Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
648 am CDT sun may 19 2013
Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
VFR with scattered to broken cloud 3 to 5 thousand feet through
middle/late afternoon. Violent thunder developing vicinity
kbvo/ktul/krvs 23z-01z continuing several hours afterward.
Thunder reaching northwest Arkansas sites kxna/kfyv in
04z-07z timeframe.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 354 am CDT sun may 19 2013/
Discussion...
well-advertised period of significant severe weather begins later
today as a 120 knots jet analyzed over northern California/southern or at 00z
translates sewrd across the southern rockies into the Southern Plains.
Attendant negatively tilted trough rotates across the region later
today. Latest analyses indicate very steep middle level lapse rates
and rich low level moisture already in place. Dry line once again
expected to sharpen this afternoon to our west with thunderstorms
initiating on it late this afternoon. Latest model data suggests
it will mix further east than yesterday...possibly near the I-35
corridor. Current thought is that storms will begin to affect northwestern
portions of eastern OK after 5 PM as cap keeps surface-based storms at Bay
until rather late. Very unstable air mass ahead of the dry line
over eastern OK with cape on the order of 3-4k j/kg and strong deep
layer shear should ensure rapid severe thunderstorm development.
Supercells with all modes of severe weather including very large
hail larger than baseballs as well as significant tornadoes will
be possible as low level shear/helicity increases this evening
across eastern OK. All models hint that cap will limit convection
through tonight across southern portion of the region. Best coverage of
storms tonight will be across northestern OK and far northwestern Arkansas.
Setup will be quite similar on Monday with dry line initiating
storms during the late afternoon. Remnant outflow boundary from
tonight's storms will also be a factor for storm redevelopment
later in the day where ever it settles. Very unstable conditions
with strong deep layer and low level shear will again support
supercell storm structures with all modes of severe weather
possible. A period of very heavy rainfall will also likely occur
Monday night with some flooding becoming possible.
Models suggest the middle level trough will translate across the Southern
Plains on Tuesday with its attendant cold front finally progressing
ewrd. High chances for thunderstorms continues Tuesday...especially
south and east with severe potential continuing.
Another trough develops into the western Continental U.S. Middle week resulting in
zonal flow behind the first system to become more southwesterly
again. Heights build slowly over the plains and Lee surface trough
strengthens allowing moist and unstable air to return back to the
region by Thursday. Low probability of precipitation and near climatology temperatures were forecast
with this expected pattern Thu-Sat.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 89 69 84 67 / 30 70 50 80
fsm 91 69 87 69 / 10 40 30 70
mlc 88 72 85 70 / 20 20 20 70
bvo 88 69 83 64 / 40 80 60 80
fyv 86 67 83 68 / 10 60 30 80
byv 87 66 82 67 / 10 70 30 80
mko 88 68 85 68 / 20 50 30 80
Mio 88 69 83 66 / 50 80 50 80
f10 87 69 85 69 / 20 50 40 70
hhw 88 70 86 71 / 10 20 20 60
&&
Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&
$$
Short term...07
long term....07
aviation...21
