Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
514 am CDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Discussion...
corrected to reflect cancellation of Flood Watch
for those counties northwest of Interstate 44.
Current convective line elevated thunder from
southwest Oklahoma to east central Oklahoma...
rather active at 930z. Cool front from extreme
southeast corner of Kansas southwest to low in
West Texas. Southwest upper flow and slow cold
frontal progression will produce a lot of rain
and thunder for southeast Oklahoma..as well as
west central and northwest Arkansas. Threat of
severe storms continues today for southeast OK
and west central Arkansas. Current Flood Watch
will need to be monitored for the inclusion of
Choctaw and Pushmataha counties.
Thunder threat finally ends this evening as 500 mb
trough axis moves east of the forecast area.
Minimal pop retained from earlier forecast for
moist flow working under 500 mb ridge Thursday.
European model (ecmwf) forecast west to east frontal boundary
across the forecast area Saturday with precipitation.
GFS dry. Leaned with European model (ecmwf) outcome for chance
probability of precipitation.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 76 56 80 59 / 70 30 0 0
fsm 77 58 81 60 / 90 80 0 0
mlc 77 56 82 61 / 90 50 0 10
bvo 75 54 79 55 / 40 20 10 0
fyv 71 55 77 54 / 90 80 0 10
byv 74 57 76 54 / 90 80 10 10
mko 73 55 81 59 / 90 50 0 0
Mio 73 55 77 56 / 60 40 10 10
f10 75 56 81 60 / 90 40 0 10
hhw 79 61 83 63 / 90 60 0 10
&&
Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM Tuesday for okz058-okz062-okz063-
okz065-okz066-okz067-okz068-okz069-okz070-okz071-okz072-
okz073-okz074-okz075-okz076.
Arkansas...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM Tuesday for arz001-arz002-arz010-
arz011-arz019-arz020-arz029.
&&
$$
Short term...05
long term....21
