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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
936 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015

Discussion...
low level moisture continues to creep northward across southeast
OK this evening as a warm front lifts north. Dew points
approaching 60 as far north as I-40 have resulted in some elevated
instability...however area 00z soundings showed a fairly
significant cap. With deeper moisture continuing to advect north
and the passage of a weak disturbance in west-northwest flow aloft the cap
should erode enough for at least isolated storms near and south of
I-40 later tonight as forecast. Only changes to going forecast
have been to raise temperatures and dew points slightly across southern
areas to account for latest trends.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 627 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015/

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR conditions expected for this evening for all sites. Area
of low clouds across Texas will expand north overnight...with
MVFR/occasional IFR ceilings/visibilities possible. Some question as to
how far north the low clouds will develop...and will include
a tempo at kbvo/ktul/krvs to reflect the uncertainty.

Previous discussion... /issued 350 PM CDT Monday Mar 30 2015/

Discussion...
upper ridge over Pacific northwest and upper trough off
coast of Baja California will remain tied as major trough eastern
Pacific kicks both east into Mississippi Valley midweek.

Upper disturbance moving through the southwest tier U.S.
Coupled with the west to east front now in Texas will
produce unsettled weather for eastern OK..and northwest
Arkansas through midweek. Thunder/showers most likely during
that period south of i40.

A cold front moving through Thursday will be main focus
for more widespread thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday
night into early Friday.

A short period of dry weather Saturday & Saturday night
will end with increasing chances for thunderstorms late
Sunday / Sunday night with a return to moist southerly
flow.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 55 80 59 80 / 10 20 20 40
fsm 56 81 60 77 / 10 30 30 50
mlc 58 76 62 77 / 20 40 40 40
bvo 48 80 53 80 / 0 10 20 30
fyv 49 76 52 74 / 10 20 20 40
byv 52 74 53 73 / 10 20 10 30
mko 55 76 58 77 / 10 20 30 40
Mio 51 77 53 77 / 0 10 10 30
f10 56 77 59 79 / 10 30 40 30
hhw 58 76 59 76 / 20 40 30 30

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...14
long term....99

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