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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
634 am CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR through the entire taf period.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 353 am CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015/

Discussion...
an upper ridge will remain over the area through the weekend
resulting in a continuation of above normal temperatures along
with minimal rain chances. Isolated diurnal convection will be
possible by the weekend over the favored terrain areas but pops
are too low to be included in the forecast at this time.
Persistence continues to be the best temperature guidance with low
level thermal fields supporting about a 1 degree fahrenheit
increase in both maximum and minimum temperatures each day
through the weekend. Either Sunday or Monday will be the hottest
day depending on cloud cover/possible storm outflow by Monday.

The upper ridge breaks down next week allowing a frontal boundary
to approach from the north. The initial approach may be
unsuccessful but may be enough to send some showers/storms and
outflow boundaries into our area resulting in some cooling Tuesday
and Wednesday. The main frontal push looks like it will probably
be delayed until just beyond the range of this forecast so the
greatest rain chances and bigger cooldown will have to wait as
well.

Made some minor adjustments to guidance temperatures based on
observed values the past couple days but overall they are in the
ballpark the next couple days.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 93 73 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
fsm 95 70 96 71 / 0 0 10 0
mlc 93 71 94 72 / 0 0 10 10
bvo 92 66 93 67 / 0 0 0 0
fyv 87 64 88 65 / 0 0 10 0
byv 88 67 89 68 / 0 0 10 10
mko 91 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
Mio 89 71 90 72 / 0 0 0 0
f10 93 70 94 71 / 0 0 10 10
hhw 94 70 95 71 / 0 0 10 10

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...07
long term....05
aviation...21

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