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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
607 am CDT Friday Aug 22 2014

Discussion...

The 12z taf discussion is included below.

&&

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period...as a ridge of hi
pressure aloft dominates. Srly surface winds will be light to start the
day...picking up by 16z with gusts to near 20 kts for the NE OK
sites. The winds should die off again by the end of the day.

Lacy

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 357 am CDT Friday Aug 22 2014/

Discussion...
breezy south southwesterly winds and mostly sunny skies are
expected today across the County Warning Area as a ridge of high pressure builds
back over the Southern Plains. These conditions will help to
continue warm and humid conditions this afternoon over much of the
County Warning Area. A few locations yesterday observed heat indices of 105+
degrees...and with temperatures a bit warmer expected this afternoon
parts of northeast Oklahoma could reach heat advisory criteria.
Thus...have issued a heat advisory for this afternoon over part of
northeast Oklahoma. Depending on how much the southerly winds mix
things out this afternoon...additional counties might have to be
added to the advisory.

Drier air is forecast to filter into the region over the
weekend...which should keep heat indices just below heat advisory
criteria even with temperatures in the upper 90s/around 100 degrees being
possible. These conditions underneath high pressure should
continue across the County Warning Area into the beginning of next week ahead of a
potential shortwave and frontal boundary.

Extended model solutions continue to vary on location and timing
of a shortwave trough moving through the plains the middle to latter
half of next week. Latest run of the GFS brings the wave and
frontal boundary through Wednesday/Thursday with the European model (ecmwf)
Thursday/Friday. Used a blended model solution along with previous
forecast for details...and will carry slight chance probability of precipitation Wednesday
into Friday with possible cooler temperatures late next week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 98 78 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
fsm 96 74 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
mlc 96 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
bvo 100 74 100 73 / 10 0 0 0
fyv 94 72 95 71 / 0 0 0 0
byv 94 74 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
mko 96 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0
Mio 97 74 98 72 / 10 0 0 0
f10 97 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
hhw 96 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...heat advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 PM Friday for okz054-okz055-
okz056-okz060-okz061.

Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Aviation...30

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