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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1035 am CST Friday Feb 12 2016

Discussion...
leading edge of Canadian surface high continues to push through
eastern OK and northwest Arkansas this morning and will likely be south
of the Red River this afternoon. The coldest air remains well
north of the initial wind shift and the main effect today will be
an increase in north winds, with temps at or above normal in most
locations with sunny to partly cloudy skies. Overall forecast in
good shape.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 536 am CST Friday Feb 12 2016/

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
A back door cold front is expected to move through eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas today...with winds becoming
northerly. A few low clouds could possibly reach into far
northeast Oklahoma this morning...otherwise few to broken high
clouds should remain common through the majority of the taf
period. VFR conditions should persist through the period for all
taf locations.

Previous discussion... /issued 326 am CST Friday Feb 12 2016/

Discussion...
deep cyclonic flow will bring an Arctic high/very cold airmass
into the eastern half of the country over the next few days.
While this will be more of a glancing blow for our
area...temperatures will dip into the upper teens and 20s by
Saturday morning with highs slowly warming back into the 40s. The
surface high will shift east Saturday/Saturday night with
southerly flow developing as surface low pressure deepens in the
Lee of The Rockies. A decent wetbulbing event looks to be shaping
up as the initially very dry airmass gradually moistens Saturday
night into early Sunday. Forecast soundings suggest light freezing
rain (or possibly freezing drizzle) across far eastern OK and
northwest Arkansas early Sunday...with the best chances of accumulating
ice across northwest Arkansas. While overall icing amounts look light at
this time...we could be looking at an advisory type event. Still
much too early to entertain winter weather headlines...but stay
tuned.

A stronger upper wave is forecast to drop through Sunday
night/Monday morning...with an uptick in precipitation likely
mainly across southeast OK into western Arkansas. Some additional light
icing will be possible along the northern edge of the
precipitation...primarily in the valley areas of northwest Arkansas.

Upper ridging/much higher mid-level heights quickly return by
mid-week with an impressive warming trend expected. Highs should
bounce back into the 60s for Tuesday/Wednesday...with 70s likely
toward the end of the week. Fire danger concerns will return along
with the warmer temperatures and strengthening winds.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 52 20 44 34 / 0 0 0 10
fsm 58 27 45 30 / 0 0 0 10
mlc 58 27 48 36 / 0 0 0 10
bvo 50 19 42 30 / 0 0 0 10
fyv 51 18 41 25 / 0 0 0 10
byv 49 16 36 23 / 0 0 0 10
mko 53 24 44 33 / 0 0 0 10
Mio 47 15 38 28 / 0 0 0 10
f10 54 24 45 36 / 0 0 0 10
hhw 64 31 50 35 / 0 0 0 10

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...14
long term....05

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