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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
311 PM CDT Thursday Jul 2 2015

Discussion...
a weak surface boundary...primarily a wind-shift line...was noted
across NE OK extending into western OK. Scattered convection
continues to bubble across southern Kansas into northern OK...and this activity
is expected to gradually increase in intensity/coverage as it
encounters an unstable atmosphere (surface-based convective available potential energy 3500-4000
j/kg) across NE OK into northwest Arkansas. The high instability and deep
moisture content suggests that a few strong downbursts may occur
with convection along/near the weak front into the evening
hours...with the activity gradually sinking southward and weakening
after sunset.

The focus for more concentrated convection should shift a little
farther S into southeast OK and western Arkansas for Friday/Friday night...with
some intensification likely into the afternoon as another upper
wave swings through in the northwesterly flow aloft. A retreating surface
boundary along with the persistent northwesterly flow will result in
additional periods of showers/storms the remainder of the Holiday
weekend.

Given the high forecast precipitation-water values (around 2
inches)...areas of locally heavy rainfall and possible flooding
will be an additional concern for the next several days.

There may be a brief break from the precipitation later Sunday
into Monday...although long range models are in good agreement
bringing another weak front and increasing shower/thunderstorm
chances into the area for Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 72 88 69 89 / 60 60 50 30
fsm 74 86 70 88 / 70 70 60 40
mlc 73 84 69 87 / 70 60 60 50
bvo 68 87 66 89 / 40 50 40 20
fyv 69 83 64 84 / 60 70 50 30
byv 68 81 64 83 / 60 60 50 30
mko 71 84 69 87 / 60 70 50 30
Mio 68 86 67 89 / 40 60 40 20
f10 72 84 69 87 / 70 60 50 40
hhw 73 83 70 87 / 60 70 60 60

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...69
long term....18

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