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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
245 PM CDT Tuesday Jun 30 2015

Discussion...
afternoon surface analysis shows a weak front draped across
NE and extending into MO...with hot/muggy conditions to its
south. This boundary will be the focus for late afternoon and
evening convection...although it appears that most of the activity
should remain to our northwest tonight...closer to surface/850 mb
front. The frontal boundary is expected to slide southward to the
Kansas/OK border Wednesday afternoon...and southwesterly low-level
jet will aid in maintaining convection along this boundary. Expect
showers/storms to eventually sag southward into parts of northeast
OK/northwest Arkansas by late afternoon and into the evening...with
forecast instability and bulk shear (in excess of 40 kts) supportive
of some severe storms.

Several periods of showers/thunderstorms are expected from
Thursday night and continuing into the Holiday weekend...as a
weak frontal boundary remains across the region under the
persistent northwesterly upper flow. The severe weather chances
don't appear overly high...but high moisture content coupled with
relatively slow storm movement/cell training will result in areas
of locally heavy rainfall. Still plenty of uncertainties
concerning the timing/placement of precipitation...and we'll
continue to fine tune over the next few days.

Precipitation chances should lower going into early next week as
middle-level heights rise and northwesterly flow weakens.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 76 95 77 93 / 10 20 30 30
fsm 73 95 74 93 / 20 20 20 30
mlc 74 94 76 91 / 10 10 20 20
bvo 74 96 73 91 / 10 20 30 40
fyv 69 90 73 89 / 20 30 40 40
byv 72 88 73 87 / 20 40 40 50
mko 74 92 74 92 / 10 20 20 30
Mio 73 93 74 89 / 10 30 40 40
f10 74 93 75 92 / 10 10 20 20
hhw 73 93 73 90 / 10 10 10 20

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...30
long term....18

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