Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
621 am CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
For the 12z tafs... VFR conditions will prevail at all sites
throughout the 24 hour forecast period. There will be a slight
chance that showers or thunderstorms could affect kfsm or kmlc
today or tonight. However... low coverage and probability
preclude inclusion in the tafs.
Previous discussion... /issued 259 am CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015/
frontal boundary...currently located across far southeast Oklahoma
.Will likely become diffuse today with deeper moisture surging
back across the area tonight into Wednesday. Hot and humid
conditions will continue for the next few days with heat indices
running in the 100 to 103 degree range.
As northwest flow aloft continues...potential exists for mesoscale convective system to
clip far northwest Arkansas tonight and possibly portions of
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas again Wednesday or Wednesday
night. Heavier precipitation amounts appears at this time to remain
further north and east across southern Missouri. Locally heavy
rainfall and damaging downburst winds will however be possible
with any storms that do occur...especially on Wednesday.
Thunderstorm chances will continue to increase Friday and
Saturday as a stronger upper disturbance moves out of the Central
Plains with the potential for multiple thunderstorm complexes to
impact the region into the Holiday weekend. Uncertainty remains
regarding exact timing/evolution of systems including the location
of the heavier rainfall axis. However...high precipitable water
values...coupled with the potential for slow storm motions
suggest the likelihood for localized flash flooding in areas where
storms train over the same locations.
Precipitation chances could linger into the early part of next
week across northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas as upper high
remains just west of the area.