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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Great Falls Montana
445 am MST Thu Nov 27 2014

Aviation section updated


Today through Saturday....very strong west flow ahead of an upper
level low pressure trof is moving across central Montana. Winds
aloft will continue to strengthen this afternoon and evening. The
High Wind Warning for The Rockies will continue. Will not issue for
eastern Glacier County although some concern here as well,
especially to the west near the slopes of The Rockies. However,
mixing level should remain quite low and do not expect upper levels
to mix down. But not real confident and quite possible for some
gusts to occur. Radar indicates light precip east. Forecast
soundings still show a warm layer at lower levels and will generally
include mention of freezing rain over the eastern zones where pops
are above slight chance. A cold front will move from Canada across
the border late afternoon and move south through the zones during
the evening. Current timing shows low-level moisture crossing the
Canadian border as early as 2 in the afternoon, into Cut Bank by 5,
and into Great Falls during the evening. This front will have a
tight surface pressure with it and strong gusty winds are expected
north of the front. Temperatures will fall rapidly and Saturday
will see bitter cold temps across the north and central zones. Zelzer

Saturday night through Thursday...very cold air will continue to
move into the region on Saturday night. With skies clearing out a
bit towards Sunday morning over north central Montana...morning
temperatures of 10 below to 20 below look good. The ec model
continues to forecast lows near 25 below...and depending on much
snow cover/how clear it actually gets could allow for temperatures
to fall this far. There will be some light snow Saturday night
through Sunday...but mainly in the mountains of southwest Montana. This
will be a short cold snap...with temperatures starting to warm back
up on Monday. For Tue thru Thursday...mainly I went close to climo the GFS/ec have slightly different solutions...but with no
major storms expected...I did not want to go much above climo pops
at this time. Temperatures will begin to moderate...with highs
near/slightly above normal by the mid portions of next week. Brusda


updated 1145z.
A small area of rain/freezing rain could affect the Havre area
through 15z this morning. Otherwise expect VFR conditions over much
of the region...but winds will be on the increase. A steady snow is
expected to start on Friday evening over the north and spread
southward by Saturday morning. Brusda


Preliminary point temps/pops...
gtf 53 41 51 0 / 10 10 10 50
ctb 47 37 45 -7 / 10 10 30 100
hln 49 35 49 20 / 10 10 20 40
bzn 47 31 48 29 / 10 20 20 40
wey 38 28 38 23 / 20 30 30 60
dln 49 35 48 33 / 10 20 20 30
hvr 45 31 43 1 / 50 10 20 80
lwt 52 37 51 10 / 20 10 10 40


Tfx watches/warnings/advisories...
High Wind Warning until midnight MST Friday night northern Rocky
Mountain front...southern Rocky Mountain front.




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