Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
908 PM CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014
large high pressure system over the central Continental U.S. And centered
over the northern plains will continue to build into the Southern Plains
tonight. Surface wind will continue to decrease overnight becoming
light and variable most areas by sunrise. Intermittent middle/high
clouds will likely pass across far northestern OK and far northwestern Arkansas at
times tonight but not expecting enough cloud to affect
temperatures much. Overall...ongoing forecast is tracking very
well and see no reason for evening updates at this time.
Previous discussion... /issued 544 PM CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014/
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
VFR through the entire period. Transient middle cloud.
Northwest wind becoming light / variable overnight turning
Previous discussion... /issued 253 PM CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014/
Todays cold front has raced through the area...and is currently
sitting well south of the Red River in central and East Texas.
Gusty northwest winds...sometimes in excess of 30 miles per hour gusts...will
continue for another couple of hours before lessening with sunset.
Afternoon cloudiness nearest the upper level vorticity maximum in far
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas should begin to
dissipate as well with the loss of daytime heating. Surface high
pressure will continue to dive southward in the wake of the
front...remaining across the area into late tomorrow. This will
keep temperatures well below normal for Thanksgiving day...but
with lighter winds...it may not feel as cool as today to some. The
high will push eastward tomorrow night...to be replaced by
returning southerly winds and warmer air by Friday as the upper
level pattern begins to flatten from its northwesterly flow state
of late. Highs Friday are likely to be 15 degrees or so warmer
than those on Thursday. Even warmer conditions are on deck for
Saturday...with winds strengthening and gaining a slight westerly
component. This should also contribute to some elevated fire
danger given the persistently low dew points and strengthening
winds. Near red flag conditions not out of the question for some
areas Friday and Saturday...although current relative humidity
forecast keeps conditions just above criteria.
The next cold front will make its approach sometime in the Sunday
to Sunday night time frame. The latest data generally favor a
later arrival than their predecessors. This will allow for some
spots...likely south of Interstate 40...to reach the middle 70s or so
Sunday afternoon. Generally becoming more confident that there
will be some light rain potential developing near the front for
Sunday night and Monday...affecting mainly areas southeast of
Interstate 44. With temperatures on the northern edge of the
precipitation shield likely to be near to just below
freezing...some freezing rain potential also exists...mainly for
far northeast Oklahoma. Difficult to say how much impact this
might have given the very warm temperatures in the preceding
days and also the light amounts expected. Needless to
say...currently not expecting a big event.
Additional precipitation will be possible toward the middle of the
week as the upper level pattern remains fairly zonal...allowing
disturbances to move across the area. The model solutions have
been anything but stable for this time frame...so felt slight
chance probability of precipitation would suffice for now.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 26 49 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
fsm 28 49 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
mlc 29 53 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
bvo 21 47 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
fyv 22 46 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
byv 24 44 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
mko 27 49 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
Mio 23 45 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
f10 28 50 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
hhw 31 55 34 64 / 0 0 0 0