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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
546 am CST Friday Dec 26 2014

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Ceilings 3-4k feet expanding north across entire taf area and
lowering to 15-25 hundred feet. Scattered rain breaking out this
afternoon becoming more widespread tonight. Isolated thunder
late tonight southeast OK not expected to impact taf sites.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 351 am CST Friday Dec 26 2014/

Discussion...
upper flow is backing across the area ahead of the digging system
near The Four Corners area. The result is deep-layer southerly
flow and increasing moisture. Satellite images Show Low clouds
developing beneath the stream of higher clouds. The cold front
across Kansas is expected to make rather slow progress southeast
in this setup and will likely not reach Osage County until late
afternoon. Temperatures today are tricky. If the clouds thicken as
expected then temperatures will generally rise 10 degrees or less and
stay in the 50s. But any significant sun could push readings
several degrees higher than the current forecast.

Scattered patches of light rain will develop with time
today...with fairly widespread rain in the area tonight as the
cold front pushes through the region. Elevated instability
develops as far north as extreme southeast Oklahoma tonight and an
isolated thunderstorm is possible.

It will be a race between the ending precipitation and the arrival of
enough cold air for a brief wintry mix. Right now it appears that
a little sleet or a little snow could mix with rain as it ends in
far northeast Oklahoma very late tonight or early on Saturday
morning. The best chance of any very light accumulation would be
in far northwest Osage County...but generally no accumulation is
expected at this time.

Seasonably cold weather will setup behind the current system and
persist into middle next week.

Toward the end of next week...around and just after the first of
the year...model guidance shows a significant system crossing the
middle of the country with the storm track over or near eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The current data suggests that
enough could air will be in place for at least some winter weather
potential with the beginning of the precipitation. The eventual
track of the system will determine how much of the region gets
into the warm sector. Overall forecast confidence is very low as
expected for a complex system 7 days away.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 56 38 42 25 / 30 60 20 0
fsm 56 48 48 30 / 20 60 50 10
mlc 56 41 41 27 / 30 60 40 0
bvo 56 34 41 21 / 20 50 10 0
fyv 53 47 47 25 / 20 60 50 10
byv 55 47 47 27 / 20 50 50 10
mko 56 40 42 26 / 20 60 40 0
Mio 56 38 40 24 / 20 60 20 0
f10 56 38 42 25 / 20 50 30 0
hhw 56 48 48 30 / 30 70 40 10

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...21
long term....08
aviation...21

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