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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1152 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Have added wind shear remarks at all sites overnight as winds off
the deck remain strong from the north northeast. Otherwise...VFR
conditions will prevail at all sites through the taf period.



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 722 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014/

Discussion...

The cold front is now down near the Red River as of 7 PM...with
the dry air push lagging behind some. Showers and storms over
south central and southeast Oklahoma are moving away from the
forecast area and gradually dissipating with the setting of the
giant energy Ball. Thus...will maintain the going dry forecast
after 00z. With the dry air moving in across the north...clearing
skies and gradually subsiding winds as we get closer to the
surface anticyclone center...lows will be rather chilly by morning
at the usual cold spots in the 40s. Updated text products sent.

Lacy

Previous discussion... /issued 602 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014/

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Lingering shower activity has pushed south of all taf
sites...therefore VFR conditions are expected at all sites through
the taf period.

Previous discussion... /issued 400 PM CDT sun Sep 21 2014/

Discussion...

The weather will be rather tranquil overall over the next 7
days. A cold front is making its way south across the region
today...ushering in much drier air with it. The drier air and
clearing skies will allow temperatures to really drop off tonight...with
some 40s likely at the typical cold spots...50s and low 60s
elsewhere. Very fall-like days are coming up to start the work
week...so get out and enjoy if you can.

As we approach the middle of this week...deep layer moisture will
take the Scenic Route up the southern High Plains and northeast into
the central Lower Plains. Meanwhile...a weakness in the middle/upper
height fields develops as the pattern amplifies significantly
upstream...thus creating a temporary split flow block. This
amplification will be caused by the buckling of a strong extended
jet across the North Pacific...and will result in a large scale
ridge over much of the Continental U.S. Next week with the main belt of the
westerlies clear up in Canada. The deep layer moist plume associated
with the middle/upper height weakness will likely stay to our
west...and thus we should stay dry here. Any low rain chances will
be confined west of Tulsa. By the end of the week...the middle level
ridge shifts northeast over the Great Lakes...and takes whatever is
left of this system north away from the area.

After some nice days to start the week...temperatures will gradually
modify and low level moisture will gradually return...so i'm not
ready to write off the warm and humid days just yet. Until a
system is able to clear out the Gulf...moisture will not be far
away and can return rather quickly.

Lacy

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$



Aviation...23

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