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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1137 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Surface cold front to move through the area from north to south
around 12z across far NE OK and through the morning hours for
sites to the south and east. Warm and moist airmass combined with
light winds ahead of the front will likely aid in fog potential
across NE OK and northwest Arkansas for portions of the overnight...resulting in a
period of MVFR/IFR visibilities prior to frontal passage. Low chances for
thunderstorms and rain will be handled with thunderstorms in the vicinity across NE OK and northwest Arkansas just ahead
of front. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail outside of fog and
isolated thunder...and for the remaining portion of the taf as
drier air settles in behind the front.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 701 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014/

Discussion...

A band of storms is ongoing over east central Kansas along a pre-
frontal trough/wind shift. The synoptic cold front lags behind and
is near the Nebraska-Kansas border at this time. The latest local WRF and
hrrr runs show potential for convection over northeast OK and
possibly northwest Arkansas after midnight tonight. It is unclear
whether this will be new development...or a continuation of what
is currently going on. The hrrr seems to think the former rather
than the latter. A Theta-E ridge axis lies across southeast OK
down into northeast OK...so either scenario is possible once the
focusing boundary gets down here. Regardless...with the NAM/local
WRF/hrrr all showing something over NE OK later tonight...I have
raised probability of precipitation some in this area. Text/web products have been updated.

Lacy

Previous discussion... /issued 608 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014/

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Surface cold front to move through the area from north to south
after 12z. Warm and moist airmass combined with light winds ahead
of the front will aid in fog potential across NE OK and northwest Arkansas
overnight...resulting in a period of MVFR/IFR visibilities. Low chances
for thunderstorms and rain will be handled with thunderstorms in the vicinity across NE OK and northwest Arkansas just
ahead of front. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail outside of
fog and isolated thunder...and for the remaining portion of the
taf once the boundary moves through.

Previous discussion... /issued 329 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014/

Discussion...
surface analysis at 3 PM showed pre-frontal trough extending from
roughly kstj-klbl with actual cold front lagging from extreme northwest
Missouri into southeast Colorado. Front will gradually drop south this
evening and will likely be approaching OK/Kansas border by midnight or
even later. Given weak convergence along boundary...weak lapse
rates ahead of the front and upper level support well to the
northeast...not expecting much more than scattered convection
late tonight. Thunderstorm chances will trend south during the day
Sunday...although there will likely be a lull in the activity
during the morning or early afternoon before redevelopment
commences south of I-40 in the afternoon...again with scattered
coverage at best.

Front will usher in much lower dew points leading to stretch of
pleasant temperatures and mainly dry weather. Weak upper low passing to our
northwest Tuesday/Wednesday may inch close enough to bring a chance of
showers to far northwest areas. However with the surface pattern
featuring a broad area of high pressure extending all the way from
New England to OK/AR...dry and stable regime will persist through
the remainder of the extended period.

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Aviation...23

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