Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1130 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
A large area of clouds with bases about 2000-3500 feet will move
slowly southeast...and should gradually thin/dissipate during the
afternoon. By this evening...expect clear skies or high clouds at
all sites...along with rapidly diminishing winds around sunset.
Winds will be light north overnight...but as high pressure drifts east...
expect a turn to southeast late tomorrow morning.
Previous discussion... /issued 1028 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015/
have updated the forecast as temperatures in the south have been
able to climb into the lower 60s already at Hugo. The stronger cold
air advection is continuing to spread south so additional heating
will be offset by this cold advection... but maximum temperatures still
need to be adjusted upward.. especially in the south. Have also made
updated to sky cover with the stratus deck having moved into northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
Previous discussion... /issued 314 am CST Thursday Jan 29 2015/
a cold front currently located near a Jay to Okemah line will
sweep through the remainder of the forecast area by 12z this
morning. Temperatures will be noticeably colder today when compared
to the near record heat of yesterday. Temperatures will be mostly
a few degrees cooler on Friday as a surface high settles over the
middle-west in the wake of the departing cold front.
It continues to look like a wet weekend across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas as Pacific moisture surges into the Southern Plains
from the southwest. The precipitation will move into eastern Oklahoma
Friday night before overtaking the entire forecast area on Saturday.
The precipitation will end on Sunday as a middle-level shortwave in the
developing northwesterly flow aloft pushes a cold front through the
region. The precipitation type will predominately be rain through
Saturday evening before the potential of a wintry mix enters the
picture across northeastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Rain...
snow...sleet and even some freezing rain will all be possible late
Saturday night into Sunday. This forecast was made using a blend
of models that was trended slightly to the colder GFS solution. The
GFS is more aggressive in moving the cold front through the region Sunday
morning and hangs on the precipitation a little longer than the European model (ecmwf).
Either way...any accumulations of snow and ice will likely be minor given
the recent warm spell and the marginal temperatures during the event.
Monday morning looks like the coldest morning during this forecast period
as high pressure settles over the region behind the weekend cold front.
Kept the remainder of the forecast dry despite the passage of another
cold front mid-week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 53 27 48 35 / 0 0 0 20
fsm 57 30 55 35 / 0 0 0 10
mlc 58 30 52 35 / 0 0 0 20
bvo 52 21 48 33 / 0 0 0 30
fyv 50 26 51 32 / 0 0 0 10
byv 48 27 47 31 / 0 0 0 10
mko 53 27 50 33 / 0 0 0 20
Mio 50 24 47 33 / 0 0 0 10
f10 mmm mmm mmm mmm / mmm mmm mmm mmm
hhw 63 32 54 35 / 0 0 0 20