Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1149 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Most convection has died down across northwest Arkansas and what remains
should stay east of forecast points in the very near term.
Widespread low clouds development possible overnight with MVFR
ceilings prevailing...then improving to VFR by afternoon. Isolated
afternoon storms possible but coverage should be limited and have
kept out of the forecast. More organized and widespread storms
likely to arrive just beyond 06z Tuesday with approaching front.
Previous discussion... /issued 941 PM CDT sun Jul 5 2015/
isolated convection continues in proximity to an aggressive
outflow boundary and on the periphery of the warmer middle level
temperatures. Complete boundary layer stabilization may take awhile but
overall coverage of thunderstorms is expected to continue to
slowly diminish. The aggressive outflow has also cooled temperatures
across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas...with warmer
temperatures prevailing west of the boundary. Sustained southerly winds
and current dewpoints will make for warm overnight temperatures. Updated
forecast will make slight adjustments to precipitation chances and
outflow impacted temperatures.