Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
937 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015
showers continue across NE corner of OK and parts of northwest Arkansas
with very little in the way of lightning noted in past hour or
two. Will be watching a couple of areas for additional development
overnight...especially north of boundary located across southern
Kansas. Would expect convection to increase in the 06-09z time
frame as latest NAM suggests and eventually expand south toward
NE Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Additional storms continue across
central and SW Kansas but have shown downward trend recently.
Overall forecast for probability of precipitation after 06z through Wednesday morning appear
reasonable...have lowered probability of precipitation for all but extreme NE OK and northwest Arkansas
for the evening period. Updated products will be out momentarily.
Previous discussion... /issued 627 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015/
The 00z taf discussion is included below.
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Tstorm potential will be the main concern this taf period. The
best potential will be over in northwest Arkansas this evening with multiple
sources of data suggesting development there. This will be
followed by the NE OK sites after 06z with storms coming in from
Kansas. Finally...northwest Arkansas could see another round of storms in the
morning...either from what is left over from the NE OK
activity...or new development in the region. MVFR conditions are
possible if/when storms affect the sites...otherwise VFR should
prevail. Sites kmlc and kfsm may be too far south to be affected
by much this taf period.
Previous discussion... /issued 353 PM CDT Tuesday Aug 4 2015/
a shortwave over the Central Plains will move southeast across
Missouri during the day Wednesday. At the same time...a surface
boundary will remain in or near northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
occur overnight into Wednesday to the north of the surface
boundary with at least some threat of severe weather...especially
during the day Wednesday.
The concern Wednesday will be a hot and unstable airmass that will
reside just to the southwest of the frontal boundary. Convective
outflow may push southwest into this hot and unstable airmass
during the day Wednesday and if the cap is not too strong...a
greater severe threat may develop. Will need to watch convective
trends closely late tonight and especially into the day Wednesday.
The evolution of convection Wednesday will play the main role in
determining the location of the surface boundary and potential
convection Thursday and maybe even into Friday as well. The trend
with time will be for upper ridging to begin to dominate so
overall storm coverage should lessen with time and be displaced
farther to the northeast. A hot and humid airmass will overspread
the entire forecast area by the weekend and heat headlines will
likely be needed late this week through the weekend.
A cold front is expected to move south across the area early next
week but with the upper ridge still in control...convective
coverage with the front is likely to be quite limited. Slightly
cooler and less humid weather is likely to follow the passage of
this front next week.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days with
uncertainties in convective evolution playing a large role in how
hot...or not...it gets the next 2-3 days.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 71 92 73 95 / 50 40 30 10
fsm 73 94 75 96 / 30 30 50 30
mlc 75 95 78 97 / 10 20 20 10
bvo 69 90 71 93 / 60 60 30 10
fyv 69 88 70 89 / 60 60 50 30
byv 69 86 70 88 / 70 60 60 30
mko 71 93 74 95 / 30 30 40 20
Mio 69 86 69 89 / 70 60 50 20
f10 73 94 76 96 / 20 20 20 10
hhw 75 97 77 99 / 10 0 0 10