Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
640 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
MVFR ceilings and visibilities will impact all taf sites from west to east
this morning into the afternoon as thunderstorm chances increase.
A cold front will enter eastern Oklahoma this afternoon...and will
result in northwest winds with surface gusts ~25 kts. Behind the
boundary...VFR conditions will prevail by middle afternoon across the
NE OK taf sites...and will translate east as the front moves past
the southeast OK and northwest Arkansas taf sites by early evening.
Previous discussion... /issued 313 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015/
lingering showers with a few embedded thunderstorms persist across
portions of eastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas early this morning.
Active weather pattern will continue today as upper low over
eastern Colorado begins to shift southeast into the area. In
response...developing surface low over southwest Oklahoma will
track into southeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Ahead of low and
approaching cold front...atmosphere is expected to become very
unstable over much of the area as steep middle level lapse rates
overspread the warm sector.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop along/ahead of
surface low/cold front this afternoon with the potential for a
few super-cells/very large hail/damaging winds. Locally backed
surface winds near triple point and along any residual boundaries
may provide an enhanced tornado threat...especially across far
southeast Oklahoma. Cold front is expected to sweep east of the
region this evening with the severe weather threat ending.
Surface high pressure will quickly build into the Southern Plains
on Monday behind front with mild/dry conditions. Could see a few
elevated showers/thunderstorms into Tuesday as fast moving upper
wave moves out of the central rockies. Better thunderstorm chances
are expected Wednesday into Thursday ahead of developing upper low
over the Desert Southwest...with precipitation chances continuing as
main storm system moves into the Central Plains by late week.
Could see multiple rounds of severe weather during this time with
the potential for heavy rainfall before a stronger cold front
moves through into the early part of next weekend.