Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
939 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015

Discussion...
little change previous forecast.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 622 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015/

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours.

Previous discussion... /issued 327 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 28 2015/

Discussion...
high heat index values continue this afternoon and will persist
through tomorrow ahead of a weak cold front which is expected to
push into NE OK by Wednesday afternoon. Pooling dewpoints along and
immediately ahead of the boundary will offset any potential
cooling to ensure advisory criteria heat index readings on
Wednesday.

Precipitation chances will initially favor locations north of the
boundary Wednesday night through Thursday morning with a focus nearer the
surface boundary Thursday afternoon / evening. Overall warm middle level
temperatures and synoptic scale subsidence beneath upper high center is
expected to reduce the overall coverage of precipitation. Temperatures
will trend downward...though an axis of high dewpoints may persist
through Thursday which may again push advisory level heat
indices.

The Post frontal airmass will briefly overspread the entire area
Friday before low level thermal fields again expand and push temperatures
near normal for the weekend. The upper high looks to remain
centered over the western states which will keep middle level temperatures a
bit cooler which may support an uptick in diurnal terrain induced
convection...which is also supported by climatology.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 80 98 75 93 / 0 10 20 20
fsm 77 100 78 97 / 0 10 10 20
mlc 74 98 74 95 / 0 10 10 30
bvo 74 95 73 90 / 10 10 20 20
fyv 73 93 73 89 / 0 10 10 20
byv 74 94 70 89 / 0 10 10 20
mko 76 96 76 92 / 0 10 10 20
Mio 75 95 70 91 / 0 10 10 20
f10 74 98 75 93 / 0 10 10 20
hhw 74 99 76 99 / 0 0 10 20

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...heat advisory from 11 am to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for okz049-053-
060>062-064>068-070>076.

Arkansas...heat advisory from 11 am to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for arz019-020-
029.

&&

$$

Short term...21
long term....21

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations