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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
333 am CDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

Discussion...

Thunderstorms have blossomed over eastern Kansas within the past
hour or two in response to a disturbance in the Central Plains and
the approach of a strong upper jet. Movement of the current
activity confirms the local WRF and hrrr solutions that keep the
bulk of this north of the Oklahoma and Arkansas borders until this
afternoon. Will continue with small probability of precipitation in far northeast Oklahoma
and far northwest Arkansas through the morning hours...with higher
chances this afternoon and into tonight. Ongoing patchy but
occasionally dense fog in northwest Arkansas should be gone
shortly after sunrise. Per surface observation...visibilities have varied
wildly this morning at any one location which could make for a
difficult commute especially in the Benton and Washington
counties. Afternoon temperatures today look to be above normal in
most areas...with some spots along and west of Highway 75 likely
to touch 90 degrees.

Another round of thunderstorms should develop and affect a bigger
section of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late tonight and
perhaps into tomorrow as another segment of the upper jet
strengthens to our east and a disturbance moves through Missouri
and Arkansas. A brief drying trend still appears to be in the
offing for Friday and into Friday night...as upper ridging quickly
builds into the plains.

The pattern will remain fairly progressive...however...as a strong
cold front is still on track for the weekend. With the remnants of
Odile moving into the region...a heavy rain event continues to
look likely somewhere in the southern or Central Plains. With the
exception of yesterdays 12z run of the European model (ecmwf)...most medium range
model solutions still place the heavy rain axis to our
north...while still allowing for some beneficial rain amounts
across parts of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
Timing of the heaviest rain currently looks to be between 18z
Saturday and 06z Sunday. The rain should clear quickly enough to
allow for a dry but cool beginning to next week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 89 69 88 69 / 10 30 30 10
fsm 86 68 85 67 / 20 40 40 10
mlc 88 71 87 68 / 10 20 30 10
bvo 90 67 87 67 / 10 40 30 10
fyv 83 65 83 64 / 30 60 40 10
byv 82 64 80 64 / 50 60 40 10
mko 87 68 86 67 / 10 20 40 10
Mio 85 67 84 66 / 50 60 40 10
f10 87 69 87 68 / 10 20 30 10
hhw 88 70 88 68 / 10 20 40 10

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...05
long term....22

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