Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
616 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Isolated showers across northwest Arkansas should dissipate soon after
00z... with more organized thunderstorms remaining just south of
kmlc through the evening. Areas of low ceilings and reduced visible
once again possible across northwest Arkansas with IFR conditions.
Thunderstorm chances will increase from the southwest later
tonight through Sunday morning.
Previous discussion... /issued 355 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015/
hit and miss showers/thunder tonight...mostly miss.
Northeast OK dry during evening fireworks. Highest
probability of precipitation far southeast OK Choctaw Pushmataha south Le
Flore where storms already in progress.
Marginal pop Sunday with most locations dry to end
this Holiday weekend.
Robust (for summer) upper support Monday night and
Tuesday-Tuesday night as upper trough & associated
cold front swing through the Southern Plains. Big
thunder fair bet as well as potential significant
rain given pwa values 1.7-2.1. European model (ecmwf) stalls front
over area into Wednesday and Thursday which would
heighten heavy rain / flood threat mid-week. Gw