Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
251 PM CDT Sat may 30 2015

Discussion...
the word for this forecast is "drier." Lets make that two
words..."much drier."

Significant river flooding will persist...but additional rainfall
over the next 7 days is looking very slim.

Remainder of Flash Flood Watch was allowed to expire earlier this
afternoon...with just some lingering showers across far southeast OK into
the early evening. This is ahead of a cold front that has pushed
through most of the forecast area...with noticeably lower dewpoints
(about 5-10f lower than yesterday) across the area. Low clouds
will likely linger well into the night...and could have some patchy
fog/drizzle late tonight across NE OK/northwest Arkansas.

Slow moving upper wave will dip southeast across our forecast area on
Sunday...and eventually close off over the Gulf states for much of
next week. This will put our area in relatively dry northwesterly flow
aloft...and modest upper ridging/rising heights will result in a
gradual warming trend through next week. Certainly not out of the
question to see a few diurnal showers/storms over our eastern sections
in closer proximity to the upper low...but coverage/chances too slim
to mention in the forecast for now.

Extended models attempt to bring a weak wave into the southern/Central
Plains going into the weekend...although GFS looks overdone crashing
the middle-level heights. Have included some low probability of precipitation for Friday night
into Saturday near the Kansas/MO borders...but again confidence is quite
low.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 69 55 75 55 / 10 10 0 0
fsm 75 58 76 60 / 20 10 10 10
mlc 74 56 75 54 / 20 10 10 0
bvo 68 50 74 50 / 10 10 0 0
fyv 69 53 72 52 / 10 10 10 10
byv 74 54 70 52 / 20 10 10 10
mko 71 55 74 56 / 10 10 0 0
Mio 67 53 71 52 / 10 10 10 10
f10 72 55 74 55 / 10 10 10 0
hhw 78 59 77 58 / 30 20 10 10

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...20
long term....18

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations