Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1235 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015

concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Upper low moving east-southeast. Middle-high cloud over taf sites
diminishing from northwest to southeast and becoming sky clear.

All sites VFR through the period.


Previous discussion... /issued 1043 am CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015/

precipitation fading and mainly confined to areas near & south
of I-40 at this time. Probability of precipitation adjusted accordingly. Sun by
late afternoon from about I-44 on northwest. Gw

Previous discussion... /issued 649 am CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015/


The 12z taf discussion is included below.

concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR conditions will prevail with a few possible exceptions. A band
of rain is ongoing across east OK and west central Arkansas at this time. The taf sites
affected by this band...krvs and kfsm...are either experiencing
MVFR conditions or have the potential to see them over the next
few hours. The band of rain will sink south toward
kmlc...meanwhile a scattered deck of low stratus has been observed at
the site. An IFR tempo group has been inserted to cover a brief
IFR ceiling possibility. VFR conditions will prevail at all sites by
18z...and will continue through the remainder of the forecast period.
There is an outside chance of light fog at some of the sites
toward 12z. Will let future shifts investigate this possibility


Previous discussion... /issued 356 am CDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015/

early this morning per latest water vapor upper
level low was maintaining its east southeastward progression
across West Texas and southwest Oklahoma. In response to the
low...rain showers continued to lift northward across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas and getting wrapped around the
low over western Oklahoma and northern Texas.

These rain showers will remain possible through the day today as
the upper low pushes east southeast through the region. The better
chances for precipitation over the County Warning Area looks to be this morning ahead of
the low with precipitation chances tapering off from northwest to
southeast this afternoon. The upper low is expected to be southeast
of the County Warning Area this evening and thus will not carry mentionable probability of precipitation
beyond 00z. Also today...cloudy skies should continue over the County Warning Area
through the morning hours and then begin to clear out from north
to south with the exiting low. All of these conditions will help
to keep temperatures from warming all that much over southeast Oklahoma
into northwest Arkansas...while some possible afternoon sun over
northeast Oklahoma could get temperatures into the middle/upper 60s.
Northerly winds and clearing skies tonight will allow for temperatures to
fall into the 40s for most locations by early Wednesday morning.

In the wake of the exiting upper low...high pressure is forecast
to filter into the Southern Plains...with northerly upper level
flow over the central Continental U.S.. by the end of the week...high
pressure shifts east of the region with the upper level flow
becoming more downslope flow. At the surface...for the County Warning Area...this
means dry conditions and temperatures warming each day into the
weekend. Southerly winds return for the weekend which will aid in
temperatures warming back into the 80s for much of the County Warning Area.

Latest model solutions continue to indicate the next chance for
precipitation to be Sunday night/Monday as a weak upper level impulse
quickly moves through the Southern Plains within nearly zonal
flow. Greater precipitation chances look to be Tuesday into Wednesday as
a shortwave and associated frontal boundary approach the plains.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 47 75 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
fsm 45 74 49 75 / 10 0 0 0
mlc 45 73 47 75 / 10 0 0 0
bvo 44 75 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
fyv 40 70 44 71 / 10 0 0 0
byv 43 69 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
mko 44 72 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
Mio 43 72 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
f10 46 73 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
hhw 45 72 48 75 / 10 0 0 0


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...21
long term....05

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations