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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
928 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014

Discussion...
initial wave of precipitation faded fast as it approached eastern OK much
as short range hi res models suggested...and second surge is
beginning to move into western Osage/Pawnee counties at this time.
Most guidance continues to spread showers and thunderstorms
gradually east during the night as the upper wave now over western
Kansas continues to slowly move east. Overall trend of going forecast
covers this fairly well. Update will be issued mainly to reflect
timing of precipitation onset.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 612 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014/

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
For the 0z tafs... shower and thunderstorm activity will move
eastward across Oklahoma this evening... eventually affecting
Oklahoma sites. This activity will continue to spread eastward overnight...
affecting all taf sites by early Friday. Conditions at any site may
temporarily fall to MVFR near any heavier thunderstorms.

Previous discussion... /issued 357 PM CDT Thursday Aug 28 2014/

Discussion...
upper wave currently centered over Colorado will
move northeast through the plains into the Great
Lakes region this weekend. The south end of this
wave will bring showers and thunderstorms to our
forecast area beginning tonight through Saturday.

Precipitable water values of 1.5 - 1.8 likely to
make upwards of one half inch of precipitation
all areas. Highest likelihood of rain Friday and
Friday night. A cool front associated with upper
wave will never quite make into eastern OK...but
rather stretch out southwest to northeast from
southeast Kansas to the western Great Lakes by
Saturday.

Saturday not a wash out for this Holiday weekend
but nonetheless chance probability of precipitation especially southeast.
Sunday dry with seasonal temperatures.

Westerly flow on Labor Day with frontal boundary
stretched out across Kansas puts northern border
areas at risk for chance showers / thunderstorms.

Above normal temperatures again most of next week.
Gw

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 74 90 73 90 / 70 70 40 20
fsm 74 90 73 90 / 30 60 50 60
mlc 74 89 73 90 / 50 60 40 50
bvo 69 87 68 91 / 70 70 40 10
fyv 67 86 70 86 / 30 60 60 40
byv 68 86 70 86 / 20 60 60 40
mko 72 87 72 89 / 50 70 40 40
Mio 72 86 70 88 / 40 70 50 30
f10 72 89 72 89 / 70 70 40 40
hhw 72 90 73 90 / 30 40 30 40

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...14
long term....99

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