Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
317 am CDT Thursday may 7 2015
scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through the
morning hours across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as
southerly low level jet of around 50 knots persists across
the region. Brief gusty winds and locally heavy rains will be
possible with the thunderstorms.
The active weather is expected to continue through the weekend
as an upper level low currently over Oregon dives south into Southern
California today enhancing the southwesterly flow aloft across
the Southern Plains. This upper level low will lift to the northeast
over the weekend and will be over the Central Plains by Sunday evening.
A subtle shortwave embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft will aid
thunderstorm development along the dry line across extreme western Oklahoma
later this afternoon...this activity will push into eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas this evening and into the overnight hours. There will
be enough elevated instability that some of these storms could become
strong to severe.
A similar scenario is expected to play out on Friday as thunderstorms
develop across western Oklahoma near the dry line and progress to the
east during the evening and overnight hours. However...there will also
be thunderstorms that will develop along a cold front that will be moving
into southeastern Kansas Friday evening. These storms will also move into
the area Friday night and continue into Saturday morning. This activity
will also have the potential be strong to severe with locally heavy
Saturday and Sunday have the potential to be most active days as far as
severe weather and heavy rain are concerned. This coincides with the
upper level low moving out of The Rockies and into the plains and bringing
it in closer proximity to the region. Thunderstorms will once again
develop along the dry line across western Oklahoma late Saturday afternoon
and push east into the area Saturday evening and into the overnight hours.
All modes of severe weather will be likely during this time-frame with
best chances of severe weather across eastern Oklahoma. Sunday will see
thunderstorms develop along a cold front as it moves into central Oklahoma
during the afternoon. A line of strong to severe will March across eastern
Oklahoma Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night in advance of the cold front.
Locally heavy rains will also be possible as storms train over the same location.
The shower and thunderstorm activity will come to an end on Monday as the
cold front exits to the east. In general...rainfall amounts will be in the
2 to 4 inch range from now through the weekend with some locations recording
upwards of 7 inches of rain. Flash flood headlines will most likely be needed
at sometime over the next few days.
More benign weather is anticipated for early next week as high pressure
builds into the region behind the departing storm system.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 80 67 83 67 / 40 70 40 70
fsm 84 67 83 69 / 40 60 40 70
mlc 80 67 82 69 / 40 50 20 60
bvo 80 63 83 65 / 40 70 40 70
fyv 79 64 80 66 / 40 70 50 70
byv 81 66 81 65 / 40 70 40 80
mko 79 65 82 66 / 40 60 40 70
Mio 80 64 81 66 / 40 70 40 80
f10 78 66 81 67 / 40 60 40 60
hhw 79 67 82 68 / 40 40 20 40