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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
314 am CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

Discussion...

Middle level ridge remains firmly in control over the Central Plains
today. The main challenge the past several days has been the high
temperature forecast. The latest data suggests very little change in the
850mb thermal field across our area today compared to
yesterday...with the thermal ridge still lying to our north and
west over Kansas. The main change today appears to be the surface
wind direction. A more southwesterly direction is forecast...which would
suggest warmer temperatures in general. Nonetheless...guidance has
trended lower...and dewpoints will remain high...thus highs have
been lowered as well. This adjustment also necessitates a slight
adjustment to the heat advisory for today.

The east-west oriented 850mb thermal ridge settles south down into
Oklahoma on Wednesday...ahead of the tail end of a cool front.
Highs across northeast Oklahoma ahead of the front may get close
to the century mark. The latest data suggests storms will form
along the front near the Kansas/MO borders and move southwest into
our area as the flow aloft becomes more nerly on the eastern
fringes of the middle level ridge. The best coverage still appears to
be far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. A small chance of
storms will continue on Thursday down in the south and east as the
front moves south.

The heat will return for Friday on into the weekend as the middle
level ridge reestablishes itself over the forecast area. A weak
boundary may get close enough to the Kansas/MO borders to warrant a
slight chance of storms Sat night into Sunday. A stronger cold
front will sweep through Sunday night into Monday with a chance of
thunderstorms. This front will usher in below average temperatures
and dry weather for early next week.

Lacy

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 97 76 98 73 / 0 10 30 10
fsm 94 73 96 71 / 0 10 50 30
mlc 93 73 95 71 / 0 10 20 20
bvo 97 71 98 68 / 0 10 30 10
fyv 92 70 91 66 / 0 10 50 30
byv 91 70 91 65 / 0 10 50 20
mko 95 73 96 71 / 0 10 30 20
Mio 95 75 95 69 / 0 10 50 10
f10 94 74 96 72 / 0 10 20 20
hhw 93 73 95 72 / 0 0 10 20

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...excessive heat warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 8 PM Wednesday for
okz060.

Heat advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 8 PM Tuesday for okz054-
okz055-okz056-okz057-okz058-okz059-okz061-okz062-okz064-
okz065-okz066-okz067.

Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Long term....30

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