Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1148 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 9 2014

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Showers and thunderstorms across Kansas continue to drop
southeast late this evening. This activity should begin
to impact the kbvo/ktul and krvs taf sites around 09-11z
and the remainder of the taf sites after 14z. Brief MVFR
ceilings/visibilities will be possible in the storms.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 952 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 9 2014/

Discussion...
diffuse frontal zone extending from arklatex northwest into SW
Kansas this evening is expected to gradually lift north overnight.
00z NAM shows boundary at 8590mb from about fsm-ict by 12z
Thursday. Clusters of storms continue to organize across Nebraska
and northern Kansas this evening and should continue growing
upscale as low level warm advection strengthens. Good chance that
an organized complex of storms will develop there and move southeast
overnight likely reaching parts of NE Oklahoma before 12z.
Existing forecast pop configuration basically good...but have
raised to likely in areas northwest of Tulsa after 09z as hrrr has
remained very consistent in bringing complex to these areas
09-12z. Also bumped probability of precipitation up some for 12-18z Thursday north of
I-40. Severe threat will be dependent on how organized cold pool
can become...at this time it still looks limited. Updated products
will be out shortly.

Previous discussion... /issued 628 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 9 2014/

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
VFR conditions expected this evening and through most of
the night. Thunderstorms should develop across Kansas tonight
eventually impacting all taf sites around 10-12z. Brief
MVFR ceilings/visibilities possible in and near storms.

Previous discussion... /issued 341 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 9 2014/

Discussion...
weakening frontal zone remains along the Red River and will begin
its northeastward movement tonight through Thursday. The most
likely scenario for overnight storms is an expanding complex
to develop across the High Plains...and track southeastward into
the area. Highest precipitation chances will be focused across northern
and eastern portions of the forecast area accordingly.

The return to hot and humid conditions will begin on Friday with
temperatures peaking Saturday into Sunday. A few storms may
develop in the higher terrain each day however chances will remain
very low.

An initial wind shift being an initial frontal boundary and/or
convective outflow will make a push into northeast Oklahoma on
Sunday. This raises uncertainties on temperatures in this zone...while hot
temperatures prevail further south across much of the forecast area. This
boundary will slowly work southward Sunday night through
Monday...before a stronger surge of cooler and drier air arrives
for Tuesday through middle next week. The boundary will also mark a
zone of increased precipitation chances. The temperatures for middle
to late next week continue to be shown abnormally cool for this
time of the year...and should this verify it will be a marked
change from the upcoming weekend temperatures.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 69 91 75 97 / 40 50 0 0
fsm 70 91 73 94 / 10 40 0 0
mlc 73 92 74 94 / 20 10 0 0
bvo 65 87 72 97 / 50 50 0 0
fyv 63 87 70 89 / 10 40 10 10
byv 63 86 69 89 / 10 30 10 10
mko 69 91 73 94 / 20 40 0 0
Mio 65 88 71 92 / 20 50 10 0
f10 71 91 73 94 / 20 30 0 0
hhw 72 94 73 95 / 20 10 0 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...99
long term....99
aviation...18

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations