Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
919 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015
the forecast is currently right on track. Have only made a few
minor changes to the grids this evening. Updated zone forecast product has been sent out
mainly to make the wording more relevant.
Previous discussion... /issued 620 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015/
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Areas of showers and thunderstorms will work into eastern OK
this evening...and eventually into northwest Arkansas after
midnight. Expect some MVFR ceilings to develop overnight and
linger into Wednesday morning. Breezy south winds will
persist through the period...with stronger gusts developing
later Wednesday morning.
Previous discussion... /issued 306 PM CDT Tuesday may 5 2015/
widely scattered showers/thunderstorms have developed early this
afternoon across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with
surface heating. Additional thunderstorms will likely spread into
eastern Oklahoma this evening into the overnight hours as main
upper low...currently near The Four Corners region...lifts
northeast into the Central Plains. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible tonight into Wednesday morning before precipitation
begins to weaken by Wednesday afternoon.
Active weather pattern will continue for the next several days and
into the weekend with several rounds of thunderstorms likely including
the potential for severe weather/heavy rainfall. Storms that
develop along the dry line Wednesday afternoon/evening could move
into eastern Oklahoma Wednesday night...but should begin to weaken
as activity moves into a more stable air-mass. Thunderstorms will
again develop west of the area Thursday afternoon/evening along
the dry line and could persist much of Thursday night as low
level jet begins to strengthen. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible especially across northeast Oklahoma as low level moisture
continues to increase.
Next upper level storm system...currently off the northwest Pacific coast...
will move into the Desert Southwest on Friday. Deep Pacific moisture
plume ahead of feature will overspread the region by this time
with the potential for another round of heavy rainfall...including
severe weather. Soils will likely be saturated by this time from
previous rains with the increased potential for flash flooding.
Severe weather threat will likely continue through the weekend as
main upper low moves into the Central Plains by Sunday.