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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Topeka Kansas
1140 PM CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

..update to aviation forecast discussion...

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 331 PM CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Only a bit of cirrus cloud this afternoon from upper southwest flow
on the back side of the upper ridge. Early morning elevated
convection exited northeast Kansas by late-morning as the ridge axis
slid slightly farther east. Weak warm air advection in the lower to
mid levels in south to southwest winds leading to slightly warmer

Am not anticipating another late nigh/early morning round of precip
with the ridge axis in place. With a more southerly low-mid level
wind, there are even some indications of weak downglide/weak cold
air advection aloft. Other than the precip differences, tonight into
Friday looking very similar to last night and today. May have some
thicker/more persistent high cloud into Friday morning but moderate
south winds return by late morning for another day of highs in the
lower and middle 90s.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 331 PM CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

An upper level ridge will extend across the southern and Central
Plains Friday night through Saturday night. By Sunday an upper level
trough across the western states will move east into the northern
and central rockies on Sunday and suppress the upper ridge to the
southeast. The upper level trough will move across the northern
plains Sunday and Sunday night and will sweep a cold front southeast
across eastern Kansas Sunday night with the front stalling somewhere
over east central or southeast Kansas. The front looks to lift north
on Monday as a warm front in response to another trough moving
across the northern and Central Plains. The front looks to push
south again Tuesday and then stall across southern Kansas on
Wednesday. Some model timing differences exist late in the period
with the speed and strength of the upper level trough on Wednesday.
Latest runs of the operational models suggest that systems will be
east of the forecast area Wednesday night with dry forecast expected
Wednesday night and into early Thursday.

Precipitation chances increase Sunday afternoon and Sunday night
with the passage of the front. With the upper trough moving through
along with the lingering frontal boundary will see continues chances
from Labor Day into Wednesday.

Temperatures mainly above normal through Monday with near normal
temps expected through mid to late week.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1139 PM CDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

For the 06z tafs, VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
few isolated showers will be possible overnight over portions of
north central KS, however do not anticipate any activity over the
taf sites at this time. Expect southerly winds to become gusty once
again during the afternoon hours with gusts upwards of 20-25kts.


Top watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...65
long term...53

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