Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
254 PM CDT Tuesday Apr 21 2015

Discussion...
Central Plains front will drop south tonight...settling to near the
OK/Texas border by Wednesday morning. Low-level moisture will improve
through the night...with lower 60s dewpoints likely across southeast OK by
Wednesday morning. A marginal severe weather threat will exist early
Wednesday...as elevated storms north of the frontal boundary will
pose a hail threat. Some of this activity may fester into the
afternoon...with the severe weather chances rising a bit as
instability increases. Additional thunderstorms may fire along the
dryline over western Texas late in the day...with thunderstorm clusters
working east and southeast overnight across parts of southern OK/northern Texas. Overall
severe weather threat mainly be for large hail and damaging
winds...although a low-end tornado threat will exist (from late
afternoon into the early evening) for storms near the synoptic
boundary and various outflow boundaries.

Surface ridging along with a more stable airmass should keep
Thursday fairly quiet...although have kept some low probability of precipitation for a few
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.

Severe weather chances...potentially significant at that...return by
Friday. European model (ecmwf)/GFS similar in ejecting an upper cyclone into the
Central Plains...with a strong 75+ knots middle-level jet setting up
across the Southern Plains. Forecast low-level moisture fields show
dryline surging into central OK by Friday afternoon...with
convection peeling off into eastern OK/western Arkansas late in the day and into
Friday evening. Main complicating factor will the quality of
moisture/instability as European model (ecmwf)/GFS also show significant quantitative precipitation forecast early in
the day across northern Texas. This could have a huge impact on where the
warm sector sets up during the afternoon...and the potential exists
(if European model (ecmwf)/GFS quantitative precipitation forecast verifies) that the warm sector mostly remains to
our south. This is still a few days away and we'll continue to tweak
the forecast so please stay tuned.

The weekend is looking mostly dry...with precipitation chances
returning by Sunday night and into early next week as another upper
system approaches. Extended models are showing varying timing
difference...so have kept probability of precipitation rather low at this time.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 51 66 51 68 / 20 40 40 40
fsm 54 73 56 67 / 10 40 40 30
mlc 56 74 57 71 / 10 60 40 30
bvo 48 65 45 66 / 20 30 20 30
fyv 48 67 49 62 / 20 40 30 30
byv 50 63 45 59 / 20 30 20 30
mko 52 71 52 68 / 20 50 40 30
Mio 48 65 45 64 / 20 30 20 40
f10 54 71 54 69 / 20 50 40 30
hhw 55 75 60 73 / 10 70 60 30

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...21
long term....18

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations