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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
533 am CDT Friday Jul 25 2014

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Patchy light fog and low cloudiness yielding periodic MVFR
conditions across far southeast OK / western Arkansas this morning. These
conditions may continue through middle morning...with a trend toward
VFR for all sites which is expected to persist through Friday
night.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 256 am CDT Friday Jul 25 2014/

Discussion...

Heat and humidity impacts continue to increase today...worsening
over the weekend...before another much anticipated cooldown
affects Oklahoma and Arkansas. For today...temperatures should be
a few degrees higher than yesterdays values across the entire
area...with similar dew points. Heat indices will be very near 105
degrees across much of northeast Oklahoma along and west of
Highway 75. Confidence is not high enough in what will happen
today to warrant converting the going excessive heat watch to a
warning at this point...but knowing that it will be close and well
Worth enhanced public awareness...will issue a heat advisory west
of a line from Nowata to Okmulgee for this afternoon. The
excessive heat watch will continue for Tulsa...Osage...and Pawnee
counties from this evening through Sunday afternoon. Additional
heat advisories and possibly...warnings will be necessary over the
weekend...including in counties that are not covered by today/S
advisory....as conditions worsen.

Approaching cold front should move into portions of northeast
Oklahoma sometime Sunday afternoon/evening. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible along the front late afternoon and into the
evening Sunday...and also near the Red River Monday afternoon.
Given the excessive heat ahead of the front...any storms that
develop would be capable of damaging winds.

Temperatures behind the front on Monday will be a few degrees
below normal in most spots...with even cooler temperatures
probable for the rest of next week. An axis of heavy rain and
thunderstorms will likely occur somewhere near to south of
Interstate 40 during the Wednesday to Thursday time frame...which
could keep parts of the area in the 70s for highs on
Wednesday...depending on where the rain eventually sets up. Have
gone fairly conservative on the cool temperatures for Wednesday
due to this uncertainty.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 97 77 100 79 / 0 0 0 10
fsm 93 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
mlc 93 73 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
bvo 98 72 101 74 / 0 0 0 10
fyv 89 69 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
byv 90 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 10
mko 94 72 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
Mio 94 74 99 74 / 0 0 10 10
f10 95 73 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
hhw 93 73 97 74 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...heat advisory from 1 PM Friday to 8 PM Friday for okz054-okz055-
okz056-okz059-okz060-okz061-okz064-okz065-okz066-okz067.

Excessive heat watch from 8 PM Friday to 8 PM Sunday for okz054-
okz059-okz060.

Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Aviation...07

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