Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
852 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014
the first round of storms appears to have ended for our area this
evening. Have canceled what was left of the Tornado Watch. Have
also raised overnight minimum temperatures a bit across the forecast
area as southerly winds continue strong warm air advection...
especially across northeast Oklahoma. The next round of convection
is still expected to begin overnight... so have left probability of precipitation as they
were. Updated products have been sent out.
Previous discussion... /issued 653 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014/
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Shower/thunderstorm chances will begin to increase across
northeast Oklahoma into Thursday morning and especially
Thursday afternoon northwest of a mlc/fyv line. Additional
predominate/tempo groups will likely be needed as timing
of strong/severe convective line becomes more certain.
Previous discussion... /issued 405 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014/
scattered showers and thunderstorms near the Kansas/Oklahoma
border may continue into the evening...but the main action is
likely shifting north of the state line for now. Additional shower
and thunderstorm development is expected later tonight into
Thursday morning and this activity will pose a limited severe
The greatest severe weather potential will be Thursday afternoon
and early evening as a cold front sweeps across the area. All
modes of severe weather will be possible initially...with a trend
towards mainly damaging winds as the storms become linear.
Once the storms clear the area Thursday evening...an extended
period of dry weather is likely to return. Much cooler
temperatures Friday into Saturday will give way to a warming trend
Sunday into next week with well above normal temperatures by the
middle of next week.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.