Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
500 am CST Sat Dec 20 2014
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions again this morning...with only
tul/revise seeing ceiling heights in the VFR category at 11z and even at
these terminals...MVFR ceilings expected by 12z or soon thereafter.
Conditions should improve a bit through the day...with potential
for low clouds to even scatter out in NE OK middle to late afternoon.
Conditions likely to diminish again overnight and into Sunday
Previous discussion... /issued 311 am CST Sat Dec 20 2014/
widespread low clouds along with areas of fog continue across the
entire forecast area early this morning. Observation sites are
showing a few spots with visibilities around 1/4 mile...but will hold off
on any advisories at this time. Have noted some breaks in the clouds
across nctrl OK over the past few hours...and while some breaks will
be possible today...expect mostly cloudy/cloudy conditions to
Yet another cloudy day expected on Sunday...with low-level moisture
remaining abundant ahead of an approaching upper wave. May see some
areas of light rain or drizzle develop late Sunday into Sunday night
as isentropic lift increases...although the better chances of rain
(especially in our eastern sections) are expected Monday into
Tuesday as a surface boundary moves through.
The progressive longwave trough will exit the area quickly Tuesday
night...with dry and seasonally cool weather for Wednesday.
Middle-level heights will quickly rise ahead of the next upper
system...with southerly surface flow resulting in a rather mild Christmas
day. Expect afternoon temperatures mainly in the 50s...with some 60s
possible across southeast OK.
Still seeing some timing/strength differences with the next system
scheduled to arrive Christmas night. 00z European model (ecmwf) keeps any significant
winter precipitation well to our north...but does bring a much
colder airmass through the Southern Plains by next Friday and into the