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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
301 PM CDT Thursday may 28 2015

Discussion...
one area of rain/thunder lingers across northwest Arkansas this afternoon...with
additional showers and thunderstorms upstream. This convection
looks to impact eastern OK from the west later tonight. This
activity will move across the rest of the area during the day
tomorrow..so have essentially flip flopped probability of precipitation from morning to
afternoon. Focus will then turn to storms that develop along the
approaching cold front Friday night into Saturday. Once this
boundary passes through the region...rain chances will begin to
finally diminish as the long awaited airmass change begins to take
hold. Through this period however...locally high rainfall amounts
will remain possible...and the Flash Flood Watch will remain as is
into Sunday morning for eastern Oklahoma. Beyond Sunday...the early
part of the next week will be kept dry for now. Upper system that
had cleared the area over the weekend becomes trapped under modest
ridging that takes place over the central Continental U.S.. it looks at this
time that the eastern sections of the forecast area will remain on
the back side of the weakness...so have kept low probability of precipitation confined to
far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Have opted to keep
maximum temperatures for the early periods on the cooler side of
guidance. Once the front passes...some cooler overnight lows are
expected as the drier air settles over region for early next week.
Temperatures are expected to moderate some during the week as a
southerly component to the surface wind returns...and the
aforementioned chances for rain across the far eastern zones
remain low.



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 68 81 65 75 / 70 70 70 50
fsm 67 78 66 79 / 50 70 50 70
mlc 67 79 66 75 / 70 70 50 70
bvo 66 81 63 73 / 70 70 70 40
fyv 64 76 62 73 / 50 70 50 70
byv 66 77 63 73 / 50 70 50 70
mko 65 79 64 74 / 60 70 70 60
Mio 65 78 61 73 / 60 70 70 60
f10 67 80 65 73 / 70 70 70 50
hhw 68 78 66 79 / 50 70 50 70

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 am Sunday for okz049-okz053-okz054-
okz055-okz056-okz057-okz058-okz059-okz060-okz061-okz062-
okz063-okz064-okz065-okz066-okz067-okz068-okz069-okz070-
okz071-okz072-okz073-okz074-okz075-okz076.

Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...05
long term....23

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