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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
640 am CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Northestern OK and northwestern Arkansas sites will be impacted by thunderstorms and rain through at
least middle morning. MVFR ceilings with IFR visibilities likely in this
activity. Redevelopment possible by late this afternoon/early
evening. Uncertain where boundaries will end up from this
morning's thunderstorm complex but whatever develops should be
less organized than ongoing activity...dissipating by late
evening.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 357 am CDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014/

Discussion...
persistent broad fetch of low level warm advection has focused a
band of showers and thunderstorms along the OK/Kansas border
overnight. As of yet the convection has not developed
southward...however the trailing portion of the middle level
shortwave trough is just now approaching the region and various
short term data continue to suggest a southward push of the
convection. Also the convection has developed well west into
southwest Kansas...and with the mean flow allowing for training of
cells within a zone of precipitable water values near 2 inches
support a continued risk of excessive rain for those counties
nearest the ongoing convection. A Flash Flood Watch has been
posted to account for this trend...with the convection expected to
develop southward and weaken later this morning or early afternoon.

The remnant outflow and/or synoptic front will stall across the
region and begin to lift northward tonight into Wednesday. This
boundary will again focus precipitation chances however much less
dynamical forcing will be place suggesting much lower precipitation
coverage. Thereafter temperatures will warm well above normal through the
end of the work week.

Generally good agreement on the next front arriving Friday with
increasing precipitation chances and cooler temperatures through the
weekend. This forecast will trend precipitation chances higher...and
further increases are likely once the timing becomes more defined.
After a cooler weekend...warmer temperatures return for early next week
while the pattern aloft transitions toward a more active period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 90 74 94 76 / 70 30 10 0
fsm 90 73 94 74 / 30 20 10 0
mlc 92 74 93 75 / 30 0 10 0
bvo 89 67 94 71 / 80 50 10 0
fyv 85 68 90 70 / 60 20 10 0
byv 85 68 90 70 / 90 20 10 0
mko 89 71 93 73 / 60 20 10 0
Mio 86 70 92 73 / 80 40 10 0
f10 91 72 93 74 / 40 10 10 0
hhw 94 73 94 73 / 20 10 10 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM Tuesday for okz054-okz055-okz056-
okz057-okz058.

Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Long term....07
aviation...69

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