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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
531 PM CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Cold front to pass through the region overnight turning winds
northwesterly...with winds becoming gusty after sunrise. A period
of MVFR ceilings may skirt across far northwest Arkansas during the day
Thursday otherwise ceilings are expected to remain VFR.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 356 PM CST Wednesday Jan 28 2015/

Discussion...
forecast concerns this afternoon...include the high fire danger
threat through the early evening...followed by the chance for
mixed precipitation starting late Friday and persisting into
Sunday.

Unseasonably warm temperatures...paired with strong southerly
winds and low humidity vales will continue this afternoon. A red
flag warning remains in effect until 6pm. After
sunset...temperatures will quickly drop...raising humidity
levels...and ending the fire weather threat.

A cold front will push into the area this evening...shifting winds
out of the northwest and lowering temperatures back near normal
for late January. Winds will remain strong behind the front...with
gusts again reaching between 25 and 30 miles per hour across
northeast Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon.

An upper level low pressure system will develop and deepen over
the southwest US over the next couple days...directing moisture
northeast into the Southern Plains for the end of the week.
Precipitation will spread into the Southern Plains starting
Friday...mainly falling as rain as temperatures will remain too
warm for any frozen precipitation. The exception to this will be
in the higher elevation areas of northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas Saturday morning. The precipitation will then Switch Back
over to all rain during the day Saturday...with amounts ranging
between a half inch to an inch of total liquid. An upper level
wave and cold front will then drop into the area early
Sunday...dropping temperatures from north to south across the
forecast area. The bulk of the precipitation will have shifted
east by this time...however a switch over to a wintry mix of
rain...sleet...and snow will likely occur on the back side of the
precipitation field Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon.
Impacts at this time look minimal...with light amounts of snow
and sleet accumulations occurring across northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. The precipitation will come to an end by late
Sunday afternoon...with a period of dry and seasonal weather
persisting through the rest of the forecast period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 43 54 27 48 / 0 0 0 0
fsm 45 57 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
mlc 48 56 31 50 / 0 0 0 0
bvo 38 53 24 48 / 0 0 0 0
fyv 42 52 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
byv 42 50 27 47 / 0 0 0 0
mko 44 54 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
Mio 41 51 26 48 / 0 0 0 0
f10 44 54 29 48 / 0 0 0 0
hhw 47 59 32 53 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...red flag warning until 6 PM Wednesday for okz054-okz055-okz056-
okz059-okz060-okz061-okz064-okz065-okz066.

Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Aviation...07

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