Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
620 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Northwest Arkansas forecast point soundings not as robust for the potential for
dense fog development tonight compared to last night. Could still
see patchy fog...primarily in the fyv/xna areas with visibilities
briefly falling to IFR conditions. Low level winds/mixing should
remain high enough to keep fog from becoming dense.
Previous discussion... /issued 343 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014/
areas of fog are likely tonight primarily across western Arkansas with
attention turning to the next wave the pass the area Wednesday
night. Scattered showers / isolated thunderstorms will accompany
the wave as it passes with precipitation ending from west to east across
the area by early Thursday afternoon. Any cool down will be
primarily due to an increase in cloud cover as no meaningful
airmass change will follow the wave passage.
Much above normal temperatures will quickly spread across the plains as
strong upper ridging amplifies through the central states. The
warm temperatures will prevail into Monday ahead of the next wave and
associated cold front...which are currently timed to pass through
the region late Monday through Monday night. European model (ecmwf)/GFS have come
into much better agreement today thus precipitation chances have trended
upward west/ this frontal passage.