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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
547 PM CST Wednesday Dec 17 2014

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Rain showers will continue to push northeast across eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening. Bvo taf site will
have the potential of some light wintry mix within the rain this
evening. Overnight...the widespread rain showers should shift east
of the region...with areas of drizzle remaining possible into the
morning hours Thursday across the region. Varying ceilings from
IFR to VFR should also continue through the evening hours and is
expected to fall into the LIFR to IFR categories overnight and
much of Thursday. A boundary looks to move into the region
Thursday afternoon shifting winds out of the northeast and
possibly lifting conditions back to MVFR.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 311 PM CST Wednesday Dec 17 2014/

Discussion...
a changeover to liquid precipitation this afternoon has been observed as
lower layers have saturated and stronger warm advection continues
to draw closer. High probability of precipitation...with isolated thunder expected within
the stronger warm air advection zone will continue through 06z...but will taper
probability of precipitation from SW to NE as precipitation becomes better focused along the boundary
that sharpens from west-east across southern Kansas/MO overnight. Will keep mention
of mixed precipitation along the border counties later tonight as temperatures
hover near freezing in those locations. Lower rain chances for
most of the day tomorrow as the region will remain between the
departing wave and approaching main upper trough. Highest quantitative precipitation forecast
signals remain south and east of the area...with models showing
consistency with upper trough motion along with redeveloping
associated surface reflections across Texas and la. Will continue
with highest probability of precipitation across southeast OK and northwest Arkansas Friday and Friday night.
Will keep mixed precipitation mention across far northwest Arkansas late Friday in
conjunction with colder air that filters in behind the departing
system. Weak upper trough swings through Sunday...but it appears
moisture will be limited...so will keep probability of precipitation low across just the
western zones. Stronger upper trough in northwest flow will push a front into
the region by early next week...and will offer the next chances
for precipitation across all of the area for Monday night/Tuesday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 34 44 37 44 / 80 20 20 20
fsm 35 48 43 44 / 90 20 20 30
mlc 37 48 41 46 / 80 20 20 30
bvo 32 41 35 42 / 90 30 20 20
fyv 32 44 38 43 / 90 30 20 20
byv 32 41 36 40 / 90 30 20 20
mko 35 44 39 45 / 90 20 20 20
Mio 33 40 35 41 / 90 30 20 20
f10 36 45 39 45 / 80 20 20 20
hhw 38 50 44 48 / 90 20 30 60

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Aviation...20

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