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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE FREEZING DRIZLLE MAY CHANGE
TO DRIZZLE AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES
SNEAK ABOVE FREEZING. SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW STARTING TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA 
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. WILL GO
AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS AREA AND
REPLACE WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT. ADVISORY HAS
ALSO BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WARM NOSE ALOFT HAS SURGED THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING
RAIN PER OBSERVATIONS/DUAL POL RADAR TRENDS. AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WITH SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AS SOME AREAS MAY RISE JUST
ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT FOR NOW
WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IN THE ADVISORY.
ANY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES THAT REMAIN SUNDAY MORNING
WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. RAIN LIKELY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL HINT AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. DRY
FORECAST EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TREND
DEVELOPING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-
     ARZ010-ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...05



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