Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1041 am CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014
mesoscale convective system and associated mesoscale convective vortex making its' way across eastern OK and
into northwest Arkansas. Good soaking rain with this system.
Grids adjusted for increased pop northwest Arkansas ahead of
mesoscale convective system. Enough daylight behind the mesoscale convective system so temperatures recover
and reach previous forecast maximums.
Previous discussion... /issued 640 am CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014/
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
A complex of showers and thunderstorms will gradually weaken as it
moves southeast across the area this morning affecting most of the
taf sites. MVFR or lower conditions will be possible within the
stronger storms. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period.
Previous discussion... /issued 411 am CDT Thursday Jul 10 2014/
mesoscale convective system over southern Kansas was entering into north central Oklahoma
early this morning...while a frontal boundary had positioned
itself from southeast Oklahoma into southwest Kansas. Some
scattered showers and thunderstorms had also developed across
southeast Oklahoma near the southern portion of the front. Both
the scattered convection and the mesoscale convective system will continue to push
south to southeast this morning. There is the potential for heavy
rainfall as the mesoscale convective system moves into the County Warning Area...and also a limited severe
potential will be possible as the mesoscale convective system interacts with the front.
Strong winds and hail would be the main hazards. Greater chances
for precipitation will be with the mesoscale convective system across northeast Oklahoma through
the morning hours and shift eastward this afternoon as the mesoscale convective system
decays and the front lifts northeastward as a warm front.
Ongoing precipitation and cloud cover will look to hinder high temperatures this
afternoon across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas.
However...with the front pushing though...a late afternoon
temperature rally could be possible across northeast Oklahoma.
Thus...highs in the 80s to lower 90s from north to south looks
possible. The warm front is expected to exit the region and
shift precipitation chances off to the east this evening. Overnight
tonight...southerly winds return to the region as a ridge of high
pressure begins to build back over the Southern Plains.
The ridge of high pressure becomes the dominate feature over the
Southern Plains for the upcoming weekend. South to southwesterly
winds underneath the high will allow for hot and humid conditions
to return across the County Warning Area. High in the upper 90s/around 100 degrees
look likely over much of the region.
Late in the weekend a Canadian low pressure system is forecast to
approach the Great Lakes region with a weak cold front moving
through the plains. This boundary looks to push into the County Warning Area
Sunday night into Monday and become nearly stationary. A slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms will be possible with this
front...mainly across the northern part of the County Warning Area. Indications
are that temperatures with this front do not look to be affect too
much...thus continuing hot and humid conditions for the start of
the next work week. A more significant cold front looks to push
into the region Monday night and Tuesday as the Canadian low moves
over the Great Lakes. This will allow for continued precipitation chances
Tuesday and Wednesday and the potential for much cooler
temperatures. Latest extended model solutions indicate that high
temperatures around the middle part of next week could be in the
70s/80s...so we could have that going for US...which is nice.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 89 73 96 77 / 70 10 0 0
fsm 90 72 94 74 / 90 10 10 10
mlc 90 73 94 73 / 20 10 0 10
bvo 87 71 96 73 / 100 0 0 0
fyv 86 70 90 71 / 100 10 10 10
byv 86 69 89 72 / 90 10 10 10
mko 90 71 94 73 / 100 10 0 0
Mio 87 71 93 73 / 100 10 0 10
f10 90 72 94 73 / 50 10 0 0
hhw 93 72 95 73 / 20 10 0 10