Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1233 PM CDT sun may 19 2013
Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Periodic VFR ceilings with building cumulus field will prevail through
the afternoon. Storms will initiate late afternoon and likely
impact NE OK sites...possibly with brief significant impacts.
Storms will continue eastward and possibly spread across far northwest
OK...with lesser chances along and south of Interstate 40. Storms
will diminish late tonight...before redeveloping later tomorrow
afternoon.
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 1148 am CDT sun may 19 2013/
...
Discussion...
all signs continue to point toward significant severe weather late
this afternoon and evening primarily across NE OK. Storms may be
just as intense further south and east across east central OK into
northwest Arkansas however they are likely to be reduced in number with
eastward and southward extent. Less deep moisture and a strong
capping inversion continue to support much lower storm chances
toward southeast OK.
Forecast wind profiles support a window of favorable shear
parameters for strong to violent tornadoes. Whether this is
realized will depend largely on eventual storm/S/
evolution...however understanding the potential exists is
noteworthy.
Updated forecast will refine cloud cover and adjust for retreating
outflow boundary from early morning convection. The presence and
placement of this boundary...however subtle...may also be key in
the highest tornadic potential this evening.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 89 69 84 67 / 30 80 70 90
fsm 91 69 87 69 / 10 20 20 90
mlc 88 72 85 70 / 10 40 30 90
bvo 88 69 83 64 / 40 90 60 80
fyv 86 67 83 68 / 10 30 40 90
byv 87 66 82 67 / 10 50 50 90
mko 88 68 85 68 / 10 50 50 90
Mio 88 69 83 66 / 20 80 60 90
f10 87 69 85 69 / 20 50 60 90
hhw 88 70 86 71 / 10 20 20 60
&&
Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&
$$
Aviation...07
