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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1146 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015

concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
For the 6z tafs... VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites
throughout the 24 hour forecast period. Scattered thunderstorms
will occur Tuesday across northeast Oklahoma... eventually
spreading eastward into northwest Arkansas. This activity will be
represented in prob30 groups for the affected sites.


Previous discussion... /issued 907 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015/


Shortwave trough is moving across the central rockies at this time. The
system will shift east into the High Plains overnight and will
help to maintain convection to some extent into the overnight
hours. This activity will gradually spread east across
Oklahoma...with some decrease in intensity during the diurnal
instability minimum. The latest data from the NAM/hrrr suggest
that the activity should remain west of the forecast area through
12z...and thus no change to the dry forecast for tonight will be
made at this time. Rain chances do look good on Tuesday across the
north however.


Previous discussion... /issued 600 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015/

concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
For the 0z tafs... VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites
throughout the 24 hour forecast period. Thunderstorm chances will
increase Tuesday across northeast Oklahoma so prob30 groups have
been included in those tafs.

Previous discussion... /issued 333 PM CDT Monday Aug 3 2015/

the near term focus is on the wave currently centered over
northern Utah with the attendant trough axis arcing
southeastward. This wave will continue to rotate around the
periphery of the western ridge and help ignite another round of
convection along the High Plains tonight. Additionally...a weak
frontal boundary currently extending through eastern Kansas will
settle southward near the OK/Kansas border and serve as a low level
focus for the overnight convection to expand eastward during the
day on Tuesday. Result being a good chance of convection along the
northern periphery of the forecast area and extensive cloud cover
helping keep high temperatures below normal.

Convection is again likely to develop north of the surface boundary
Tuesday night as the primary vorticity center passes...and given the
current representation of this wave in vapor imagery...confidence
is high that it will be capable of supporting widespread
convection with exact placement the uncertainty. Again highest
chances will be across far NE OK into far northwest Arkansas as this wave
passes. Deep layer shear will be high for late severe
weather potential stands to increase especially if convection is
delayed and/or maintained into the stronger instability period of
Wednesday afternoon/ evening.

Thereafter the upper high begins to press eastward which will push
precipitation chances north and east of the region and allow temperatures to
trend upward. The eventual rain footprint over the next few days
will impact high temperatures into the extended...with triple digit heat
a good bet for some locations by the weekend into early next week.


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...



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