Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1108 PM CST Thursday Feb 26 2015

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
For the 6z tafs... clouds will increase at all sites over the
next 3 hours... while winds slowly shift to the northeast... then
eventually to the east. Skies will remain overcast... but
ceilings are expected to remain within VFR levels. Light snowfall
may affect eastern Oklahoma sites beginning Friday afternoon. Have
only included in kmlc taf as probabilities are too low at other
sites.




&&

Previous discussion... /issued 509 PM CST Thursday Feb 26 2015/

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
For the 0z tafs... VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites
for the first portion of the 24 hour forecast period. Gusty
northerly winds will ease somewhat overnight. Clouds will
increase at all sites over the next 24 hours... while winds slowly
shift to the northeast. MVFR ceilings will likely affect a few
sites Friday morning.

Previous discussion... /issued 419 PM CST Thursday Feb 26 2015/

Discussion...
partly cloudy skies and northerly winds gusting 15-25 miles per hour have
been common across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this
afternoon in the wake of a cold front that moved through last
night. Arctic surface high pressure was continuing to push
southward across the plains today and will move across the County Warning Area
tonight and Friday. This will reinforce the cold airmass
currently in place...keeping high temperatures Friday below freezing for
most locations. Breezy northerly winds combined with the colder
temperatures Friday morning will create wind chill values to again fall
into the range of a couple degrees below zero over far northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas to around 10 degrees far
southeast Oklahoma.

Tonight and during the day Friday...a subtle middle level wave is
expected to move eastward approaching and then across the County Warning Area.
This will allow for chances of light snow to be possible...with
greater chances over southeast Oklahoma. Drier air over the region
behind last nights cold front along with surface winds becoming
more easterly could slow the progression of precipitation making it to
the ground Friday and limit the overall amount of accumulation.
Will carry amounts of less than one inch over southeast Oklahoma
to near trace amounts over far northeast Oklahoma. Precipitation chances
should taper off Friday evening...though will keep a very slight
pop into Saturday morning.

A low pressure system is forecast to move onto the West Coast
Friday and work its way southward toward Baja California of California by Sunday and
remain there into the middle part of next week. With the low to
the southwest of the County Warning Area...this will create low level flow to
return out of the south southwest with increasing moisture/warm
air advection across the County Warning Area ahead of a low pressure system
dropping southeastward out of central Canada. The result will be
chances for precipitation to develop Saturday into Sunday night/Monday
when the next cold front moves through.

Surface temperatures Saturday are expected to be below freezing and
slowly warm to near/above freezing by Saturday evening.
Thus...precipitation Saturday will start out as snow and transition from
snow to a wintry mix to rain from south to north Saturday
afternoon/night. The freezing line overnight looks to set up over
east central Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas which will allow for
a snow/snow mixing with sleet near the Kansas border to a freezing
rain/sleet mix for much of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest
Arkansas to mainly rain for southeast Oklahoma into west central
Arkansas. During the day Sunday...southerly winds and somewhat
stronger warm air advection will help to warm temperatures above freezing
and change all precipitation over to rain ahead of the approaching cold
front. Latest model solutions diverge on timing of the front and
precipitation behind the front. Current thinking is that the front moves
through Sunday evening/night with a continued chance of precipitation
into Monday behind the front. Precipitation type behind the front looks
to again be wintry mix/freezing rain Sunday night changing back to
rain during the day Monday.

Snowfall amounts Saturday through Sunday look to be close
to/slightly over one inch for far northeast Oklahoma with lesser
amounts southward. Some ice accumulation may be possible as well as
the precipitation changes over from south to north. Any amounts at this
time look to be less than a tenth of an inch over northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

For the extended period of next week...precipitation chances will
continue to be possible through the middle part of next week as
another wave is forecast to move through Tuesday with the low to
the southwest forecast to lift across the region
Wednesday/Thursday. Ahead of the wave Monday night and
Tuesday...warmer temperatures and increasing instability will allow for
chances of thunderstorms to be possible. A cold front looks to
move across the region as the wave to the southwest lifts into
the region and joins back up with the northerly upper level flow.
Thus precipitation chances will again remain for the County Warning Area into Thursday
with some possible wintry weather behind this cold front. Some
good news is that after this wave moves through...extended model
solutions try to finally dry out the County Warning Area for next weekend.

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Aviation...06

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations