Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
526 PM CST Monday Nov 30 2015
drier air in the lower levels will continue to advect in from the
west this evening and result in eventual scouring out of low
ceilings, at least across eastern OK. This will result in
transition from MVFR to VFR conditions in the 02-05z time frame,
however radiational cooling effects may ultimately lead to areas
of fog later tonight. Farther east, dry air will hold off and
thus, northwest Arkansas locations will likely remain at IFR for a good portion
of the night. All areas will transition to VFR after 15z Tuesday.
Previous discussion... /issued 333 PM CST Monday Nov 30 2015/
the storm system that has resulted in days of low clouds and rain
is finally on its way out. Drier air is approaching from the
northwest and the northwest part of the forecast area may even get
a peek at the long lost sun before it sets today, while the rest
of US will have to wait until Tuesday. The main theme this week
will be a slow warmup, with just a minor setback Wednesday
following the passage of a weak cold front.
As is often the case with warm, sunny, low dewpoint days in the
cold season, the raw model depiction of the near surface thermal
fields appear greatly underdone Friday through the weekend, and
this contributes to the blended high temperatures being much too
cool. The GFS MOS guidance is able to somewhat offset this and
will almost certainly verify better than the raw model solutions.
This forecast is still cooler than the GFS MOS Saturday, and may
well be too cool given the progged 900/850 millibar temperatures,
progged thicknesses, and anticipated full sunshine. Temperatures
well into the 60s are certainly possible.
Increasing cloudiness Sunday may knock temperatures back a bit,
and a few showers may develop during the afternoon as a strong
upper level storm system moves into the area. This system will be
moisture starved, but its strength warrants at least a mention of
showers late Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures looks to remain
mild behind this system heading into early next week.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 29 52 30 51 / 0 0 0 0
fsm 33 55 32 52 / 10 0 0 0
mlc 29 54 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
bvo 25 51 27 50 / 0 0 0 0
fyv 27 51 27 48 / 10 0 0 0
byv 31 51 30 47 / 10 0 0 0
mko 29 52 30 52 / 10 0 0 0
Mio 29 50 28 48 / 10 0 0 0
f10 29 53 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
hhw 33 54 32 55 / 10 0 0 0