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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
311 PM CST Wednesday Dec 17 2014

Discussion...
a changeover to liquid precipitation this afternoon has been observed as
lower layers have saturated and stronger warm advection continues
to draw closer. High probability of precipitation...with isolated thunder expected within
the stronger warm air advection zone will continue through 06z...but will taper
probability of precipitation from SW to NE as precipitation becomes better focused along the boundary
that sharpens from west-east across southern Kansas/MO overnight. Will keep mention
of mixed precipitation along the border counties later tonight as temperatures
hover near freezing in those locations. Lower rain chances for
most of the day tomorrow as the region will remain the departing
wave and approaching main upper trough. Highest quantitative precipitation forecast signals remain
south and east of the area...with models showing consistency with
upper trough motion along with redeveloping associated surface
reflections across Texas and la. Will continue with highest probability of precipitation
across southeast OK and northwest Arkansas Friday and Friday night. Will keep mixed
precipitation mention across far northwest Arkansas late Friday in conjunction with
colder air that filters in behind the departing system. Weak upper
trough swings through Sunday...but it appears moisture will be
limited...so will keep probability of precipitation low across just the western zones.
Stronger upper trough in northwest flow will push a front into the region
by early next week...and will offer the next chances for precipitation
across all of the area for Monday night/Tuesday.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 34 44 37 44 / 60 20 20 20
fsm 35 48 43 44 / 90 20 20 30
mlc 37 48 41 46 / 70 20 20 30
bvo 32 41 35 42 / 70 30 20 20
fyv 32 44 38 43 / 80 30 20 20
byv 32 41 36 40 / 80 30 20 20
mko 35 44 39 45 / 80 20 20 20
Mio 33 40 35 41 / 80 30 20 20
f10 36 45 39 45 / 60 20 20 20
hhw 38 50 44 48 / 90 20 30 60

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...69
long term....23

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