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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Great Falls Montana
1132 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015

Updated aviation discussion

Discussion...have allowed the red flag warning to expire but am
not making any updates to the going forecast. Daytime fair weather
cumulus clouds and gusty westerly winds are diminishing as
expected. Temperatures appear to be on track for overnight with a
warming trend continuing through the remainder of the week. Mpj


updated 0532z.

VFR conditions will prevail under mainly clear skies. Winds will be
generally less than 10 kts and have moderate confidence in forecast
wind speeds and directions. Blank


Fire weather...

Humidities will continue to trend lower and temperatures will
trend higher through Saturday. After today, winds are expected to
be relatively light through Friday, there is a potential for
breezy winds along the Rocky Mountain front on Saturday. This
situation will continue to be monitored for potential fire
weather highlights.


Previous discussion...
/issued 523 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015/

Tonight through Friday...a weak disturbance in the west-northwest
flow aloft is bringing scattered middle and high level cloudiness and
breezy westerly winds to much of the area this afternoon. There
are also a few thunderstorms that have developed in southern
Saskatchewan, but the gusty downslope winds should hinder storm
development along the hi-line. An upper level ridge of high
pressure will then build into Montana for the remainder of the
work week, continuing dry and warming conditions with mostly clear
skies. Temperatures will warm to between 5 and 10 degrees above
normal by Friday, when highs should reach the upper 80s to lower
90s for most of north central and southwest Montana. Winds should
also remain westerly throughout the period, but they will
generally be lighter than they are this afternoon. Coulston

Friday night through Wednesday...the forecast area will be under
the influence of an upper ridge. The airmass will start off dry
but by late in the weekend some moisture will move into the
forecast area from the southwest. Areas of moisture will continue
to flow through the upper ridge which combined with daytime
heating will lead to some showers and thunderstorms. Models are
not in great agreement with these areas of moisture so have
decided to go with chances of precipitation beginning Monday that
are close to climatological averages. Over the weekend
temperatures will be in the upper 80s to middle 90s but as more
clouds move into the forecast area high temperatures will more
likely be in the 80s. Blank


Preliminary point temps/pops...
gtf 54 87 55 93 / 0 0 0 0
ctb 50 86 51 92 / 0 0 0 0
hln 53 88 55 94 / 0 0 0 0
bzn 50 87 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
wey 33 78 38 82 / 0 0 0 0
dln 47 85 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
hvr 54 86 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
lwt 53 84 55 90 / 0 0 0 0


Tfx watches/warnings/advisories...



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