Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
945 PM CST Thursday Dec 18 2014
Precipitation chances have been updated through tomorrow night. See
After perusing the new 00z data...which shows a consistent trend
of keeping the majority of the rain on Friday to the south of the
Red River...the forecast has been modified through Friday evening. 50
percent chances were maintained down near the Red River...but
the gradient was made much tighter north of there...lowering
chances over the majority of the forecast area...and confining
them to southeast OK and west central Arkansas. It also appears that rain chances
will be done by 00z Saturday...so the slight chances were removed
for Friday night.
Previous discussion... /issued 653 PM CST Thursday Dec 18 2014/
Some slight tweaks to low temperatures were made tonight. See discussion
A low cloud blanket will persist through the overnight and into
Friday across the region. Dewpoints have held steady or even
slowly risen over the last several hours...especially over
northwest Arkansas. It does not appear that advection of drier air
from the north will be enough to really lower dewpoints...thus
current dewpoints may be the bottom limit on temperatures tonight in most
areas. Using input from the latest hrrr...overnight lows were
tweaked upward just about everywhere...with the largest change
over in northwest Arkansas.
The latest data also indicates that the bulk of the rain from the
approaching wave currently over the southwest Continental U.S. Will fall
south of the Red River. If this trend continues in the 00z
data...probability of precipitation may need to be lowered for Friday morning.
Previous discussion... /issued 533 PM CST Thursday Dec 18 2014/
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
IFR/MVFR ceilings this evening are expected to fall back into the
LIFR to IFR categories overnight tonight and remain over eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the morning hours Friday.
Areas of IFR to MVFR visibilities will also be possible across
the region overnight into Friday morning. Conditions look to
improve some Friday afternoon with ceilings possibly lifting back
to MVFR with VFR visibilities.
Previous discussion... /issued 311 PM CST Thursday Dec 18 2014/
low clouds/low level moisture locked in across all of the region
this afternoon. Upper trough axis currently sliding through the
mountain west region will approach the south central United States
Friday. Highest quantitative precipitation forecast signals remain south and east of the area...so
will continue with the ongoing theme of keeping highest probability of precipitation
across southeast OK and northwest Arkansas through tomorrow evening. A little faster
of the system per latest guidance indicates a quicker end to
precipitation on Friday evening...so it does not look like a mention of
mixed precipitation will be required across far NE OK/northwest Arkansas as the system
departs. Next quick moving trough approaches Sunday..and will
offer at best limited chances for rain to close out the weekend.
A stronger trough in northwest flow aloft and associated frontal boundary
poised to increase rain chances some for early next week. At this
time...dry weather and temperatures near climatological averages
are expected for the xmas Holiday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 38 44 34 50 / 10 10 10 10
fsm 40 46 36 49 / 10 20 10 10
mlc 39 46 37 51 / 10 20 10 10
bvo 35 42 32 49 / 10 10 10 10
fyv 38 43 34 46 / 10 10 10 10
byv 37 41 34 45 / 10 10 10 10
mko 39 44 35 50 / 10 10 10 10
Mio 37 42 32 48 / 10 10 10 0
f10 39 44 36 51 / 10 10 10 10
hhw 43 48 39 52 / 20 50 10 10