Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
649 PM CDT Friday Apr 24 2015

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Showers/scattered thunder southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas
ending from west to east this evening. Intermittent MVFR ceilings
at sites kmlc kfsm kfyv through 06z. Potential IFR ceilings in
showers/thunder at site kfsm. All sites expected to be VFR by 10z
with brisk west/southwest wind balance of taf period.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 328 PM CDT Friday Apr 24 2015/

Discussion...
forecast for this evening and into tonight has been muddled
by the ongoing shield of showers and thunderstorms across
southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. This activity is occurring
north of a warm front across northern Texas. Additional thunderstorms
have begun to develop near a dry line across the Texas
Panhandle and southwest Oklahoma. There is the potential for some of
the thunderstorms developing across southwest Oklahoma to make it
into northeast Oklahoma before dissipating. The instability across
the Tulsa forecast area has been hampered greatly today by the
extensive cloud cover and the rain shield across southeast Oklahoma.
This will likely preclude the area from seeing a widespread severe
weather outbreak. However...a few thunderstorms could reach severe
limits across northeast Oklahoma as thunderstorms developing out
west skirt the area and possibly across extreme southeast Oklahoma.
Large hail and wind gusts to around 60 miles per hour will be the concern. The
thunderstorms associated with the main upper wave currently lifting
out of northeastern New Mexico are expected to remain north of the
area across Kansas. The threat for showers and thunderstorms is
expected to end by 12z Saturday as the upper level wave shifts into
the Mississippi Valley.

Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected on Saturday with temperatures
approximately 10 degrees above normal. This occurs in advance of a cold
front that will move through northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
Saturday and the remainder of the region on Sunday. The chances of showers
and thunderstorms return Sunday night through Tuesday as the upper level
low currently moving into the northwest United States moves across the
plains.

Dry weather returns middle to late week as high pressure prevails at the
surface and aloft.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 60 84 55 76 / 20 10 10 10
fsm 60 87 58 82 / 50 10 10 10
mlc 61 83 56 86 / 50 10 10 10
bvo 60 84 51 73 / 30 10 10 10
fyv 58 79 52 75 / 40 10 10 10
byv 59 79 52 68 / 40 10 10 10
mko 58 83 55 79 / 40 10 10 10
Mio 60 80 52 71 / 50 10 10 10
f10 59 83 56 80 / 30 10 10 10
hhw 62 85 56 86 / 80 10 10 10

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...06
long term....06
aviation...21

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations