Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1053 am CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015
an outflow boundary pushed southward into northeast Oklahoma this
morning and managed to briefly change wind direction and produce
some middle clouds. Other than that... there was no consequence. A
cold front currently lies just northwest of the forecast area
across southeast Kansas. As this feature moves closer to the
region tonight... thunderstorm chances will increase somewhat.
Today however... will look very much like the past several days.
The current forecast depicts this well and will not be updated
Previous discussion... /issued 619 am CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015/
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Brief MVFR visibility at fyv to start this forecast period...otherwise VFR
conditions all sites. Northestern OK sites should see an increase in
middle/high clouds after 00z. Weak cold front across southeastern Kansas/north central
OK pushes southward into northestern OK late today with widely scattered to
scattered thunderstorms and rain along/north of it. At this time...probability of thunderstorms and rain
affecting any one site is too low to include in taf.
Previous discussion... /issued 252 am CDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015/
weak boundary poised to move into the northern sections of the forecast area
later today...with low end precipitation chances holding off until
tonight. Current heat advisory alignment looks good as the northern
zones will likely see cooler temperatures this afternoon as the
boundary drifts into the area. Low rain chances will continue into
Friday as the retrograding ridge allows the surface boundary to
slip a little further south into the forecast area. Mean ridge
positioning will remain to the west through the weekend which may
keep the edge off temperatures for most locations. Middle level
height rises take place through the weekend..which should end rain
chances. Models hint at slightly improved middle level flow at the
tail end of this forecast cycle...but will keep forecast dry
OK...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for okz049-053-060>062-
Arkansas...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for arz019-020-029.