Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
534 am CST sun Jan 25 2015
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period
at all area taf sites.
Previous discussion... /issued 321 am CST sun Jan 25 2015/
cold front currently entering Osage County will sweep across the
area today...bringing gusty northwesterly winds and cooler temperatures. May
see some scattered showers over far NE OK/northwest Arkansas this morning...but
of more concern will be the increasing fire danger threat.
Temperatures and relative humidity values will remain above red flag warning
criteria...but the gusty winds along with afternoon relative humidity values
dipping below 40 percent will result in an increasing fire spread
potential. Parts of NE OK primarily northwest of I-44 should see a few
gusts near or above 40 miles per hour...so will plan on a Wind Advisory from
middle-morning through late afternoon.
The cooler weather will only last a day...as westerly winds/downslope
conditions will help boost Monday afternoon temperatures well above
seasonal norms once again. Numerical guidance looks a bit cool...and
have gone a few degrees above the warmest numbers. Could see a few
spots across eastern OK pushing 70f for a high. Tuesday/Wednesday
looking even warmer under middle-level ridging conditions. Expect highs
both days to range from the middle/upper 60s for northwest Arkansas/far eastern
OK...with lower 70s for much of eastern OK. Wouldn/T be surprised to see
a few locations west of Highway 75 push the middle 70s on Tuesday.
A cold front will arrive on Thursday...with temperatures returning
to near or slightly below seasonal norms going into next weekend.
Longer range models continue to struggle handling the
active/amplified flow next weekend...with confidence remaining very
low concerning return moisture/precipitation/precipitation type
across the forecast area. GFS has remained consistent bringing southern
stream moisture into at least the southern half of the area later Friday
through Saturday...although it/S thermal profiles are a bit warmer
than previous runs. Will continue to take a rather conservative
approach with probability of precipitation...as European model (ecmwf) also remains consistent keeping the
better moisture S of the region. At this time...any wintry
precipitation for next weekend appears light...but we'll continue to
monitor and fine tune through next week.
OK...Wind Advisory from 9 am Sunday to 4 PM Sunday for okz054-okz055-