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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
252 PM CDT Thursday Apr 17 2014

Discussion...
cold front pushing through northeast Oklahoma this afternoon in
response to approaching upper trough currently moving into
western Oklahoma. Low level moisture remains limited ahead of
front and therefore only expected isolated to widely scattered
showers into the evening before system shifts east.

Weak high pressure builds into the region tonight into Friday
before return flow develops by late Friday afternoon across
eastern Oklahoma. Warming trend will continue on Saturday ahead of
next upper trough which is expected to move out of the Desert
Southwest on Sunday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Sunday morning across eastern Oklahoma in association
with developing low level jet/larger scale ascent.

Additional thunderstorms will likely develop Sunday afternoon
along dry line over western Oklahoma and this activity could move
east into the area Sunday night. Thunderstorm chances will
continue ahead of cold front which will move into the area during
the day Monday. Although instability will remain somewhat marginal
during this time....with the stronger deep layer shear located
south of area...a few strong storms will be possible depending on
timing of front/surface heating with the best thunderstorm chances
across southeast Oklahoma Monday afternoon.

Nice warm up expected into the middle of next week as upper ridge
builds into the Southern Plains. At least limited thunderstorm
chances return by Thursday as series of upper waves move out of
the central/southern rockies south of main upper low.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 43 72 53 76 / 10 0 10 10
fsm 46 72 52 76 / 20 10 0 0
mlc 45 73 52 75 / 30 0 0 0
bvo 37 72 48 78 / 10 0 10 10
fyv 40 69 45 73 / 20 0 0 0
byv 41 70 48 73 / 20 0 0 0
mko 44 72 51 75 / 20 0 10 10
Mio 40 73 51 77 / 10 0 0 10
f10 45 71 52 75 / 20 0 0 0
hhw 48 73 53 76 / 30 0 0 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...20
long term....12