe weather in this part of the world.

Lacy

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 73 52 62 47 / 10 80 70 50
fsm 76 53 63 49 / 10 50 50 70
mlc 82 55 61 48 / 10 80 70 70
bvo 69 51 61 47 / 10 50 50 40
fyv 71 49 60 45 / 10 40 30 50
byv 65 47 61 46 / 10 20 20 30
mko 78 53 61 48 / 10 80 70 60
Mio 67 49 63 46 / 10 20 30 30
f10 77 53 59 48 / 10 80 70 70
hhw 83 56 65 50 / 10 70 70 80

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Aviation...20

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