Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
607 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
For the 0z tafs... VFR conditions will prevail at all sites over
the next 24 hours. South to southwest winds will increase areawide during
the day Friday.
Previous discussion... /issued 300 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2014/
hot and humid today with a few spots nearing heat index of 105. A
few showers and thunderstorms developing in moist axis in north
central Texas should remain west and south of County Warning Area through the
evening. Upper ridge centered over the southeast will build back to
the northwest this weekend with middle level temperatures rising and leading
to several days of above normal temperatures...with parts of eastern OK
near or above the century mark for a few days. Forecast soundings
starting Friday do indicate potential for drier air to mix down
each afternoon which will keep heat index readings just below 105
and thus no heat headlines will be issued.
Model solutions on breaking down the ridge later next week have
been inconsistent...though today both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS bring a
front through by about Thursday. The forecast will reflect a modest
coo down by then with low chances of thunderstorms for the
Tuesday through Thursday time frame.