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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
545 am CDT sun Apr 20 2014

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Mainly VFR conditions expected...with a few areas of
showers and thunderstorms developing across eastern
Oklahoma later this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to become more widespread tonight...along
with MVFR ceilings.




&&

Previous discussion... /issued 300 am CDT sun Apr 20 2014/

Discussion...
a weak upper low will slowly traverse the Southern Plains over the
next couple of days... creating thunderstorm chances today into
Tuesday morning. Upper dynamics and instability are not especially
impressive with this system. Therefore the threat of severe weather
will be minimal. However... fairly generous rainfall amounts will be
possible... with a widespread half to one inch possible through
Tuesday morning. A cold front will move through the region Tuesday
with drier air filtering in behind.

The next chance for precipitation will begin Thursday morning as a
stronger upper system traverses the northern plains. A trailing cold
front will provide a chance for thunderstorms across the County Warning Area as it
sweeps through the area Thursday afternoon and evening. Upper
dynamics and instability appear to be more conducive to a few strong
storms developing in association with frontal passage.

A period of tranquil weather will then prevail going into next
weekend. Longer range models are hinting at a more substantial
system developing across the western Continental U.S. By late in the weekend...
which may prove to be our next troublemaker by Monday or Tuesday of
next week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 78 60 75 53 / 40 80 70 30
fsm 79 59 74 56 / 20 60 80 40
mlc 77 60 73 57 / 30 80 70 30
bvo 80 59 76 51 / 40 70 60 20
fyv 75 56 71 53 / 20 50 90 40
byv 77 55 72 52 / 10 40 90 50
mko 78 59 74 55 / 30 80 80 30
Mio 79 59 73 51 / 20 60 70 20
f10 76 60 74 55 / 30 80 70 30
hhw 77 60 74 59 / 20 50 60 50

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Aviation...18