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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
604 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
For the 12z tafs... patchy fog may continue to affect kbvo over
the next couple of hours. Otherwise... VFR conditions are expected
to prevail at all sites into Sunday morning. However... patchy
fog may once again develop early Sunday morning across northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.




&&

Previous discussion... /issued 306 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014/

Discussion...
hot conditions expected today and Sunday...with near record high
temperatures. Strong high pressure aloft shifts east into
Texas Sunday with upper ridge extending north into the Central
Plains. Gusty S/south-southwest winds increase Sunday afternoon as tight
pressure gradient develops with high temperatures climbing to
around 90 degrees across northeast Oklahoma. Luckily most vegetation
has not cured yet or there would likely be at least a limited fire
threat.

Upper ridge will begin to break down into early next week in
advance of approaching upper trough. Increasing cloud cover on
Monday should keep highs in the lower 80s although still unseasonably
warm/breezy. Cold front will move into the area Monday evening
with scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms possible
into Tuesday with frontal passage. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts still appear to be fairly
light as stronger upper dynamics remain displaced north of the
area. Followed the slightly faster GFS and European model (ecmwf) solution with
frontal timing compared to the slower NAM. Cold front expected
to push south of the Red River Tuesday afternoon with precipitation
chances ending.

Weak high pressure builds into the area behind front by middle week
with a stronger surge of colder air expected Thursday into Friday
as a strong upper level storm system dives southeast out of Canada and
into the Great Lakes region. Below normal temperatures expected
by Friday with lows in the 30s possible across northwest Arkansas
.Just beyond the extended forecast...Next Saturday morning.

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Aviation...06

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