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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1042 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015

Discussion...
a few showers lingering within mid level moist axis lying across
southeast Oklahoma this morning, well ahead of frontal boundary
which remains northwest of Tulsa at this time. Still a few showers
or an isolated storm possible through the afternoon ahead of the
front as indicated by hi res short range models as it pushes
south and eventually loses definition, but at this time feel that
most of the precip threat has ended for the day. Area of low
clouds trying to expand south behind front and this could keep
temps down a few degrees this afternoon. Will send another update
to pops and sky condition, but will keep high temp forecast as is
for the time being.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 642 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015/

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Some patchy fog may develop tonight, with kbvo most likely to see
reduced visibilities. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out, especially at the Arkansas sites, but the chances are
too low to include in the taf's, except at kfsm early this
morning.

Previous discussion... /issued 416 am CDT Sat Aug 29 2015/

Discussion...
weak frontal boundary north central OK into far
southeast Kansas leisurely drifting southeast. Light
showers southeast OK and northwest Arkansas well ahead
of frontal boundary. Minor convective line North-
East OK southeast Kansas border near/with the front.
Chance pops today areas east and south of Tulsa.
Best chance for measurable rain Arkansas zones.

00z European model (ecmwf)..which put out > 0.10 inch rain ending
12z this morning over northern zones... bullish
with precip tonight for southeast OK / northwest
Arkansas. Other models spitting out negligible precip.
Stayed with previous dry forecast at this time.

H500 ridge folds over the top Sunday/Monday with
h500 trough to our southeast. This will keep our
southeast zones close to the western edge precip
chances Monday/Tuesday. Ridge continues to build
north midweek. GFS brings energy from East Texas &
la to undercut the ridge..while European model (ecmwf) keeps that
energy farther southeast. Maintained dry seasonal
forecast.
Gw

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 87 66 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
fsm 90 69 90 69 / 20 20 20 20
mlc 92 68 91 70 / 10 20 10 10
bvo 84 62 87 63 / 10 10 10 10
fyv 85 64 85 65 / 20 20 20 10
byv 85 64 85 65 / 20 20 20 20
mko 89 66 88 69 / 10 20 10 10
Mio 85 65 86 67 / 10 20 10 10
f10 90 66 88 70 / 10 10 10 10
hhw 94 69 93 70 / 20 20 10 20

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...14
long term....12

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