Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1249 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Strato cumulus 2-3 thousand feet lifting above 3 thousand feet and becoming
scattered this afternoon. Showers/thunder moving into NE OK
sites kbvo ktul krvs between 02z and 07z tonight with lowering
conditions. Shower thunder area slow progression east overnight
into northwest Arkansas taf sites late night or Tuesday morning. Taf sites
kbvo ktul krvs most vulnerable for rain/thunder late night and
Previous discussion... /issued 1131 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015/
minor tweaks for the updated forecast. Low level cloud
persisting awhile longer.
Previous discussion... /issued 635 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015/
MVFR ceilings are likely to develop at all terminals within the next
couple of hours except for bvo/tul/rvs. These ceilings will lift during
the early afternoon. Thunderstorms and rain developing along the approaching cold
front will affect at least bvo toward the end of the valid taf
period...and perhaps tul/revise as well. MVFR...and likely periods of
IFR...conditions will occur in thunderstorms and rain. Not out of the question that we
could also see isolated thunderstorms and rain this afternoon at the northwest Arkansas terminals
and possibly bvo as well...but probability not high enough to
warrant inclusion in the tafs.
Previous discussion... /issued 230 am CDT Monday Jul 6 2015/
Heavy rainfall and flooding potential will be the main forecast
concerns over the next few days.
Should be a fairly quiet day today...though very humid with a
plume of rich moisture streaming north over the region from the
Gulf. The surface front extends from Minnesota southwest to
western Kansas this morning. The front will make southeastward
progress down into the forecast area tonight as a strong shortwave
trough moves across the upper Midwest and surface pressures rise
in its wake over the northern plains. A swath of rain/storms will
accompany the front as it continues to sag south into the Ozarks
and northeast Oklahoma on Tuesday before stalling. The latest data
continues to indicate that a frontal wave will develop by Tuesday
night and ride up the stalled front...bringing yet another round
of heavy rainfall to the same areas affected by the first round
with the initial frontal surge. Due to the potential for multiple
rounds of storms...training over the same areas...flash flooding
potential is high enough to warrant the issuance of a Flash Flood
Watch for northeast Oklahoma tonight through Wednesday.
There is some potential for warm advection storms across northeast
Oklahoma Wednesday night with the retreating warm front before
things taper off by Thursday as the front lifts north of our
region. Rising middle level heights will bring hot and dry weather
from Friday through the weekend. The ridge will be short-lived
however...as we return to a northwest flow pattern with another front
slated to arrive early next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 92 73 80 69 / 10 70 80 80
fsm 90 75 88 73 / 20 10 40 50
mlc 89 75 84 73 / 10 20 50 50
bvo 92 70 77 66 / 10 80 80 80
fyv 86 72 80 70 / 20 20 70 60
byv 87 72 80 70 / 20 20 70 60
mko 89 74 82 71 / 10 30 80 60
Mio 91 70 78 67 / 20 80 80 80
f10 89 74 81 70 / 10 40 70 70
hhw 91 75 89 74 / 10 10 20 30
OK...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
evening for okz054>067.