Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
303 am CDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Discussion...
a ridge of high pressure aloft will begin to nudge into the
area from the southwest today. Before we get into something
of a dry period...the area will have to contend with a couple
of thunderstorm complexes. This morning there is thunderstorm
complex that extends from southwest Kansas into the Texas
Panhandle. The latest hrrr shows this complex moving into
central Oklahoma this morning as it decays. Have left probability of precipitation out
of the forecast for today but not feeling overly confident about
this decision. Could see some redevelopment on the outflow boundary
created by this complex this afternoon.
Another thunderstorm complex is expected to develop across western
Kansas again this afternoon/evening and make a run at northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late tonight into Thursday. Do
have probability of precipitation in the forecast to account for this feature as the
models have been consistently showing this for several runs.
The upper level ridge will continue to build over the area through
the weekend. There are some signs that there may be enough weakness
in the ridge that some isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Saturday and Sunday afternoons in the favored terrain areas of
southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 90 71 90 74 / 10 10 20 10
fsm 90 68 92 71 / 10 10 10 0
mlc 89 70 91 73 / 0 0 10 10
bvo 88 69 88 72 / 10 20 30 10
fyv 86 64 87 68 / 10 10 10 0
byv 87 65 88 68 / 10 10 10 10
mko 88 69 89 72 / 10 10 20 10
Mio 89 68 88 71 / 10 20 30 10
f10 88 70 90 73 / 10 10 10 10
hhw 89 70 92 72 / 0 0 10 10
&&
Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&
$$
Short term...12
long term....10
