Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
522 am CST Friday Dec 13 2013
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Areal coverage of rain to increase across all the taf sites
through the early portion of the taf period...ceilings and visibilities will
gradually fall to MVFR categories through the afternoon...with IFR
ceilings and visibilities in fog and drizzle possible again
tonight...especially across the northwest Arkansas taf sites.
Previous discussion... /issued 316 am CST Friday Dec 13 2013/
upper low currently moving over Arizona early this morning will
continue shifting east into the Southern Plains today. Scattered
showers have developed ahead of feature in low level jet. Strong
warm air advection is dominating any evaporational cooling taking
place and therefore expect surface temperatures to likely stay or
rise above freezing before onset of any significant precipitation.
Marginal elevated instability could support a few thunderstorms
this afternoon...primarily across southeast Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas. Heavier precipitation will begin to shift east
of the area this evening ahead of strong cold front...which will
move into northeast Oklahoma by midnight. Areas of drizzle will
remain overnight with a brief window for light freezing drizzle
late tonight into early Saturday morning. Again...precipitation is
expected to remain light and do not anticipate any adverse travel
impacts. Cold breezy conditions will continue during the day
Saturday as high pressure builds into the region.
Warming trend will develop on Sunday and continue through the
early to middle part of the work week ahead of next strong Arctic
front which is expected around Friday. Although currently just
beyond the extended periods...very cold conditions expected into
next weekend with at least a limited potential for wintry
precipitation. Stay tuned.