Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
456 PM CST sun Jan 25 2015
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
For the 0z tafs... ceilings are expected to clear during the
evening. Until then... MVFR ceilings 0r near MVFR can be expected
at northwest Arkansas sites. Gusty northwest winds currently
affecting all sites will become light and variable this evening.
Previous discussion... /issued 306 PM CST sun Jan 25 2015/
Wind gusts seem to be subsiding just a bit...given the frequency
of the 40 miles per hour gusts in eastern Oklahoma has diminished in the
past hour or so. Will let the Wind Advisory go as planned at 4
PM...although some gusts above 30 miles per hour still likely through sunset.
The surface pressure gradient will relax fairly quickly during the
evening and overnight hours as a surface ridge moves in behind the
departing low pressure. The low cloudiness that developed in
response to the low pressure system will also diminish from west
to east during the evening as it pulls away from the region. The
decreasing cloudiness and lighter winds will allow temperatures to
drop several degrees lower than last night...especially in favored
The big warmup begins in earnest tomorrow...and will continue
through Wednesday. Westerly low level winds and sunny skies tomorrow
will allow temperatures to warm some 10 to 15 degrees higher than
todays...with parts of eastern Oklahoma nearing 70 for highs.
Widespread highs near to above 70 degrees will be likely for both
Tuesday and Wednesday...with Wednesday being the warmest day of
the period with the pre frontal warm nose firmly in place. At this
point...do not think that record highs will be reachable.
Wednesday/S record high in Tulsa /82 degrees/ is the highest
recorded January temperature ever in the city. Fort Smith/S record
highs during this stretch are very near 80 as well. Despite the
very warm temperatures...wind speeds look to remain low enough to
prevent widespread dangerous fire weather conditions...although at
least a limited fire danger will exist into middle week.
The next cold front will pass through the area Wednesday night and
into Thursday...with all indications pointing toward a dry frontal
passage. Dry weather will continue into Friday...and perhaps even
into Friday night.
Looking toward the weekend...the medium range model suite is in a
bit better agreement about precipitation chances...although there
continue to be differences in how strong the cold air present will
be. Best chances of precipitation and certainly the highest quantitative precipitation forecast
continue to be across southern portions of the forecast
area...where the best source of deep layer moisture should be. A
quick drying trend on the northern edge of the precipitation
shield will occur as colder and drier air moves in with another
frontal surge...with the following week looking to begin on the
dry side. The forecast vertical temperature structures are all
supportive of at least some wintry precipitation...and at this
point more likely to be somewhere in that cold rain...freezing
rain...and possibly sleet spectrum. The current data and even
thinking back to yesterday/S data are not really supportive of a
significant snow potential...so that is one precipitation type
that will not be included in this forecast package. Standard low
confidence forecast caveats apply...namely expect the details to
continue to evolve and continue to keep track of updated forecasts