Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
601 am CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
For the 12z tafs... VFR conditions will prevail at all sites
throughout the 24 hour forecast period. Southwest winds will
increase across the region later this morning. There will be a
slight chance for thunderstorms... mainly across northwest
Arkansas late in the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 257 am CDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015/
hot/humid conditions will continue today with heat indices in the
100-103 degree range. A few thunderstorms may clip far northwest
Arkansas this morning in association with ongoing mesoscale convective system over
Missouri. Another thunderstorm complex tonight may also move into
portions of far northwest Arkansas. The stronger storms however are
expected to remain primarily northeast of the area through
Operational models are in good agreement with developing strong
to severe mesoscale convective system over northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas Thursday
afternoon/evening with convective complex sweeping through much
of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas Thursday night into
Friday. Damaging downburst winds will be the primary severe threat
initially...but locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding will likely
become a more significant concern Thursday night into Friday
as precipitable waters around 2 inches persist.
Scattered shower/thunderstorm development will be likely through
the 4th of July weekend as a secondary upper wave moves out of
the Central Plains. Again locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding
will be possible...especially in areas that initially receive
heavy rainfall Thursday/Friday. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed
at some point in the upcoming days as the axis of heavier rainfall
becomes more certain.
Upper ridge will finally build far enough east to limit precipitation
chances into the early part of next week with hot/humid conditions
returning to the region.