Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 PM CDT Thursday Oct 30 2014
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
A band of low clouds will move south and affect mainly the
northwest Arkansas taf sites with MVFR ceilings for a few hours
Friday morning. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail. North
winds will gust to around 20 knots Friday...but will diminish
quickly around sunset.
Previous discussion... /issued 934 PM CDT Thursday Oct 30 2014/
mostly clear skies and northwesterly winds 5 to 10 miles per hour were common
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening in the
wake of a weak cold front exiting the County Warning Area. To the north...a
secondary cold front located across northern Kansas was moving
southward with breezy northerly winds...scattered to overcast low
level clouds and a cooler airmass filtering in behind. This
secondary push of colder air is expected to continue its southward
push and reach the County Warning Area early Friday morning. Model soundings
indicate that the scattered to overcast low ceilings could also
reach into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Friday
morning. Thus for evening update...will adjust sky and wind grids
based on these trends and to add minor tweaks to temperatures for current
conditions. The rest of the forecast package seems to be handling
well as most locations should fall into the 40s overnight.
This colder airmass is expected to keep temperatures during the day
Friday about 10 to 15 degrees cooler compared to today...and with
Canadian high pressure moving through the plains lows Saturday
continue to look for widespread temperatures at/below freezing. For now
will leave current freeze headlines as is.
OK...freeze warning from 11 PM Friday to 10 am Saturday for okz049-
Freeze watch from 11 PM Friday to 10 am Saturday for okz053.
Arkansas...freeze warning from 11 PM Friday to 10 am Saturday for arz001-